Aslan's Weekly Chris Barnes/Joe Slowinski Statistics Nerd Thread: Part IV

[Aslan]

Next Topic: Spare Shooting

http://i1166.photobucket.com/albums/q616/Aslan2014/56090221-b9a6-418a-956e-1ce0f9ccf8b8_zpsaab8042c.png (http://s1166.photobucket.com/user/Aslan2014/media/56090221-b9a6-418a-956e-1ce0f9ccf8b8_zpsaab8042c.png.html)

Specifically, single-pin spare shooting.

So;

1) Is this a useful stat? Something you pay attention to? Or should? Why/why not?

2) What does the graph say about this bowler's skill/lack there of? Can anything be drawn from it?

Me personally;
Like strike %, this is a key stat I track. There are nights where I'll score well but overall not be happy with my game because my single-pin spare shooting is less than perfect. And there will be other days where my scores will be lower but I won't feel as bad if I went 90-100% on single-pin spares.

Is it useful?

I think it is because overall spare shooting or multi-pin spare shooting can fluctuate a great deal since multi-pin spares all have varying degrees of difficulty. Leave a bunch of 3/4 buckets…you might shoot good. But, you leave some trickier ones and suddenly you're staring at a 30% spare shooting night. Single-pin spares are all generally the same with only slight increases in difficulty as you move towards the corners.

And, as your game gets better and better…single-pin spares should dominate the leaves. Most pros will either strike or leave a single-pin. Maybe an occasional split. But a bunch of multi-pin spares is relatively rare.

As to what the graph shows about MY game…well…I think the graph shows a steady improvement from around 65% to nearly 72% over time. Then there was a bit of a regression near the pink line as I began to make changes to my approach/timing/game/coaching….down to around 70%. The yellow line is where I switched to plastic for spares…which has led to another very slight regression to just over 69.5%.

So…no…it really doesn't shed much light on anything other than me having a very slight average improvement over time and thus far the plastic experiment is not helping the single pin spare %…but only by a hair.

[J Anderson]

What's up with the time scale? Some blocks appear to be one month, others two.

"Single-pin spares are all generally the same with only slight increases in difficulty as you move towards the corners." Only the corner pins are truly more difficult than a five pin. I admit that I know a few bowlers who throw very slow hooks that are only 50/50 on the 6 pin, but for the rest of us it shouldn't be any harder than a five pin.

Would probably be more useful to track percentage for individual pins, i.e. % of ten pins made, % of 6 pins made, etc. But then again the sample size might be too small to be useful unless you're bowling dozens of games per week.

[MICHAEL]

Lion MAN,,,, are you SURE that's not your EKG, or EGG??? I showed it to a doctor I work out with, and he said, Dial 911, and ask for Bowling HELP, like NOW!

[Aslan]

"Single-pin spares are all generally the same with only slight increases in difficulty as you move towards the corners." Only the corner pins are truly more difficult than a five pin. I admit that I know a few bowlers who throw very slow hooks that are only 50/50 on the 6 pin, but for the rest of us it shouldn't be any harder than a five pin.
That is true...BUT...the reason I think a 4-pin or 6-pin is 'slightly' harder than a 8 or 9 which are 'slightly' harder than a 2 or 3 which are 'slightly' harder than a 5...which is slightly harder than a 1 is this:

For a 1-pin...its your strike shot. For a 5-pin, it's basically your strike shot. For a 2 or 3 pin...it's essentially your strike shot with a minor adjustment. Same thing for the 8 or 9 pins. BUT...once you get to the 4 or 6 pins...that is usually where you switch to plastic (if you haven't already) because depending on the pattern, the strike ball may not work. So now you're switching balls and switching lines. And obviously the corner pins are the same but add the difficulty of not hacing the same miss room on the gutter side.


Would probably be more useful to track percentage for individual pins, i.e. % of ten pins made, % of 6 pins made, etc. But then again the sample size might be too small to be useful unless you're bowling dozens of games per week.

You're in luck! For the data displayed, here are the individual pin %s:

1-pin: 6/11; 54%
2-pin: 117/148; 79%
3-pin: 146/183; 79%
4-pin: 199/276; 72%
5-pin: 175/222; 78%
6-pin: 228/303; 75%
7-pin: 181/291; 62%
8-pin: 22/33; 66%
9-pin: 110/141; 78%
10-pin: 330/562; 58%

So, the 1-pin aside which is a rare, rare leave...not sure why it's only at 54%....MOST of the single-pin spare shots are in the high 70s except for the 7 and 8 pins which are in the 60s and the dreaded single 10-pin in the high 50s.

Looking at the results individually like this, I might take the position that rather than track "single-pin spare %"...it might be just as useful to track just the 10-pin because it's the only real "problem child" of the group. My only hesitation with that is, lately the 7-pin has become a real problem for me to hit. so if I go 9/10 on 10-pins and 1/6 on 7-pins...but only track the 10s...then I'm not focusing on a problem.

[Amyers]

I tend to go back and forth with the 10 pin/7 pin shooting if I'm hitting one I'm missing the other it's just wierd

[vdubtx]

1 pin only 54%?? That should be fixed stat!!

[Aslan]

1 pin only 54%?? That should be fixed stat!!

It's hard to "fix" when you've left it 11 times in 9485 shots (0.12%). So I need to take 833 shots in order to leave a 1-pin. And just making it ONCE more...I'd be up to 58%!!

Only other leave I've left exactly 11 times in 9485 shots??? The 6-9. I'm 72% on that one though.

