Carrydown is not a factor in modern bowling!

[RobLV1]

Please read the latest article that I wrote for BTM where I give the empirical results of lane tapes which proves, once and for all, that CARRYDOWN IS NOT A FACTOR IN MODERN BOWLING!

[Aslan]

Please read the latest article that I wrote for BTM where I give the empirical results of lane tapes which proves, once and for all, that CARRYDOWN IS NOT A FACTOR IN MODERN BOWLING!

I WANT to read the article...but despite being a subscriber for a couple years in the past...I just can't justify spending another $35 on a bowling website when I don't seem to have the time to keep caught up with it. I chose to bite the bullet and invest in the annual XTraframe subscription...so I could watch the PBA50 and PWBA...and, like 2 years ago, I find myself WAAAY behind and trying to catch up. Last time I had the BTM subscription...I ended up 4-6 months behind trying to catch up on older articles.

And I just don't know how we can debate carrydown...when nearly every professional bowler says carrydown exists. I've heard about carrydown 3 times while watching the PBA50 and PWBA recently. Are the best bowlers in the World wrong? All of them??

And how do we get past the differences in league versus sport environment? On a sport shot...everyone is essentially throwing a resin sponge. I, logically, would agree that carrydown shouldn't be much of a factor. Even if everyone is throwing plastic spare balls at both corners...the "carrydown" would be minimal and pushed towards the corners. But when you change that environment to lesser experienced, house leagues...where as much as HALF the bowlers are throwing older resin, urethane, and plastic balls as strike balls...and that oil is being pushed up the center towards the headpin (as well as everywhere else because these bowlers miss often)?? I can't see the logic.

I dunno. Maybe I'll bite the bullet and get the BTM subscription once the PBA50 and PWBA seasons are over. But something like "carrydown"...it's kinda like "hitting up on the ball" or using 16lb equipment...even IF you're right....it's going to take a LOT of time and effort to really change the minds of the USBC and highest level bowlers. And without doing that, you run the risk of being a Slowinski "Drop Your Shoulder" type of "conspiracy theorist". You, like Slowinski, MAY be right...but there has to be buy-in. Have you considered approaching the USBC and having them look into the carrydown issue? They have the equipment and facilities...maybe after looking at your data they'd consider looking into it?

[bowl1820]

And I just don't know how we can debate carrydown...when nearly every professional bowler says carrydown exists. I've heard about carrydown 3 times while watching the PBA50 and PWBA recently. Are the best bowlers in the World wrong? All of them?

The question is not whether carrydown exists or not, IT DOES! To prove it all anyone has to do is walk down to the end of the lanes after a league and look you'll see it.

The question is whether or not there's enough carrydown present to influence ball motion. That's the debate.

One thing that causes problems in the debate though is, there has not been much empirical evidence gathered on the subject and what there is available has come from limited test samples and/or anecdotal evidence.

[Aslan]

After reading the article...I guess I can definitely see the data and agree with Rob's conclusions (regarding the 2ml and 3ml oil situation).

Granted...again...it's a very "tricky" data set given the data is after X games of league play at a center in Vegas. What was the % of bowlers throwing plastic or urethane as their strike ball? If that % is 0%-6%...makes sense. But is THAT league a fair representation of standard house leagues? Or, is that a fair representation of YOUR league? That's an open question. I've never bowled league in Vegas...but I have bowled in Vegas and watched league play...and I can tell you that the league make-up and centers there are AMAZINGLY different. I'd actually love to see an article where a Vegas league bowler goes to other areas of the country...like the "sweeps leagues" states like California and the bowling purist Midwest areas of St. Louis/Chicago/Detroit and the rural areas of flyover country...the South, the metro areas around New York/Philly/Boston. As someone who has bowled in multiple areas of the country...it is NOT the same environment.

Vegas centers are very well maintained. I know some Vegas league bowlers will disagree and issue their complaints about one center or another...but those centers are mostly in casinos that make millions of dollars a day. They can afford to put in new equipment, buy new machinery, etc...at the drop of the hat. They oil at LEAST once a day...usually multiple times a day. They put down much, much more oil to protect their lanes (from the hundreds of thousands of customers that come through their doors for leagues, sweeps, and open bowling). And from what I've seen of the league bowlers...you see mostly informed bowlers, that see bowling tournaments on a routine basis, host the USBC at least once every few years, with newer equipment. The "fun leagues"...not as prevalent.

But...while there are some "particulars" that I think need further addressing...lemme try to advance the conversation using the data given in the article and it's premise. I guess the biggest question I have is, "How do we use this revelation to change how we play the lanes?" I'll use myself as the example for the sake of simplicity. In the next post is a "hypothetical example" that is typical of the moves I might make on league night (and WHY). Perhaps you can answer a few questions...specifically;

1) When I make a hypothetical move/decision that you think is "wrong" or based on the wrong thought process, tell me what you'd suggest I (or whomever) should do differently.

