Aslan's Scores (of the non-lady kind)

[Amyers]

@Amyers:
The problem with the critique of the scientific-based arsenal selection by saying there are too many variables and you'd need to get it to "just one variable" is practically speaking impossible. So, then what do we do? Bowling is an aggravating sport because when you try to seek a "right answer", nearly every bowler looks at your effort and says, "fooey! You just need to (insert something from their 30 years of bowling background)."

So, concerning this dilemma...how does one put together a 3-ball, 4-ball, or 5-ball arsenal of varying ball manufacturers, various time periods of manufacture (technology), assymetry, varying RGs and differentials, varying coverstock materials, and various surfaces?? Here's where that ole timer bowler pops his head in and says, "Fooey!! I always throw a dark colored ball on Thursdays....and a red ball on Saturdays...and I only throw AMF equipment."

No, the science is NOT perfect. Yes, true scientific analysis would require isolating one variable at a time. But, thats PRACTICALLY SPEAKING...impossible. THEORETICALLY...possible. But, lets say I wanted to analyze ONLY differential of these three balls. I'd have to ask Storm and EBI to change the cores in their 4-year old, retired balls...AND they'd have to all agree to use a common cover....identical surfaceing....and the resin formulations would need to be identical. Given Ebonite never returned my call when I tried to get assistance with a roller bag that broke within 2-3 weeks of purchase...and I have yet to hear back from Brunswick concerning their part in the Motiv scandal and/or comments on the matter...I doubt Rotogrip, Radical, and Ebonite would jump at the opportunity to spend thousands of dollars to help me nail down subtle differences in differentials.

Your exactly right the odds of ever only having one variable are about zero unless you go buy a crate of the same ball. Which is why it's necessary to take your time and understand the actual differences between the balls. Where I took issue with your post was you referred to the surface being a constant but they weren't not even close the cores you called the same just because the Rg. was similar but one of them isn't even asymmetrical more/less the fact that they have different levels a asymmetry. You listed the covers as the same but obviously all three covers were from different manufacturers with different intents of their use.

I don't have an issue with generalities If you have three balls with similar Rg. (=-.1) and differential similar that are all intended to be heavy oil balls and similar surfaces that's comparable. You've got three completely different balls with different intents in their design that just happen to have a similar Rg. At least from what I got from your earlier posts was you were expecting to be able to derive something (not sure what) from how these balls played because their were so many similarities where they didn't really exists. At best you've got an orange, a grapefruit, and a pear I guess they are all fruit but that and the fact that they all have a peel is the end of the similarities. The plus side is I think this honestly a better arsenal than you've had in the past. I'm not sure you've ever had an arsenal with an obvious ball that you should start with on medium conditions and an obvious ball to play longer with as they break down and then something that should be milder but still long like you've got now.

[Aslan]

Your exactly right the odds of ever only having one variable are about zero unless you go buy a crate of the same ball. Which is why it's necessary to take your time and understand the actual differences between the balls. Where I took issue with your post was you referred to the surface being a constant but they weren't not even close the cores you called the same just because the Rg. was similar but one of them isn't even asymmetrical more/less the fact that they have different levels a asymmetry. You listed the covers as the same but obviously all three covers were from different manufacturers with different intents of their use.

I don't have an issue with generalities If you have three balls with similar Rg. (=-.1) and differential similar that are all intended to be heavy oil balls and similar surfaces that's comparable. You've got three completely different balls with different intents in their design that just happen to have a similar Rg. At least from what I got from your earlier posts was you were expecting to be able to derive something (not sure what) from how these balls played because their were so many similarities where they didn't really exists. At best you've got an orange, a grapefruit, and a pear I guess they are all fruit but that and the fact that they all have a peel is the end of the similarities. The plus side is I think this honestly a better arsenal than you've had in the past. I'm not sure you've ever had an arsenal with an obvious ball that you should start with on medium conditions and an obvious ball to play longer with as they break down and then something that should be milder but still long like you've got now.