What I REALLY need to fix is leaving the 1-2-8. Left that 132 times and am only 53% at picking it up. Thats a hard leave for a right hander. Lately I've been trying to throw a back-up ball at it with not much luck.

[Amyers]

Yeah I hate the 1-2-8 but don't leave them that often and usually when I do I figure that's what I get for throwing a bad shot and leaving that mess up there. I have to have screwed up pretty bad to leave a head pin standing though maybe once a series for me.

[Aslan]

I leave the headpin a lot more than I should. But as I learn to "stay behind the ball" (rather than up the side), I lose the room for error. If the ball falls off my hand and I can't go "through" the ball...it's gonna miss right. So right now, I leave a lot of 1-2, 1-2-4, 1-2-4-7, , 1-2-8, 1-2-4-10, etc... because I'm "dropping" the ball. It's also because the thumb hole is to big in many cases and my hand isn't under the ball. Add to that mess...that my timing went from early to late...and now my shoulders don't square up to the foul line when I release...another cause of missing right...and you have a recipe for disaster.

The only "good" news is I split a LOT less than most bowlers. If I have a bad release...I miss right of the headpin. If I have a good release...strike or a 6-10 or a single-pin leave. Like, last league night...had one split the whole night. Most nights it's 1-3.

[Amyers]

I leave the headpin a lot more than I should. But as I learn to "stay behind the ball" (rather than up the side), I lose the room for error. If the ball falls off my hand and I can't go "through" the ball...it's gonna miss right. So right now, I leave a lot of 1-2, 1-2-4, 1-2-4-7, , 1-2-8, 1-2-4-10, etc... because I'm "dropping" the ball. It's also because the thumb hole is to big in many cases and my hand isn't under the ball. Add to that mess...that my timing went from early to late...and now my shoulders don't square up to the foul line when I release...another cause of missing right...and you have a recipe for disaster.

The only "good" news is I split a LOT less than most bowlers. If I have a bad release...I miss right of the headpin. If I have a good release...strike or a 6-10 or a single-pin leave. Like, last league night...had one split the whole night. Most nights it's 1-3.

I'm not sure that "I can't hit the pocket consistently so I don't leave many splits" is really an advantage. If your thumb hole is loose add tape. I have to adjust my tape at least once a month sometimes every week. I know we have more temperature variation than you do but still.

[Perrin]

if your thumb hole is loose enough that you consisitently drop it you need a smaller thumb hole.... ussually easiest to handle with tape but if you are using more the 3-4 pieces you should consider having it drilled smaller(or using one of the other thumb aids like Magic Carpet)

[Mike White]

It's hard to "fix" when you've left it 11 times in 9485 shots (0.12%). So I need to take 833 shots in order to leave a 1-pin. And just making it ONCE more...I'd be up to 58%!!

Only other leave I've left exactly 11 times in 9485 shots??? The 6-9. I'm 72% on that one though.

What I REALLY need to fix is leaving the 1-2-8. Left that 132 times and am only 53% at picking it up. Thats a hard leave for a right hander. Lately I've been trying to throw a back-up ball at it with not much luck.

For a larger sample size, include all strike shots. And consider how many times you left the 1 pin, plus others if any as a miss.

Hitting the head pin on your first shot should require the same skill as picking up a lone 5 pin.

I don't keep my stats, but the % of time I miss the head pin, is just about 0%.

You need to achieve high accuracy before even considering increasing striking power.

Accuracy requires consistency.

Picking up the 1-2-8 is just a matter of hitting high on the head pin for a right hander.

But to do that, you need to move your feet a board or two right, then hit your mark again.

It's hard to be accurate if you don't put your feet in the same place (trouble with the dots), and don't hit your mark regularly.

A 1 board error at 15 feet, becomes a 4 board error at 60 feet.

Unless the guiding oil pattern reduces the error.

[Mike White]

if your thumb hole is loose enough that you consisitently drop it you need a smaller thumb hole.... ussually easiest to handle with tape but if you are using more the 3-4 pieces you should consider having it drilled smaller(or using one of the other thumb aids like Magic Carpet)

His thumb hole size isn't the problem.

His hand is on top of the ball during the back swing.

That requires him to support the weight of the ball mostly with his thumb, and a little with his fingers.

For most people that means bend your thumb, to get friction on both the back and front of the thumb hole.

He wanted his thumb hole tighter on his spare ball, so I drilled it just a bit smaller, and he couldn't get out of the ball until he had it opened up.

[Mike White]

Lion MAN,,,, are you SURE that's not your EKG, or EGG??? I showed it to a doctor I work out with, and he said, Dial 911, and ask for Bowling HELP, like NOW!

Thats the EKG of his team mates when they need Aslan to mark.

Aslan's brain is too busy micro-managing every little body movement to include heart rate.

Personally I think he practices wrong. And I've told him so.

It's hard to get everything working right when your trying to think about everything.

The key is to practice one thing, and concentrate on that one thing only.

You are trying to build muscle memory one piece at a time.

And don't care about the score.

Once you have muscle memory in that one piece, move on to something else.

Take a football team as an example, practice isn't just a game that doesn't count.

You practice one play over and over until you get it right, then move on.

In an actual game, when you need that play, it will be there.

[Mike White]

1 pin only 54%?? That should be fixed stat!!

That is like improving your ability to pick up the greek church.

Even if you made it 100%, how much would your average change considering how rare you leave it?

Now the % of leaving the head pin alone, or with others, is something he really needs to work on.

As he learns to pick it up, he's also learning to not leave it in the first place.