2) If I make a move/decision that is "wrong"...or based on an incorrect decision (carrydown for example)...and it strikes....what could be the reason(s) for that result?

The whole concept...I find very curious. Because...well...first; hypothetical example for analysis:

[bowl1820]

After reading the article...I guess I can definitely see the data and agree with Rob's conclusions (regarding the 2ml and 3ml oil situation).

It's not 2 or 3 ml's, it's "units" of oil. There's a big difference, there are like about 60 Units in 1ml.


But is THAT league a fair representation of standard house leagues? Or, is that a fair representation of YOUR league? That's an open question.

Thus why Slowinski and Rob put a caveat in their respective articles.

Such as Joe's "Unless you come to a bowling center after hours of open play or a birthday party" or Rob's "Back ends that are cleaned insufficiently to begin with due to lane maintenance issues, back ends that are single-stripped instead of double-stripped, and other such anomalies that cause the back ends to not be as clean as they perhaps could be are different issues entirely and are not considered within the scope of this article."

Those "anomalies" right there describe more houses in this country, than ones that double strip backends and don't have hours of open play or a birthday parties.

[Aslan]

Assumptions:
Standard 4-person League. Three-Game format. One player absent from opposing team.

Arsenal (w/surface details):
Radical Reax Pearl (Surface = 4000 Abralon matte)
Ebonite Innovate (Surface = 2000 Abralon, Storm Step 2 compound, Resin polish)
Hammer Scandal Pearl (Surface = 500 Sia Air, Storm Step 1 compound, Resin polish)
Track 300A (Surface = 4000 Abralon, Storm Step 3 compound, Resin polish)

Warm-Up:
Take 2 shots on each lane. Line seems appropriate...3 strikes, one miss right that left a 10-pin.

Starting Line: Laydown (foul line) = 15. Target (arrows) = 11. Breakpoint (far tracers) = 8-10.

Game 1:
9 /, 7 2, 9 /. Started out with Reax Pearl, hitting target but missing right. Assumed carrydown or my line was off. Moved 1:2 (eyes:feet) RIGHT on each lane.
X, X, X, X, X, 8 /, 7 / 7. Pulled shot in 9th frame. Missed right in 10th frame both times.

Game 2:
6 /. Made good shot, but left a 2-4-5-8 bucket. Assumed line was breaking down. Decided to ball DOWN to Innovate. Moved 1:2 RIGHT*.
Laydown = 13. Target = 10. Breakpoint = 8-10.
* Normally I don't move right, but the switch from Crown Factory compound to Storm Step 2 has caused Innovate to go significantly longer than previous surface.
9 /. Left a 4-pin. Moved LEFT 1:1.
Laydown = 14. Target = 11. Breakpoint = 9-11.
8 1, 6 /, X, X, 5 3, X. Last two frames went through the nose. Moved 1:2 LEFT on both lanes.
Laydown = 13. Target = 12. Breakpoint = 9-11.
X, 6 /. Left 2-4-5-8 bucket on fill ball in 10th frame on good shot. Assume CARRYDOWN. Ball UP to Scandal Pearl. Stay on present line.

Game 3:
X, X, 6 2, X, 7 /, 9 -, X, 8 /, X, X 7 -. Non-strikes were bad shots; one miss right (6 2) and 3 pulled shots. The only pocket non-strike was the 9 - which was a 7-pin.

I tried to use a random data set from actual league play where I averaged "about" my present average and used all three of the usual balls I would progress through.

One of the biggest "QUESTIONS" I have about the theory of "no carrydown"...is that I have had a great deal of success balling UP to the Scandal Pearl in the 3rd game. IF there is no carrydown...balling UP, and staying in the same place...should be devastating or at the least require me to make some significant moves left. Yet, that's usually not the case. Of matter of fact, recent successes aside, the balling DOWN to the Innovate has been the least successful step in the process...WHICH...if the non-carrydown theory is correct...SHOULD be the most successful step....because the lanes ARE drying out...and the less aggressive option is going to be a success.

After reading the article (well-written by the way), there's really no way staying in the same place and balling UP should ever work. Correct?

[Aslan]

It's not 2 or 3 ml's, it's "units" of oil. There's a big difference, there are like about 60 Units in 1ml.
Yeah...I wasn't sure what a "unit of oil" was..."mL was a guess. A "wrong" guess by a factor of '60' it appears!

No wonder lane oil is so expensive. It probably lasts longer than toothpaste and shampoo and shaving cream combined.


Those "anomalies" right there describe more houses in this country, than ones that double strip backends and don't have hours of open play or a birthday parties.
I don't usually consider Bowl1820 "funny"....but that made me laugh. :D

I actually watched a center recently and the oil machine went down to about where the tracers are, stopped, and came back. Then, next lane. I hope there wasn't carrydown...cuz if there was...the center must be relying on evaporation to get rid of it.