Amyers...God love ya...you're like listening to the politics on the news....lots of criticisms...short on solutions. Even if...even IF...my analysis of bowling ball design and differences between balls is at best 10% accurate/informative/correct....it's still 10% better than just about anything else anyone else has done. Granted....thats because pretty much NOBODY does it. There are piles and piles (much like poo in many ways) of analysis of this ball or that ball or this other ball. But rarely do we see 3rd party analysis. And 3rd party analysis is essential given the ball manufacturers have shown a perpensity to at MOST flat out commit fraud (Motiv)...or in the LEAST...pretty much blow smoke up the *** of the bowling community trying to convince them that this next new ball is soooooooooooooo technologically superior to their release from 6 months ago....that you should spend $220 + $55 drilling so you can finally get that 800 series. All lies....all sales nonsense...with manipulated videos...no actual fact-based explanation why ball A is better than ball B.

So...enter a few video folks that claim to be more impartial than the bowling ball companies (not a high bar by any means)...enter things like PerfectScale that most bowlers are trained to dismiss as nonsense....and a few other online publications that at have at least tried to address arsenal construction or what the nitty gritty spec numbers mean. But too few and too far between...and none of them actually solve any problems. PerfectScale seems to be fairly accurate in overall hook measurement. Unfortunately, it is rather useless at actually putting together an arsenal, at least partially because it doesn't adequately tell the story of ball motion. As Bowl1820's (or VDub's...I forget) signature says...it's not how much the ball hooks so much as when. PerfectScale doesn't really even address sooner versus later...and thats a key concept in arsenal construction (I think). Rob had an interesting article on the use of RGs to assemble an arsenal. It was a very informative article and he may be right...RG may in fact be the best method (if you have to settle on just one).

I want to come up with a way to use multiple bowling ball variables to come up with a system that identifies which balls would be best suited for:

- 1st out of the bag, heavier conditions
- 2nd out of the bag, go-to ball on a typical THS
- 3rd ball out of the bag, good for practice and drier conditions, ball down option for ball #2 when lanes transition

You are absolutely right Amyers....THAT is not a very easy thing to create...which is probably in part why nobody has ever done it. But if you are creating an arsenal...especially the newer bowlers...and are not loyal to one brand or are bowling on a budget...something like that could be very valuable and helpful. It can't be perfect...too many variables...and at the end of the day skill and your physical game trump ball specs any day of the week. But...just because it's imperfect...doesn't make it rediculous any more than is any method any current bowler uses for arsenal selection...most of which can be summed up in, "I bought this one....then that one...and then this other one. I use this one on Thursdays, that one on Fridays...and this one every once in awhile."

[Aslan]

Tuesday Night League: Fairly new synthetics, low-moderate oil THS

575 Series: 202 (clean)-165-208 (clean)

Still using the Encounters; I pick up my new arsenal tomorrow afternoon. I used the less aggressively drilled/OOB polished version the whole night as the balls both seemed to lose a lot of energy going down the lane.

Game 1 was mostly solid spare shooting...which is ironic given I'm using my strike ball as my spare ball presently.

Game 2 the spare shooting was just too much...only struck twice...opened twice (both on mistakes made trying to use the strike ball as my spare ball).

Game 3 I struck 6 times, but only managed to double once.

PinPal Stats:
First Ball Average: 8.82 pins
Strikes: 36% (2 doubles, and 8 singles)
Spares: 85% picked up

Single Pin spares: 80% (8/10)
Most common single-pin leave: 10-pin (5x).
Also left a single 6-pin (2x), 7-pin (2x), and a 2-pin.

Multiple Pin spares: 90% (9/10)
Most common multi-pin leaves: 1-2-8 and 4-7 (2x each)

Splits: 100% (1/1)

Average over 3 games: 191.67.
Average had I picked up 100% of single pin spare leaves: 195.67.

First week subbing as 6th man on my old Tuesday team. Helped them take 3 out of 4 despite our anchor being out (that was who I was subbing for). The Encounters did an adequate job as fill-ins while I await Arsenal #3 to get drilled.

ONE MORE CLEAN GAME...and I'll have 100 in my career!!

[manke]

Aslan how can you develope a first second third out of your bag when the conditions are always changing. You bowl against different people that use different lines every week. Don't forget that each set of lanes are different too. So a person should never be i have to use this ball first this one second.