[Aslan]

His thumb hole size isn't the problem.

His hand is on top of the ball during the back swing.

That requires him to support the weight of the ball mostly with his thumb, and a little with his fingers.
Yes...similar to...

http://0.tqn.com/d/bowling/1/S/i/-/-/-/duke_pendulum.JPG

http://www.glacierlanes.com/pro-shop/backswng.gif

Nearly every high level bowler keeps their hand on top the ball during the backswing. I think what you're getting at is where the hand is at the release. I have a tendency to break my wrist backwards...which can cause you to drop the ball and lose any ability to get good revs. Some people stay under the ball, almost cradling it...like a thumbless bowler. The "correct" release is somewhere in between. But even YOU have your hand on top of the ball in the backswing...I have video of it.

You're more of a "cradler" in that your hand stays a little bit "under" the ball as you begin to release it. If you watch ZDawg's footage...also very much a "cradler"...and has a very short backswing. Looking at footage of Mudpuppy, Rob, and Iceman...more on top/side of the ball at the release point.


For most people that means bend your thumb, to get friction on both the back and front of the thumb hole.
Virtually everyone will tell you not to grip with your thumb. That it should be a snug thumbhole/suction that keeps the ball from falling off your hand.

[vdubtx]

It's hard to "fix"

No it's not hard to "fix". You shoot at and just to the right of that darn pin to start every single frame. It is like someone missing the 5 pin for a spare conversion. Some of my team mates on Thursdays miss it regularly.
:confused:

http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e381/Vdubtx/efvjz_zps95f549be.jpg (http://s43.photobucket.com/user/Vdubtx/media/efvjz_zps95f549be.jpg.html)

[J Anderson]

1 pin only 54%?? That should be fixed stat!!

The trouble with leaving the head pin is, that as Aslan said, to make it you just need to throw a strike shot. Well your first ball missed the pocket. How are you going to throw the ball with confidence when you've just missed (for whatever reason) the shot you have to make the spare?

[Mike White]

Yes...similar to...

http://0.tqn.com/d/bowling/1/S/i/-/-/-/duke_pendulum.JPG

http://www.glacierlanes.com/pro-shop/backswng.gif

Nearly every high level bowler keeps their hand on top the ball during the backswing. I think what you're getting at is where the hand is at the release. I have a tendency to break my wrist backwards...which can cause you to drop the ball and lose any ability to get good revs. Some people stay under the ball, almost cradling it...like a thumbless bowler. The "correct" release is somewhere in between. But even YOU have your hand on top of the ball in the backswing...I have video of it.

You're more of a "cradler" in that your hand stays a little bit "under" the ball as you begin to release it. If you watch ZDawg's footage...also very much a "cradler"...and has a very short backswing. Looking at footage of Mudpuppy, Rob, and Iceman...more on top/side of the ball at the release point.


Virtually everyone will tell you not to grip with your thumb. That it should be a snug thumbhole/suction that keeps the ball from falling off your hand.

Yeah you can pick one frame so it appears to prove your point, but if you showed the video, you would see during most of the arm swing, the center of the ball is closer to the shoulders than the fingers are.

When the center of the ball is further from the shoulder than the fingers, you are on top of the ball.

Picture the ball at the bottom of the swing. If your fingers are above the equator, you are on top of the ball.

If you maintain that position through the whole swing, it will look different at the top of the back swing.

As for tight thumb holes, maybe that is why so many people have problems getting their thumb out of the ball, and struggle to throw revs.

[Aslan]

Hitting the head pin on your first shot should require the same skill as picking up a lone 5 pin.

I don't keep my stats, but the % of time I miss the head pin, is just about 0%.

Uhhhhh....I don't want to argue semantics...but that "zero"....I mean, based on this classic bowling coverage from one of the greatest bowling tournaments in memory...well, yeah...I'm calculating about 36% of the time you miss the headpin??? :)

I'm not sayin....I'm just sayin.


http://youtu.be/KtN2oY-cqUc

[Aslan]

The trouble with leaving the head pin is, that as Aslan said, to make it you just need to throw a strike shot. Well your first ball missed the pocket. How are you going to throw the ball with confidence when you've just missed (for whatever reason) the shot you have to make the spare?

Exactly. If I LEFT a 1-pin...it's because I either missed my mark or my mark was wrong. So...since each shot is independent of the last...I likely will have a 50/50 shot of making an adjustment to correct for it. Probably better than 50%. If I missed my mark...I adjust and hit my mark. If the ball went way right...I know which way to move to have a better chance.

But arguing about the 1-pin is nuts because to leave JUST a 1-pin...is similar in difficulty to picking up a hard split. If we're talking 5-pin...yes, it's fairly easy to pick up. But if you leave one, you likely hit brooklyn. And if you throw that same shot...you'll miss the 5-pin. So it's not automatic. Nothing is automatic.

[Mike White]

Uhhhhh....I don't want to argue semantics...but that "zero"....I mean, based on this classic bowling coverage from one of the greatest bowling tournaments in memory...well, yeah...I'm calculating about 36% of the time you miss the headpin??? :)

I'm not sayin....I'm just sayin.


http://youtu.be/KtN2oY-cqUc

First off I don't trust your math, but I don't have time now to go back and confirm it.

Lets assume you reached 36% because I missed 12 times out of 33.


Over the course of about 500 games per season (league and practice) those 3 games would represent about 0.6% of my bowling.

So missing 36% on that one occasion, would have an effect on my overall % by about 0.2%.