[foreverincamo]

I'm not going to read thru all the posts like I normally do. Im just reacting to the title. Yes, there is carrydown, especially if bowlers are using urethane. Yes, it can make short patterns ( like the PBA Wolf ) play much longer after a while. And something I found out from the head mechanic at my summer league.: reactive resin balls can run over the carried-down oil while in high rev mode and turn the oil into small patches of a very tacky glue-like substance that not only is hard to clean up, but can make your shot turn left if you run it over.

[RobLV1]

I'm not going to read thru all the posts like I normally do. Im just reacting to the title. Yes, there is carrydown, especially if bowlers are using urethane. Yes, it can make short patterns ( like the PBA Wolf ) play much longer after a while. And something I found out from the head mechanic at my summer league.: reactive resin balls can run over the carried-down oil while in high rev mode and turn the oil into small patches of a very tacky glue-like substance that not only is hard to clean up, but can make your shot turn left if you run it over.

There are really two separate issues here:

1. No-one is disputing that you can see streaks and blotches of oil past the pattern. They are there, but they do not affect the reaction of reactive resin balls because they are just too low in volume. Centuries ago people came to the conclusion that the sun revolved around the earth based on what they saw each day: the sun appeared in the east and disappeared in the west. Then along came Gallileo who proved that, in fact, the earth revolves around the sun. The powers that be, the Catholic Church, did not like that because it did not fit in with their long-held beliefs. They threw him in jail, and for as long as they could, they kept their beliefs based on the misleading daily evidence.

2. The reason that short patterns seem to play longer after a while is that most bowlers can't bring themselves to play far enough to the right on the fresh oil: it's simply too scary. So, once the oil starts drying up, the balls start to burn up and lose energy, seeming to go straighter. Since most players cannot move left on a short pattern, the only thing left for them to do is to move right into the scary no-man's land where they should have been playing in the first place.

[Amyers]

It's not 2 or 3 ml's, it's "units" of oil. There's a big difference, there are like about 60 Units in 1ml.



Thus why Slowinski and Rob put a caveat in their respective articles.

Such as Joe's "Unless you come to a bowling center after hours of open play or a birthday party" or Rob's "Back ends that are cleaned insufficiently to begin with due to lane maintenance issues, back ends that are single-stripped instead of double-stripped, and other such anomalies that cause the back ends to not be as clean as they perhaps could be are different issues entirely and are not considered within the scope of this article."

Those "anomalies" right there describe more houses in this country, than ones that double strip backends and don't have hours of open play or a birthday parties.

I spend way to much time in bowling alleys so I'm usually there when the lanes are oiled. In one house I bowled at the lane machine went all the way to the end and then they brought a lane mop out and cleaned the backend again one of the higher scoring houses I've bowled in. Usually I see some mixture of the machine not go to the backend at all or only once and no moping. I have seen the machine run twice on the backends but it's rare anywhere I bowl.

[RobLV1]

Thank you Bowl1820 for pointing this out. When I first submitted my article to BTM, I went round and round with the Editor. This ended up being the point of divergence in our personal views which is why the "disclaimer" was added. The fact that bowling centers rarely do a decent job in cleaning the back ends sufficiently is a whole other topic from that of balls carrying oil down the lane off of a fresh pattern.

[Amyers]

Warm-Up:
Take 2 shots on each lane. Line seems appropriate...3 strikes, one miss right that left a 10-pin.

Ok your about the same age as me maybe in a little better shape 3-5 balls does not have me throwing at my full speed and rev rate maybe for you it does.



Starting Line: Laydown (foul line) = 15. Target (arrows) = 11. Breakpoint (far tracers) = 8-10.

Game 1:
9 /, 7 2, 9 /. Started out with Reax Pearl, hitting target but missing right. Assumed carrydown or my line was off. Moved 1:2 (eyes:feet) RIGHT on each lane.
X, X, X, X, X, 8 /, 7 / 7. Pulled shot in 9th frame. Missed right in 10th frame both times.

First off even if you believe in carry down it can't be that quick, odds are good your speed increased as you continued to warm up. Second if your moving right make 1-1 moves not 1-2. Also if you moved 1-2 and your break point is 6.5-8.5 it's not still 8-10.



Game 2:
6 /. Made good shot, but left a 2-4-5-8 bucket. Assumed line was breaking down. Decided to ball DOWN to Innovate. Moved 1:2 RIGHT*.
Laydown = 13. Target = 10. Breakpoint = 8-10.

Ok now assuming you may no other moves you balled down and moved another 1.5 boards at the break point right which would have moved your break point to 5-7 at this point



9 /. Left a 4-pin. Moved LEFT 1:1.