[Amyers]

Amyers...God love ya...you're like listening to the politics on the news....lots of criticisms...short on solutions. Even if...even IF...my analysis of bowling ball design and differences between balls is at best 10% accurate/informative/correct....it's still 10% better than just about anything else anyone else has done. Granted....thats because pretty much NOBODY does it. There are piles and piles (much like poo in many ways) of analysis of this ball or that ball or this other ball. But rarely do we see 3rd party analysis. And 3rd party analysis is essential given the ball manufacturers have shown a perpensity to at MOST flat out commit fraud (Motiv)...or in the LEAST...pretty much blow smoke up the *** of the bowling community trying to convince them that this next new ball is soooooooooooooo technologically superior to their release from 6 months ago....that you should spend $220 + $55 drilling so you can finally get that 800 series. All lies....all sales nonsense...with manipulated videos...no actual fact-based explanation why ball A is better than ball B.

So...enter a few video folks that claim to be more impartial than the bowling ball companies (not a high bar by any means)...enter things like PerfectScale that most bowlers are trained to dismiss as nonsense....and a few other online publications that at have at least tried to address arsenal construction or what the nitty gritty spec numbers mean. But too few and too far between...and none of them actually solve any problems. PerfectScale seems to be fairly accurate in overall hook measurement. Unfortunately, it is rather useless at actually putting together an arsenal, at least partially because it doesn't adequately tell the story of ball motion. As Bowl1820's (or VDub's...I forget) signature says...it's not how much the ball hooks so much as when. PerfectScale doesn't really even address sooner versus later...and thats a key concept in arsenal construction (I think). Rob had an interesting article on the use of RGs to assemble an arsenal. It was a very informative article and he may be right...RG may in fact be the best method (if you have to settle on just one).

I want to come up with a way to use multiple bowling ball variables to come up with a system that identifies which balls would be best suited for:

- 1st out of the bag, heavier conditions
- 2nd out of the bag, go-to ball on a typical THS
- 3rd ball out of the bag, good for practice and drier conditions, ball down option for ball #2 when lanes transition

You are absolutely right Amyers....THAT is not a very easy thing to create...which is probably in part why nobody has ever done it. But if you are creating an arsenal...especially the newer bowlers...and are not loyal to one brand or are bowling on a budget...something like that could be very valuable and helpful. It can't be perfect...too many variables...and at the end of the day skill and your physical game trump ball specs any day of the week. But...just because it's imperfect...doesn't make it rediculous any more than is any method any current bowler uses for arsenal selection...most of which can be summed up in, "I bought this one....then that one...and then this other one. I use this one on Thursdays, that one on Fridays...and this one every once in awhile."

I think we actually agree on this lol. My original point has been that this is a better arsenal than you think anyways. So if I'm right you win not a bad proposition.

Arsenal building is tough especially to the average mid level bowler that pays as much attention to his beer and the girl in the skirt 2 lanes over as he does to how peoples balls react to the lanes. It's also part of the reason why I've switched to using mostly one manufacturer of balls. It's hard enough to make knowledgeable choices between 20 balls versus 100 and I can at least find manufacturer data to help me decide between balls in the current lineup.

First thing you have to figure out is what you need. Where in the lineup is this ball going to fit. There are so many variables between peoples styles and the lanes they bowl on to make a sure fire system that fits everyone extremely difficult but for myself here's what I look at in order of importance.
1. Surface (do I want a ball to go longer or start earlier, handle more oil or less) with my low speed anything under 3k is going to be early roll out only buy it if I'm looking for a sport shot ball.
2. RG (mostly the same as one and they work in tandem) If I'm buying mid Rg. equipment it needs less surface for my style. I avoid low Rg. equipment it most instances if I do it has to be polished.
3. Cover strength/ Manufacturers intent. I've learned with my style I generally don't need heavy oil balls especially on a THS and tend more towards mid line to lower line equipment.
4. Differential/Asymmetry/Insert Gimmick of the week here. Differential at my level I can't see a big effect on other than most of the very low differential balls I've owned haven't carried well for me (could just be bad luck but have had three of them and all of them have been that way) Asymmetry does matter but most highly asymmetrical balls tent to fit in categories that don't fit my game the few I've tried have been ok. Gimmicks I honestly don't care and refuse to buy balls because of gimmicks I really don't believe carbon fiber makes a better core or the lack of filler in the new Quantum's make them significantly better these are just the two being shoved down are throats at the moment.

My belief is if you pay attention to all three of the above and watch how they interact together you can build at least a fair lineup. The biggest trick is to make sure that your looking at all three and not become fixated on anyone portion to the exclusion of the others. Ignoring any of the three will result in mistakes.