I'll stick with my "just about 0%"

[MICHAEL]

Are these those tough lanes??? Wood??? Wow, watched the first 5 ten minutes, I think I could have beat all of you LEFT HANDED!!! Did it get better as the video progressed,,, LOL

Tell me it did, and that it was the wood lanes that you beat Mike on!!!

Looked like a nice place other then those huge distraction devises above the pins!! What a crazy place to have a 100 inch TV!!! Is bowling that
boring that a TV the size of a small car needs to be there????

I wonder, during leagues, do they have them ON!?

[Aslan]

Those were the wonderfully distracting lanes in Temecula. No, they are not wood. It's a smaller center that caters to birthday parties and teen non-sense. The billiards area is almost as big as the bowling area.

Yes…the bowling DID get better…especially for MWhite. As has been written in the stone tablets of destiny; Aslan DID WIN the 1st Annual Billy Hardwick Memorial Aslan vs. ZDawg Invitational and ZDawg finished a close 2nd with Mike coming in 3rd. But, Mike made a valiant charge at the end to put some pressure on us.

I unfortunately had to bowl my last round of the VBT there and it wasn't fun. The TVs and environment is mega distracting.

[Mike White]

Are these those tough lanes??? Wood??? Wow, watched the first 5 ten minutes, I think I could have beat all of you LEFT HANDED!!! Did it get better as the video progressed,,, LOL

Tell me it did, and that it was the wood lanes that you beat Mike on!!!

Looked like a nice place other then those huge distraction devises above the pins!! What a crazy place to have a 100 inch TV!!! Is bowling that
boring that a TV the size of a small car needs to be there????

I wonder, during leagues, do they have them ON!?

This was the polish wall condition. Zero ball reaction outside of 10, and if you got it in, it would hook brooklyn.

I "solved" the problem by moving way in, and tried to keep the ball left of 15 board.

If I left a spare shot on the right hand side, it was an adventure.

And yes, you might have done better left handed, because we don't know if the left side (outside) was anywhere near as bad as the right side was.

[Mike White]

Uhhhhh....I don't want to argue semantics...but that "zero"....I mean, based on this classic bowling coverage from one of the greatest bowling tournaments in memory...well, yeah...I'm calculating about 36% of the time you miss the headpin??? :)

I'm not sayin....I'm just sayin.


http://youtu.be/KtN2oY-cqUc

Ok I went back and counted, and guess what, your math sucks as bad as your bowling.

I threw 32 first ball shots, 5 of those didn't hit the head pin.

Of those 5 times I had a headpin to shoot at again, I missed it once.

That makes a total of 6 misses out of 37 tries for a total of 16% miss rate on that specific day.

I was asked to sub tonight. Under normal (easy) conditions, I missed the head pin a total of 0 times, shooting games of 223, 239, 237, for a series of 699.

[Mike White]

No it's not hard to "fix". You shoot at and just to the right of that darn pin to start every single frame. It is like someone missing the 5 pin for a spare conversion. Some of my team mates on Thursdays miss it regularly.
:confused:

http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e381/Vdubtx/efvjz_zps95f549be.jpg (http://s43.photobucket.com/user/Vdubtx/media/efvjz_zps95f549be.jpg.html)

He doesn't understand the words coming out of your keyboard.

[MICHAEL]

YOUR WAY TO HEAD!
Maybe a lobotomy, or partial Lobotomy
JUST MIGHT HELP!

Maybe before that try Electrical Shock!

YOU THINK WAY TO MUCH for the Size of
YOUR BRAIN!!

I hear tell that even while doing the basic thing below, he makes it more complicated then what it really is, always looking for a way to up his average deposit!! LOL
http://i369.photobucket.com/albums/oo139/CrpyLrkr/ThinkerToilet.jpg (http://media.photobucket.com/user/CrpyLrkr/media/ThinkerToilet.jpg.html)

[Aslan]

I don't keep my stats, but the % of time I miss the head pin, is just about 0%.



That makes a total of 6 misses out of 37 tries for a total of 16% miss rate on that specific day.


??

http://www.quickmeme.com/img/00/00c4f45d6951f5262d201bb5d3aaf7705e150e1d85c4411ffd a983564e270ab3.jpg

[Mike White]

??

http://www.quickmeme.com/img/00/00c4f45d6951f5262d201bb5d3aaf7705e150e1d85c4411ffd a983564e270ab3.jpg

Ok for the math illiterate Aslan, I showed how even your 36% guess only presented a overall increase in my % of 0.2%, since my activity on that day was less than half as bad as your guess, it would increase my miss % by about 0.1%

My comment said about 0%.

That is not the same thing as saying about 0.0%, or 0.00%.

Look up this thing called significant digits.

[Aslan]

Lemme try to shed some light on the statistical debate here. I needed to get to work where I had my cheat sheet so I could verify.

In the video I attached, MWhite:

1st Frame: Missed headpin on both shots. (0/2)
2nd frame: Hit headpin on shot 1. (1/3)
3rd frame: Missed headpin then hit it. (2/5)
4th frame: Missed headpin then hit it. (3/7)
5th frame: Hit headpin on first shot. (4/8)
6th frame: Hit headpin on first shot. (5/9)
7th frame: Hit headpin on first shot. (6/10)
8th frame: Hit headpin on first shot. (7/11)
9th frame: Missed headpin then hit it. (8/13)
10th frame: Hit headpin on first shot. (9/14)

9/14 = 64%
Which means, in 14 chances he missed the headpin 5 of 14 times = 37% (rounded down to 36%).