Moves left should be at a 2-1 ratio to keep the break point constant. break point is now 6-8



Laydown = 14. Target = 11. Breakpoint = 9-11.
8 1, 6 /, X, X, 5 3, X. Last two frames went through the nose. Moved 1:2 LEFT on both lanes.

Ok so a typical move here break point would still be 6-8



Laydown = 13. Target = 12. Breakpoint = 9-11.
X, 6 /. Left 2-4-5-8 bucket on fill ball in 10th frame on good shot. Assume CARRYDOWN. Ball UP to Scandal Pearl. Stay on present line.

Game 3:
X, X, 6 2, X, 7 /, 9 -, X, 8 /, X, X 7 -. Non-strikes were bad shots; one miss right (6 2) and 3 pulled shots. The only pocket non-strike was the 9 - which was a 7-pin.

I tried to use a random data set from actual league play where I averaged "about" my present average and used all three of the usual balls I would progress through.

One of the biggest "QUESTIONS" I have about the theory of "no carrydown"...is that I have had a great deal of success balling UP to the Scandal Pearl in the 3rd game. IF there is no carrydown...balling UP, and staying in the same place...should be devastating or at the least require me to make some significant moves left. Yet, that's usually not the case. Of matter of fact, recent successes aside, the balling DOWN to the Innovate has been the least successful step in the process...WHICH...if the non-carrydown theory is correct...SHOULD be the most successful step....because the lanes ARE drying out...and the less aggressive option is going to be a success.

After reading the article (well-written by the way), there's really no way staying in the same place and balling UP should ever work. Correct?

Well your walking differently to the line after your moves or you really have no clue where the ball is at the tracers as I've show here your break point would be nowhere near where you say it is if you made the adjustments your claiming to have made considering a consistent walk. Best guess here on an average night as you think your adjusting what your actually doing is making your line tighter to the point that instead of throwing the ball right and allowing it to hook back to the pocket you reach a tipping point where your actually throwing the ball left into the higher concentrations of oil. You think the ball is burning up but as you ball down to your weaker ball it gets worse and worse first the carry goes then you start missing the pocket and call it carry down so you switch to a stronger ball and miracle it starts to react because it can get a bite into the heavier oil your throwing it into.

I'm not sure where you came up with making the unusual adjustments from. 1-1 right is which moves your break point 1 board right is standard. 2-1 left to keep the same break point is the typical move left. if the break point is working you don't change it you simply move 2-1 left during the night. With the adjustments you described you basically had the ball all over the lane at 40 feet down before even allowing for miss room.

[bowl1820]

I spend way to much time in bowling alleys so I'm usually there when the lanes are oiled. In one house I bowled at the lane machine went all the way to the end and then they brought a lane mop out and cleaned the backend again one of the higher scoring houses I've bowled in. Usually I see some mixture of the machine not go to the backend at all or only once and no moping. I have seen the machine run twice on the backends but it's rare anywhere I bowl.

Here a few times we were having a lot of out of range calls, because of pins sliding on the deck which was do to carrydown.

So they had to pretreat the pindecks before the lane machine made it's pass spraying it with something like maybe one of the deck sprays or just a straight cleaner IDK which.

Given if there's enough oil on the deck for pins to slide, (I don't remember how the lanes played those times) but imagine how much oil there must have been past the end of the pattern.

Reading Kegels info in their FAQ's they talk about how to reduce carrydown if players ball reaction is weak after a game and a half.

"Question: Ball reaction is weak after a game and a half. How do I reduce my carry down?

Answer: Typically the applied oil distance forward is too far creating too much conditioner towards the end of the oil pattern. Reduce the applied distance of conditioner and add to the reverse to prevent the loss of durability."

That right there would seem to imply that enough oil can get carried down to affect ball motion (Given how the pattern was set up).

Just to note I'm not saying Coach Slowinski or Rob are wrong, I myself think today depletion is more of a concern than carrydown is.

But I won't dismiss someones else's concerns about the possibility of them having carrydown out of hand either (I'm not saying Rob or Joe do either), Because I'm not bowling where they are and seeing what they see.


Something to think about:

According to what Joe wrote about oil depletion and ball reaction, he said " oil depletion is the culprit for ball motion change. As oil is depleted, more friction is encountered. This additional friction causes the ball to hook earlier. In other words, the core stands up sooner. This reduces the axis rotation sooner, weakening the back end reaction."

Okay if a balls reaction has been weakened by depletion by the time it reaches the backend, could the carrydown small as it is have a further affect on the balls motion?

While a ball working at a more optimum level might not be affected by only a few units of oil, one working a lower level might be affected.


The main thing I believe is bowlers have to really watch their ball motion and learn tell the difference between if it's depletion or actual carrydown. It's hard, they look very similar I can't say I'm good at it.