Now, MWhite contends that this is an unfair representation because:
1) It's only ONE game.
2) It's not on his usual house condition.

Now, to address point #2 first...he's saying he is at effectively 0% if you don't count sport patterns, tournaments, or the VBT...where he has to bowl outside his comfort zone or on tougher conditions.

As for point #1....I actually agree that this ONE game is not a fair look at his ability. BUT...lets say instead of 36%...we reduce that by 1/3 and say it's 10%. Thats still WELL above 0%. I personally conisder "essentially 0%" to be < 0.6%. Which means, in 1000 games (which I imagine is close)...thats 10,000 frames. In order to reach 0.6%, MWhite would have to throw 60 shots where he misses the headpin. In this ONE game...he threw 5. That leaves 55. That sounds like a LOT...but lets assume MWhite had a really bad game that day...and he actually NEVER misses 5 headpins in a game. Of matter of fact...lets say it's 1/5 of that number. Or better yet..1/10th.

That means, he'd miss 0.5 headpins per game for 999 games. Thats 499 headpins (rounded down). That would mean he missed 504 headpins in 10,000 frames = 504/10000 = 5%.

Even if we assume for the rest of the year...he only misses 2 headpins per SERIES (thats 2 headpins in 30 frames)...thats 66 + 5 = 71/10,000 = 0.71%


So what does all this non-gfit non-IceGod numery gooogily gook actually MEAN!?? NOTHING. It's just that even though....I think MWhite is a highly under-rated bowler....and I take credit for that misperception because much of it is the result of him losing to me at the 1ABHMAVZI and then getting humiliated on the Aslan vs. MWhite Wood Lane Challenge....from what I've seen...based on starting the year with 5 missed headpins in ONE game....and I don't care if he thinks those lanes were crazy or not...the liklihood and probability that he'd be at < 0.6% by the end of the season (and thus could legitimately claim "0%") is highly unlikely. Not impossible. And yes, I guess if you trim away all games on lanes outside your home center or on tournament conditions...then you could theortetically get to maybe 0.4-0.5%

...but since we're having this conversation as part of a larger criticism of MY game...and I've bowled in 20 different centers on 11 different lane conditions in 2 different states and 4 different local USBCs....I think we need a more honest comaprison than "Aslan misses headpins and I never, ever do*!"

* not including any shot not thrown at one center, on fresh oil, and excluding the nights where I disagreed that said oil pattern was applied to my liking...or on nights where I just had a sub-par performance or any type of soreness or anything like an allergy or a head cold or even a small amount of stress.

See...I didn't read the disclaimer. HAD I READ IT...okay...lets just say 0.2%...and thats close enough to zero. So I AGREE!

[Mike White]

Lemme try to shed some light on the statistical debate here. I needed to get to work where I had my cheat sheet so I could verify.

In the video I attached, MWhite:

1st Frame: Missed headpin on both shots. (0/2)
2nd frame: Hit headpin on shot 1. (1/3)
3rd frame: Missed headpin then hit it. (2/5)
4th frame: Missed headpin then hit it. (3/7)
5th frame: Hit headpin on first shot. (4/8)
6th frame: Hit headpin on first shot. (5/9)
7th frame: Hit headpin on first shot. (6/10)
8th frame: Hit headpin on first shot. (7/11)
9th frame: Missed headpin then hit it. (8/13)
10th frame: Hit headpin on first shot. (9/14)

9/14 = 64%
Which means, in 14 chances he missed the headpin 5 of 14 times = 37% (rounded down to 36%).



Here again, I have to question your observation skills.

In the 4th frame I left a 2-4-5-7-8.

That changes the counting to 9 out of 13, or 4 misses out of 13 tries






Now, MWhite contends that this is an unfair representation because:
1) It's only ONE game.
2) It's not on his usual house condition.

Now, to address point #2 first...he's saying he is at effectively 0% if you don't count sport patterns, tournaments, or the VBT...where he has to bowl outside his comfort zone or on tougher conditions.

As for point #1....I actually agree that this ONE game is not a fair look at his ability. BUT...lets say instead of 36%...we reduce that by 1/3 and say it's 10%. Thats still WELL above 0%. I personally conisder "essentially 0%" to be < 0.6%. Which means, in 1000 games (which I imagine is close)...thats 10,000 frames. In order to reach 0.6%, MWhite would have to throw 60 shots where he misses the headpin. In this ONE game...he threw 5. That leaves 55. That sounds like a LOT...but lets assume MWhite had a really bad game that day...and he actually NEVER misses 5 headpins in a game. Of matter of fact...lets say it's 1/5 of that number. Or better yet..1/10th.

That means, he'd miss 0.5 headpins per game for 999 games. Thats 499 headpins (rounded down). That would mean he missed 504 headpins in 10,000 frames = 504/10000 = 5%.

Even if we assume for the rest of the year...he only misses 2 headpins per SERIES (thats 2 headpins in 30 frames)...thats 66 + 5 = 71/10,000 = 0.71%



More bad math.

2 per series is 2/30 = 6.6% that would equate to 666 per 10000 frames


Essentially 0% means < 0.5%

Lets assume I can achieved 0.5% over the course of 1000 games, including the one game in question.

(4 + 46) / 10000 = 0.5%

In 999 games, I would be allowed 46 misses.

So excluding that one game, I would have to achieve a miss rate of about 0.46% to compensate for that one day in hell.

Even one miss per 20 games is probably higher than what I do.

You might have a hard time with that concept because of how much better it is than your percentages.