[RobLV1]

It's virtually impossible to see the difference between carry down and burn without changing balls (ball up for carry down, ball down for burn). Being that even the most stubborn holdouts to the idea that carry down is not an issue will agree that MOST of the time what we see is oil depletion rather than carry down, why is it so tough to look at the situation logically: if it's usually oil depletion, then why not adjust for it first and be successful MOST of the time rather than SOME of the time?

[Aslan]

Ok your about the same age as me maybe in a little better shape 3-5 balls does not have me throwing at my full speed and rev rate maybe for you it does.
Seven players...5-15 minutes of practice taking turns...there is only so much warm-up time available. Sometimes I get lucky and there is 15 minutes and I'm one of only 2 bowlers warming up...but there are also nights I get there late...trying to get my shoes on...get my equipment ready...and I don't even get a warm-up...especially when subbing...where you get asked to sub after the team realizes 1-2 players aren't showing up.

Realize...I'm not saying you're wrong...but bowling advice, in order to be useful, has to be applicable to what a bowler is going to see on league night. IDEALLY...we could talk about all kinds of things related to practice, balls, conditions...but if you show up on league night with 2 balls, get 2 practice shots on each lane, and are bowling on lanes that get the backends cleaned twice a month...whats the point? It's "correct" advice...but non-applicable to 92% of bowlers.


First off even if you believe in carry down it can't be that quick, odds are good your speed increased as you continued to warm up.
I've had a PBA pro tell me different. The way I look at it is, if you believe "depletion" (burn) can occur during warm-up (which I think RobM said was possible in his article)...then carrydown probably can as well.


Second, if you're moving right, make 1-1 moves not 1-2. Also if you moved 1-2 and your break point is 6.5-8.5 it's not still 8-10.
If I was at a breakpoint of 9...and I move 1:2 right...now I'm at a breakpoint of 8, but with a slightly tighter line. No?


Ok now assuming you made no other moves you balled down and moved another 1.5 boards at the break point right which would have moved your break point to 5-7 at this point
Again, another 1:2 right now moves the breakpoint target to 7...and further straightens out the line. And that move was ONLY to account for the surface issues on the Innovate which is a ball that has been going much longer...not as smooth a transition from the Reax Pearl at 4000.


Moves left should be at a 2-1 ratio to keep the break point constant. break point is now 6-8
A 4-pin, 4-9, or 9-pin is ALWAYS a 1:1 left. Again, PBA pro-confirmed.

The breakpoint would now move back to 8...same straighter line.


Ok so a typical move here break point would still be 6-8
Now, with the 1:2 left...the breakpoint is back to 9...adding a little more angle back into the shot.



Best guess here on an average night as you think your adjusting what your actually doing is making your line tighter to the point that instead of throwing the ball right and allowing it to hook back to the pocket you reach a tipping point where your actually throwing the ball left into the higher concentrations of oil.
In that example...not possible. There is no such thing as "higher concentrations of oil" anywhere I've bowled except Vegas. And in Vegas...I still was hooking into the pocket...just more of an "up and in" shot between 1st and 2nd arrows...versus between 2nd and 3rd arrows. The ONLY time I've ever had to throw left (direction) at the pocket (versus hooking) is if we're talking about carrydown from open/cosmic/ glow bowling where the lanes just have essentially oil smeared all the way down the lane through the backends...not something I've encountered in league play.


I'm not sure where you came up with making the unusual adjustments from. 1-1 right is which moves your break point 1 board right is standard. 2-1 left to keep the same break point is the typical move left. if the break point is working you don't change it you simply move 2-1 left during the night. With the adjustments you described you basically had the ball all over the lane at 40 feet down before even allowing for miss room.
I've seen and heard of ALL kinds of moves right and left. Like I said, the moves and adjustments I tend to make are based on two factors:
1) The adjustments I was taught by Missy Parkin. She actually has an adjustment spreadsheet/worksheet that gives you lateral moves based on certain leaves. It's GREATLY helped in my adjustments. Before being taught about the adjustments I SHOULD make...I was all over the place trying to adjust.

2) I sometimes make small moves...half board boves....1:1s right...vertical targeting chagnes...little things to help depending on well the ball is hitting the pocket...even I'm technically striking. These aren't moves that have been "taught"...these are moves that I'm trying to perfect and are based on actual experience and stuff I've read. Suzie Minshew's article in BTM actually introduced me to the concept of vertical targeting changes.

[RobLV1]

Please read my last post. Even if carry down is a factor, which I firmly believe it is not, then it is so rarely a factor that it is better off ignored anyway. I hope you watched the PBA Match Play Championships that concluded yesterday to see just how fast a line dries up: two shots and move in!

[imagonman]

Rob M. do you have a link that we can use to read the entire article you posted @ BTM or do we need a subscription to read it? Thanks as always for your well thought out articles and website.

[Aslan]

It's virtually impossible to see the difference between carry down and burn without changing balls (ball up for carry down, ball down for burn).
This is probably the toughest thing to grasp concerning bowling.