It's not that I'm better than most bowlers of similar average to myself, it just shows how much room for improvement you have.

[Aslan]

You might have a hard time with that concept because of how much better it is than your percentages.

It's not that I'm better than most bowlers of similar average to myself, it just shows how much room for improvement you have.

Well, yeah.

In that game you left it 4 of 14 times and I left it 6 of 15 times. ZDawg...well, I'm sure he doesn't want to remember it so we'll leave him out of it.

And I do tend to miss the headpin more than you for certain. I don't think you're at 0%...but Sunday morning I missed it 3x, 2x, 2x, and 1x (per game). Thursday league I missed it 4x, 1x, and 1x. So, on AVERAGE...twice per game. If I'm LUCKY...it's a 1-2. But most of the time I'm UNLUCKY and it's a 1-2-4, 1-2-8, 1-2-4-7, 1-3-6, 1-3-6-10, or the ever-wonderful 1-5-8-9. Hopefully my new change in how I figure out which ball to use (using a more aggressive ball to start) will keep me from hitting so light. But so far, the data actually has me missing more in the first game than subsequent games...so we'll see.

[Amyers]

Regardless of the rest of this nonsense. 2-4 misses per game is high but unless were talking about the cure for his missing the head pin what's the point. I don't track my stats the way you do Aslan but I'm pretty sure I miss one once a series maybe twice on a really bad night. I will track it the next time I bowl just to be sure it doesn't happen more often than I think but it takes a pretty bad shot for me to completely miss the headpin.

[Aslan]

Regardless of the rest of this nonsense. 2-4 misses per game is high but unless were talking about the cure for his missing the head pin what's the point. I don't track my stats the way you do Aslan but I'm pretty sure I miss one once a series maybe twice on a really bad night. I will track it the next time I bowl just to be sure it doesn't happen more often than I think but it takes a pretty bad shot for me to completely miss the headpin.

Oddly enough...I bet it happens more than you think (my point to MWhite). I rarely ever gutter on the first ball. But I used to...at least once per series back whn I was lofting the ball up the 4-7 boards. And it's certainly harder to miss the 1-2-3 entirely on a THS than it is on a sport pattern. But we've all thrown that one shot per night where it sticks or we drop it...and then you end up with a 3-5 count.

I think it happens a lot more to me than most bowlers because:

1) I'm more of an outside/in player. I don't split very often. I'd rather come in light and leave a 6-pin or something like that than go through the head and leave a 7-10 or greek church.

2) I also struggle with it more than others because I'm trying to develop a better fit with my bowling balls to avoid "grabbing" or "pinching" in the thumbhole. That causes the ball to sometimes fall off my hand before I'm ready...and unless it's really dry conditions...it likely won't make it all the way back to the pocket.

3) I am still adjusting a bit to a change from older wood lanes to new synthetic lanes. What used to come back despite a 3-7 board miss to the right...it don't come back anymore. Now I'm thankful if I can hit the head-pin when I miss by more than ONE board, but >2 and I'm dead in the water. Especially on sport patterns.

4) Like Mike said...I bowl more league games on sport patterns than I do on THS patterns. I practice 3-4 times as much on THS patterns. But still, about 33-47% of my bowling each week is on a sport pattern. And those are generally a 1-board miss situation. The recent PBA Dick Weber was a bit more forgiving...but the Shark and Scorpion were not.

5) Despite my post total (not yet God level dangit!)...and despite what Iceman claims...I've only been bowling for 15 months. A lot of these "wiesneheimers" like VDub and MWhite have 15, 20, 35 YEARS of experience on hitting the pocket. Even Amyers...a former competitive youth bowler. Even ZDawg might have more years than I do. It's odd that whenever I attempt to spread my wisdom (or lack there of), I'm usually reminded that I'm too new to the sport and therefore my opinion should be taken with a grain of salt...but when I miss 5 out of 11 1-pins (7 out of 12 now...I left one and picked it up in sport league Sunday morning), It's treated as though Norm Duke left and missed 3 single 5-pins in one game. Cut a guy some slack. I still have 10 years before I need to beat Chris Barnes in the 2025 USBC Senior Masters.

[Aslan]

2-4 misses per game is high .

Just for the sake of discussion...the misses the first game last Tuesday were:

1-2-4 in frame 1. 1-2 in frame 4. 1-2-3-4-5-7-9 in frame 7. And 1-2-3-4-5-7-8 in frame 8.

The first 2 I blame on not yet finding the line/ball I was comfortable with. My new "improved" (jury still out) way I decide what ball to use and line to play tends to take longer...and with only 15 minutes of practice and 5-man teams...every shot counts. If I mess up...I might still be trying things out when Game 1 starts...as was the case for Game 1 Tuesday.

The second 2 I just dropped the ball. I switched balls in the 5th frame to see if I should stick with the Rhythm or use the Encounter (A) and the Encounter's thumb-hole is a bit larger (despite about 8 pieces of tape) than the Ryhthm. So I had to do some tape work on that thumb-hole. The Rhythm thumb-hole is the only one that seems pretty good on a consistent basis in terms of fit. The Bullet Train has the "IT" system, but I need an insert that is another size smaller than the smallest one I bought. The other 3 balls have larger thumb holes and the Bill Hall tri-grip...which I "think" has my thumb pitched in a way that makes the ball more likely to fall off.

Once I get more confident and consistent with getting my thumb to come out clean...I can tighten up the thumb holes a bit. I'm reluctant to do it NOW because if I get them just right...and then pinch...it'll be carrying me over the foul line.