A miss left is either a pulled shot or the line is drying up and your ball is hooking too early...or maybe you got a little more hand in the ball.

BUT...a miss right could be:
1) Depletion
2) Carrydown
3) Your angle is too extreme
4) You didn't get enough hand in the ball.
5) Your speed was slightly high.

And like Rob says...it is VERY difficult to tell...even for advanced bowlers...which of those is the culprit.


Being that even the most stubborn holdouts to the idea that carry down is not an issue will agree that MOST of the time what we see is oil depletion rather than carry down, why is it so tough to look at the situation logically: if it's usually oil depletion, then why not adjust for it first and be successful MOST of the time rather than SOME of the time?
For me personally...it's a bit different scenario due to my arsenal and how I play the lanes...but one problem I run into when I start to move in...trying to stay in the oil and away from the depletion...is my angle gets to severe. 1:1, 1:2, 2:3 moves...pretty soon I'm trying to play a line that I just can't play.

OR...I try to ball down...I keep missing right...I ball down again...keep missing right...pretty soon I'm midway through the night before I realize, "Oh, it wasn't depletion...my line was off or it was carrydown, etc..." Remember, on league night, you're playing on two lanes...so it takes two frames sometimes just to figure something out and then another 2 frames to see if that change worked. One miss and guess at how to fix it costs you 4 frames...almost half a game! :eek:

[bowl1820]

This is probably the toughest thing to grasp concerning bowling.

You might want to read Coach J. Merrill's reply to my thread "Carrydown or Depletion? What to look for" on bowlingchat.

It's a very thorough and easy to understand reply on the subject.

http://forum.bowlingchat.net/viewtopic.php?p=101836#p101836

[RobLV1]

Rob M. do you have a link that we can use to read the entire article you posted @ BTM or do we need a subscription to read it? Thanks as always for your well thought out articles and website.

You'll need to get a subscription, but the last time I looked, it is only $37 a year! IMHO, that's a very small price to pay to get access to more valuable information about bowling that's available anywhere else.

[RobLV1]

Aslan: Your ability to overthink things boggles the mind! If you throw a shot and still can't tell if you threw it too hard or missed it at the bottom, then what's the difference if it's carry down or burn? You always seem to have an excuse as to why things don't apply to you because of your arsenal, your release, or the color of your hair! The bottom line is that you hit the nail on the head when you said you find yourself playing a line that is too uncomfortable for you, and the only cure for that is to practice it until it is comfortable. Of course, as long as you insist on evaluating your practice sessions by your score, you can't do this. Let the score go and work on expanding your comfort zone. Once you do that, I don't think it will really make any difference to you whether you are missing because of carry down or oil depletion. Rant over!

[Amyers]

Seven players...5-15 minutes of practice taking turns...there is only so much warm-up time available. Sometimes I get lucky and there is 15 minutes and I'm one of only 2 bowlers warming up...but there are also nights I get there late...trying to get my shoes on...get my equipment ready...and I don't even get a warm-up...especially when subbing...where you get asked to sub after the team realizes 1-2 players aren't showing up.

Realize...I'm not saying you're wrong...but bowling advice, in order to be useful, has to be applicable to what a bowler is going to see on league night. IDEALLY...we could talk about all kinds of things related to practice, balls, conditions...but if you show up on league night with 2 balls, get 2 practice shots on each lane, and are bowling on lanes that get the backends cleaned twice a month...whats the point? It's "correct" advice...but non-applicable to 92% of bowlers.

I'll give you that in subbing this maybe outside of your control but I still bowl a lot of my leagues that are 5 man teams and they are higher end leagues so everyone is taking practice shots and still get 3 shots in on each lane in 10 minutes. Some of it maybe outside of your control but you have to ask did I arrive early get my drinks have my shoes on and ball on the rack basically everything I need completed before practice starts? My main point really wasn't that you weren't trying to warm up just that may have been the reason for the need to make the initial move. Mines the opposite I find I need to move further in quickly if I don't get warmed up good as I tend to be getting around the ball better on ball 8 than I was on ball 4


If I was at a breakpoint of 9...and I move 1:2 right...now I'm at a breakpoint of 8, but with a slightly tighter line. No?

Lines don't magically tighten without moving the break point moving your feet 1 board without changing your target is a 1/2 board adjustment down the lane. Yes the line is tighter but it's tighter by moving the break point right in this instance by an additional 1/2 board thus 8.5. A 2 boards with the feet and 1 with the eyes move right would move your break point by 1.5 boards to the right.


Again, another 1:2 right now moves the breakpoint target to 7...and further straightens out the line. And that move was ONLY to account for the surface issues on the Innovate which is a ball that has been going much longer...not as smooth a transition from the Reax Pearl at 4000.