[Amyers]

Wasn't trying to come down hard on you just you should realize that number of missed head pins is way too high. As far as being light versus high in the pocket not for my self personally cause I don't have the ball speed some of these guys do but they seem to carry the high hits as well or even better than the light ones. I can't talk about sport patterns I intend to try one this summer but my only experience is bowling in practice on some the next day after a sports league this summer and I'm sure that's not really the same thing.

Fit is important and I think more so to those of us less experienced. I went to a demo day and tried to throw some shots with the generic stuff they had out and couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with it. Felt like an idiot then I watch one of my teammates who is a lefty (I'm a righty) and has much smaller finger than me pick up 7 pins with my ball with ease.

I'm not sure if my youth bowling days 20 years ago are a help or an impediment probably some of both. We both have been actively bowling this time around about the same length of time.

My main point is fix whatever is keeping you out of the pocket on a regular basis be it fit or not adjusting quickly enough I'll take the occasional split or light hit but a high percentage of your balls should be at least in the pocket weather light or high I would love to get to where all my shots are dead on in the pocket I'm not there yet but I am getting to where I'm adjusting where I am in the pocket now and not just getting there.

[Mike White]

Well, yeah.

In that game you left it 4 of 14 times and I left it 6 of 15 times. ZDawg...well, I'm sure he doesn't want to remember it so we'll leave him out of it.

And I do tend to miss the headpin more than you for certain. I don't think you're at 0%...but Sunday morning I missed it 3x, 2x, 2x, and 1x (per game). Thursday league I missed it 4x, 1x, and 1x. So, on AVERAGE...twice per game. If I'm LUCKY...it's a 1-2. But most of the time I'm UNLUCKY and it's a 1-2-4, 1-2-8, 1-2-4-7, 1-3-6, 1-3-6-10, or the ever-wonderful 1-5-8-9. Hopefully my new change in how I figure out which ball to use (using a more aggressive ball to start) will keep me from hitting so light. But so far, the data actually has me missing more in the first game than subsequent games...so we'll see.

Bringing ZDawg into it sheds light on how difficult the conditions were.

Unlike you (who throws the ball very straight), ZDawg and I hook the ball into the pocket assuming there will be ball reaction in the back ends.

Since his average is similar to yours, it's safe to assume he hits the headpin at least as often as you do while on conditions considered normal.

You missed 5 out of 13, 8 out of 15, and 2 out of 12,
I missed 4 out of 13, 3 out of 14, and 0 out of 11.
He missed 8 out of 16, 10 out of 16, and 5 out of 14.

I don't have a record of what happened on "bonus" shots in 10th frames, so I count those as neither misses nor attempts unless it's obvious from the score.

[Aslan]

poor ZDawg. Mike just outed him.

The good news is...we all seemed to figure things out by the third game.

I'm not sure if leaving the head pin is bad so long as you know WHY you left it. I see lots of beginning bowlers and the ball is spraying all over the place. You leave a LOT of 1-pins with that lack of strategy. But if you can look at your missed opportunities and realize WHY you missed...then at least it's a learning moment.

[zdawg]

Even ZDawg might have more years than I do.

Technically maybe, the first time I EVER bowled was probably in the early 80's but I was a little kid and it was duckpin bowling (which I think is only a regional thing and doesn't exist in most places outside of where I grew up). After that, I maybe went bowling 10-15 times total throughout grade school/highschool/college using house balls and just trying to throw the ball as hard as I could (like a lot of open bowlers). So, I consider the start of my bowling "career" the first night of league last Fall (2013) which was something like Sept 9th last year? So we have probably been bowling about the same amount of time.



poor ZDawg. Mike just outed him
But I have no problem admitting I bowled horribly that day despite my average being as low as it was at the time, I still bowled one of my worst series ever :o

That said we should really discuss another SoCal tournament, maybe early next year so I can try to redeem myself :D

[Mike White]

Technically maybe, the first time I EVER bowled was probably in the early 80's but I was a little kid and it was duckpin bowling (which I think is only a regional thing and doesn't exist in most places outside of where I grew up). After that, I maybe went bowling 10-15 times total throughout grade school/highschool/college using house balls and just trying to throw the ball as hard as I could (like a lot of open bowlers). So, I consider the start of my bowling "career" the first night of league last Fall (2013) which was something like Sept 9th last year? So we have probably been bowling about the same amount of time.


But I have no problem admitting I bowled horribly that day despite my average being as low as it was at the time, I still bowled one of my worst series ever :o

That said we should really discuss another SoCal tournament, maybe early next year so I can try to redeem myself :D

It was clear that Temecula was probably the first time you (ZDawg) encountered lanes that were oiled "inside out".

The left lane I managed to skid two shots through the back ends, and then have two shots hook left enough to both miss the head pin, and then chop the 1 off the 3.

That was conflicting information about the oil pattern.

Then I noticed the same thing on the right lane.

Too much oil to cover the 2-4-5-7-8, and too dry not to miss the 5 pin.

Aslan stayed with the "too much oil" part of the lane, since he's used to the ball skidding, and his handicap was based on him bowling on that type of situation.

I moved in to avoid as much of the puddle as possible.

Unfortunately for me, my handicap was based on conditions far more common than "inside out oil" so while I beat Aslan scratch, I couldn't overcome the handicap.

I also hadn't developed the competitive mindset where you try to win - win - win.

To me it was more of a recreational atmosphere since there wasn't any hard cash on the line.

If I had known his head was going to balloon thinking it was the most important event that ever had taken place, I would have brought a needle to pop that sucker.