You are correct this break point is now at 7 but you started out with a pretty flat line to begin with even on your initial line there is no real movement to the right of the ball it's a pretty straight line down the lane you've now moved your eyes 2 boards right and your feet 4 boards right this becomes important read on.


In that example...not possible. There is no such thing as "higher concentrations of oil" anywhere I've bowled except Vegas. And in Vegas...I still was hooking into the pocket...just more of an "up and in" shot between 1st and 2nd arrows...versus between 2nd and 3rd arrows. The ONLY time I've ever had to throw left (direction) at the pocket (versus hooking) is if we're talking about carrydown from open/cosmic/ glow bowling where the lanes just have essentially oil smeared all the way down the lane through the backends...not something I've encountered in league play.

Now this is where your not thinking about the actual setup of the lanes and the effect of your movements. Lets start with your shot shape I think we can agree your starting position is pretty flat your line is straight down the lane or close to it. Now you move 4 boards right with your feet an 2 with your eyes what happens to the shape of your shot? it's not constant it changes and it goes from straight to inverted. Now lets imagine the shape of the oil pattern most THS patterns are Christmas tree shaped so the farther left your ball is and the earlier it gets to that point the longer the oil pattern plays so now we are longer in the oil. On most THS patterns the farther left the ball is the heavier the oil pattern is in number of units so now if your ball is traveling right to left down the lane the ball is actually traversing more oil in length and volume.

Add on to this simple human nature if any part of our ball hits close to anywhere near our target (especially 40 ft down the lane where we can't see as well) we tend to think we hit our target forgetting the fact that the ball is 1.5 boards wide. If you are truly at 7 there is a gap between the ball and the marker down the lane. I think I've already established by your moves the ball should be farther right than at the break point than what it is and a ball that should be at 7 your thinking should be at 9 and then human nature is kicking in by looking at the ball my guess on those shots you think carry down the middle of the ball is probably at 10 or even 11 but your mind shows the edge of the ball at 9 so you think it's ok. Take a ball like your Innovate a weaker ball with a lot of polish now traveling through longer and higher volume oil that your trying to help get to the pocket because you don't have full confidence in and it misses right at the pins and your like whoa carry down. You change to the Scandal Pearl a ball you do have confidence in one it handles the oil better even if it is in that higher/longer area and since you believe in it the natural tendency is to be a little more free with the swing and miracle carry down solved.


I've seen and heard of ALL kinds of moves right and left. Like I said, the moves and adjustments I tend to make are based on two factors:
1) The adjustments I was taught by Missy Parkin. She actually has an adjustment spreadsheet/worksheet that gives you lateral moves based on certain leaves. It's GREATLY helped in my adjustments. Before being taught about the adjustments I SHOULD make...I was all over the place trying to adjust.

2) I sometimes make small moves...half board boves....1:1s right...vertical targeting chagnes...little things to help depending on well the ball is hitting the pocket...even I'm technically striking. These aren't moves that have been "taught"...these are moves that I'm trying to perfect and are based on actual experience and stuff I've read. Suzie Minshew's article in BTM actually introduced me to the concept of vertical targeting changes.

Well I read the article by Suzie a while back but I can't remember enough about it to debate it but in simple THS bowling I think you might be better served by simplifying. Move right for hook move left to keep your line. Moves right 1:1 to move the break point right once you've found the hook on the lane move 2-1 left keeping the simple breakpoint where the hook is. DO this at least until it doesn't work if you know a break point of 9 works why do you want to test out 10 or 8 virgin territory? If that doesn't work then try your more unusual moves. It'll keep you from starting with a line that straight and ending up with one that is traveling left across the lane. You'll have less washouts, better carry, and low and behold carry down will disappear.

[Aslan]

You might want to read Coach J. Merrill's reply to my thread "Carrydown or Depletion? What to look for" on bowlingchat.

It's a very thorough and easy to understand reply on the subject.
It's essentially what Rob was proposing. To tell the difference, you have to make a ball change and see what happens...which, like I was pointing out, means you need two shots to see the problem and another two shots with the new ball to figure out if it's carrydown or depletion. If you're wrong...the good news is you probably will know what to do with the remainder of the 6 frames...although, that's also true if you're right I suppose.


Aslan: Your ability to overthink things boggles the mind! If you throw a shot and still can't tell if you threw it too hard or missed it at the bottom, then what's the difference if it's carry down or burn?
I'm sorry bowling great! I didn't realize you've reached Iceman status and never throw a bad shot...or even a shot that wasn't absolutely perfect. Must be nice!


Of course, as long as you insist on evaluating your practice sessions by your score, you can't do this.
You must miss the parts of my practice evaluation where I look at the entire effort as an almost complete failure if I miss even one single-pin. I keep track of scores because ignoring them doesn't add value. I also play low-ball where the goal is to score as low as possible. I also used to take lessons twice a month and couldn't tell you what any of the scores were.

I'm pretty comfortable about the work I put into my game versus just about anyone on this site...even you. Ironically, it's only you and Ice that are critical of my efforts. You want me to practice a line that I'll rarely ever need to use on a THS...Ice wants me to stop practicing and start using placebo supplements and channeling aliens. I'm starting to wonder who's more correct. I'm still leaning "you"; however...because having an additional line to play in my toolbox is probably beneficial at some point.

I 'kid' Rob...but Rob is incorrect in his criticism of my game. I DO try very hard. I DO try different approaches and lines. I DO take his advice and data seriously. But the bottom line is:
1) I ball "UP" due to what I perceive as "carrydown"...and it works. Rob tells me there is no such thing and even if there is to ignore it. I'm SEEING one thing...I'm HEARING numerous professionals talk about carrydown...yet Rob gets irritated if I respond to the carrydown discussion in any other way than, "Yes sir. I'll change my line immediately!"
2) I've moved inside...a LOT...buying into the idea of depletion. I'm NOT the typical frustrating bowler that targets 2nd arrow come Hell or high water. I'm listening...I'm learning...I'm trying. But thus far...it's been unsuccessful. Maybe I'm moving too quickly. Maybe my moves need to be altered so not to end up with too extreme an angle. But I take a LOT of criticism for a guy that IS trying AND listening.


Mines the opposite I find I need to move further in quickly if I don't get warmed up good as I tend to be getting around the ball better on ball 8 than I was on ball 4
I tend to throw "hot" early on...so the more practice I can get in...not only does it help get me balanced...but it allows me to tire out a bit and get my speed down from the 17.9mph to the 15.9mph range...which gives my ball a chance to actually "move" a bit.


Add on to this simple human nature if any part of our ball hits close to anywhere near our target (especially 40 ft down the lane where we can't see as well) we tend to think we hit our target forgetting the fact that the ball is 1.5 boards wide...and a ball that should be at 7 your thinking should be at 9 and then human nature is kicking in by looking at the ball my guess on those shots you think carry down the middle of the ball is probably at 10 or even 11 but your mind shows the edge of the ball at 9 so you think it's ok. Take a ball like your Innovate a weaker ball with a lot of polish now traveling through longer and higher volume oil that your trying to help get to the pocket because you don't have full confidence in and it misses right at the pins and your like whoa carry down. You change to the Scandal Pearl a ball you do have confidence in one it handles the oil better even if it is in that higher/longer area and since you believe in it the natural tendency is to be a little more free with the swing and miracle carry down solved.
At the end of the day...if you diagram the shots in my example...the laydown was between 11-15...the target at the arrows was between 9-11...and the breakpoint was between 7-9.

Like you said...that, for the sake of the example, was assuming that the ball was actually hitting that breakpoint...precisely. Like you touched on...if I could hit a 2-board target at 40ft on every single shot...I'd probably be averaging well over 195 at this point. But, if you diagram the lines on a printout of a lane, to scale...you'll see that this is a rather small "lane" that all 3 balls are being thrown in. The laydown varies by 4 boards and the target/breakpoint by 2 boards. All the moves I noted...which seem like a lot of moving around...only net a 4-board area at the foul line and a 2-board change downlane.

That's just how I've had the most success playing a THS. Find a line that works well for your speed/arsenal/rev rate...have a ball that you can ball down to when there is some "depletion"...then have a ball you can ball up to when/if there is carrydown. With MY game...if I find myself on league night laying the ball down left of center...targeting deeper than 3rd arrow...trying to get my pearls/polished balls to bounce off 12...it's usually a sign that I'm having a BAD night.

Rob is probably right...there's definitely value in developing that inside line...and it'll certainly be necessary as I try to climb the ladder and bowl in more and more competitive environments. But, my game just isn't there yet. I've tried it...absolutely. And it's failed miserably. I recall a Saturday night colored tournament where I was well inside of where I normally played...and it was so miserable that a former PBA regional player sort of asked me if he could give me some advice and told me the line I was playing was crazy extreme and I needed to straighten out my line and move right.

[RobLV1]

Once again, Aslan, you misconstrue! I've said it to you, and I've said it publicly, but I'll say it again: I AM A TERRIBLE BOWLER! That has nothing to do with my ability to coach as I have coached several players on the PBA50 Tour as well as the Regional Tours. When I tell you that you should be able to tell when your speed is off or you miss the shot at the bottom, it's because I know how much you bowl and how seriously you take it, and I compare your reactions to others who I have coached, not myself. Unfortunately, you want everything to be something that can be analyzed and a list made. You really need to stop being oblivious to how bowling FEELS, even though it is not something that can be calculated.

[Aslan]

You really need to stop being oblivious to how bowling FEELS, even though it is not something that can be calculated.

I'm getting better at it. I'm now starting to "feel" when I'm getting more hand in the shot...which was something I used to be unable to really "feel"...I used to have to just "assume" based on the result.