[zdawg]

It was clear that Temecula was probably the first time you (ZDawg) encountered lanes that were oiled "inside out".

VERY true, I learned a lot that day as well as in my PBA experience league over the summer. My average in my THS league so far is already up 30 pins vs last season.



I moved in to avoid as much of the puddle as possible.

It wasn't until game 3 that I observed how far inside you were, and that I realized I should way in as well. I guess its no coincidence that I finally hit some strikes after making the adjustment.



To me it was more of a recreational atmosphere since there wasn't any hard cash on the line.

That it was, and for me it was a very good learning experience.

[Aslan]

That said we should really discuss another SoCal tournament, maybe early next year so I can try to redeem myself :D

Not sure when the Orange County BVL is yet (because their website is annoying and they wait till the last minute)...but tenatively...lets aim for either the last Saturday in Fenruary or the first Saturday in March for the "2nd Annual Billy Hardwick Memorial Aslan vs. ZDawg Southern California Invitational".


I also hadn't developed the competitive mindset where you try to win - win - win.

To me it was more of a recreational atmosphere since there wasn't any hard cash on the line.

If I had known his head was going to balloon thinking it was the most important event that ever had taken place, I would have brought a needle to pop that sucker.

Yeah. If you haven't developed a "win-win-win" mentality yet....at your advanced age...it's unlikely to develop. And if you need $$$ on the table to motivate you to perform...well, thats just sad. Your motivation SHOULD be...that if you lose...Iceman will spend the entire year reminding you that you lost to Aslan...AND you'll have to come up with more imaginary lane condition reasons why. It'll be exhausting!!


It wasn't until game 3 that I observed how far inside you were, and that I realized I should way in as well. I guess its no coincidence that I finally hit some strikes after making the adjustment.


That it was, and for me it was a very good learning experience.

Don't give him a big head. For ME...once I realized how horrible a bowler Mike is...my secret to success was to NOT watch him at all. Had I watched him...I'd have been tempted to throw more shots in the gutter than I did...so no thank you to that! :o

Lets wait till the OC BVL is announced so I can make sure I don't have a conflict. Then we can pick a weekend. I suggest Cal Oaks Bowl this time in Murrieta. Very close to Temecula Lanes without the complete "Tard"ness of those lanes. I can't bowl another tournament there with cartoon network on the big screens. Not to mention I want to limit Mike's excuses by at least ONE.

And I think once we decide on a date...maybe we make a flyer...and just pass it along to some people we bowl with who are at least sort of "cool"...and who knows...maybe we go from 3 people to 6 people this year!! Mike will probably bring that ringer dude that beat the crap out of me in the sport shot league...but since this is a HANDICAP tournament...the field should be level. And Mike, don't even TRY that, "Oh...my average is barely 190" c*ap!! We fell for that with the VBT and look what happened!! Mike has a 300-game, most improved average, highest scratch pin fall, and is still getting 1 pin of handicap per game! #sandbaggasaurus

[Mike White]

Yeah. If you haven't developed a "win-win-win" mentality yet....at your advanced age...it's unlikely to develop.

Oh I had it, but 20 years away from bowling tends to change things.



AND you'll have to come up with more imaginary lane condition reasons why.


Lets wait till the OC BVL is announced so I can make sure I don't have a conflict. Then we can pick a weekend. I suggest Cal Oaks Bowl this time in Murrieta. Very close to Temecula Lanes without the complete "Tard"ness of those lanes.

Interesting how YOU have to make sure YOU don't have a conflict.

Shouldn't that be so WE can make sure WE don't have a conflict.

Also, why are my complaints about Temecula "imaginary", yet for you it's "Tard"ness is real?



And Mike, don't even TRY that, "Oh...my average is barely 190" c*ap!! We fell for that with the VBT and look what happened!! Mike has a 300-game, most improved average, highest scratch pin fall, and is still getting 1 pin of handicap per game! #sandbaggasaurus

You developed the system that is providing me that 1 pin of handicap. Had you not "re-invented" the wheel, I wouldn't get any handicap.

As for the "barely 190", I didn't say what my average was when I signed up. The numbers you used came directly from Bowl.com.

Also, I included the following line when I signed up.

"I've dropped my equipment weight to 14 lbs in an attempt to avoid elbow damage. So I expect my average will climb well above 190's."


As for the handicap, you could change it to 90% of 200.

That way I'll get 0 pins. I'm pretty sure VDubTx would be fine with that change.

I wonder how long it would take you to realize that I would lose 1 pin and you would lose 18 pins.

[Aslan]

Interesting how YOU have to make sure YOU don't have a conflict.

Shouldn't that be so WE can make sure WE don't have a conflict.

Also, why are my complaints about Temecula "imaginary", yet for you it's "Tard"ness is real?

Yes...it's be so EVERYONE can decide if tehy have a conflict. And my issues with Temecula Lanes have nothing to do with some Phantom of the Opera "Reverse Block" oiling ghost. I don't like it because it's:

1) Uncommonly hot/humid in there.
2) It's small, not enough lanes.
3) It's friggin expensive.
4) The lanes are distracting with all those stupid projection screens.





You developed the system that is providing me that 1 pin of handicap. Had you not "re-invented" the wheel, I wouldn't get any handicap.
.

Dammit. Thats actually true. My quest to come up with the perfect handicap formula for a 6-month qualification round ended up giving you that darn pin. But, in my defense, I didn't realize EVERYONE would sandbag their averages. Of 17 participants, only ONE had a lower average after month 3 than their starting average.