[Aslan]

I think we actually agree on this lol.

True

It's also part of the reason why I've switched to using mostly one manufacturer of balls. It's hard enough to make knowledgeable choices between 20 balls versus 100 and I can at least find manufacturer data to help me decide between balls in the current lineup.

The downside to that, is your options are now limited. Not only in terms of what may or may not work for you...but now you're at the mercy of that brand's pricing.

...you have to figure out is what you need.
1. Surface (do I want a ball to go longer or start earlier, handle more oil or less) with my low speed anything under 3k is going to be early roll out only buy it if I'm looking for a sport shot ball.

I can't say surface is completely useless...and I have it as a variable in my system...but I struggle with using surface for arsenal selection as surface can be easily manipulated. It's like buying a car based on how good the floor mats look. What's the point? For $75 you can get whichever floor mats you want. Buying a ball because it's a 2000 abralon finish makes no sense...because it can be changed to a 500 abralon surface for $15.

2. RG (mostly the same as one and they work in tandem) If I'm buying mid Rg. equipment it needs less surface for my style. I avoid low Rg. equipment it most instances if I do it has to be polished.
3. Cover strength/ Manufacturers intent. I've learned with my style I generally don't need heavy oil balls especially on a THS and tend more towards mid line to lower line equipment.

Agreed. It's rediculous to see people buying Hyper Cells and Locks and Nirvannas...when they're playing on a low oil volume, thin, THS pattern...which most everyone plays on. Sure, if you go to Vegas a lot and/or bowl tournaments...especially USBC or PBA...then absolutely you need an expanded arsenal with stronger equipment. But I've thrown 11 different balls over the past 3 years...and only one of them (900Global Bullet Train) was what I'd consider a "strong" ball. And if I put together a Top 10 List for my bowling balls...The Bullet Train would slide in at #8.

Now, I throw differently than you so I like a ball with a lower RG...and I let the pearl cover/polished cover provide the length. I've had very, very little success with the opposite strategy of surfacing the POO out of the ball to try to make a higher RG ball turn earlier.

4. ...Asymmetry...

I've had most success with symmetric cores...but, in fairness, I think assymetric cores amplify release issues. So, if you're "still learning"...I don't think anyone should buy an assymetric core ball. Like you've (and others) said...once the ball is drilled...it becomes assymetric....I'm just saying the more assymetric that ball is...the less room you have for error regarding your release.

I recently moved the Columbia300 Encounter from last place in my Top 10 to 9th place...simply because I unretired the two Encounters recently (waiting for my arsenal to get drilled up and to get used to throwing man weight again)...and I threw them much better than I did in 2014. I would hope so!! With all the time and money I've spent trying to improve...it'd be a bummer to still average in the low 160s with those balls.

Older Brunswick synthetics: low-moderate oil

Got my new arsenal about 45 minutes before the league started bowling...figured I'd sub and start to get a feel for the new arsenal...

516 Series: 215-151-150

Game 1 I was doing very well throwing the Reax Pearl. I wasn't sure if it'd be too much ball for a narrow THS...but with 2:1 move inside my normal starting point and it worked great. But these lanes are older and transition quickly...and in the 10th frame the ball hit weak, left a 10-pin, and I missed it to screw up my bid for clean game #100.

Game 2 I balled down to the Ebonite Innovate. Couldn't figure out the left lane...struck 3 times on the right lane...was all over the place on the left lane. I left a 1-2-10 washout then a single 2-pin...made a 2:1 move right...went through the nose and left a 4-6-10 split. Made a 2:1 move back to the left...and left a 2-8. Moved back 2:1 right and left a 4-pin in the 10th (and missed it). #*^%! Took me that entire game to find a line that would work on that stupid left lane.

Struck in the first frame after finally figuring out where the line was on that lane...but then I left a 2-10 split on the right lane followed by a 5-pin...figured the lanes were telling me that it's time to go with something that goes a bit longer. Besides, it gave me a chance to FINALLY throw the Defiant Edge...which I've had in the closet of destiny for like 3 years. But, it took me 5 frames, mainly due to a couple horrible shots, to finally get lined up...but too little too late.

PinPal Stats:
First Ball Average: 8.77 pins
Strikes: 35% (1 4-bagger, 1 double, and 5 singles)
Spares: 55% picked up

Single Pin spares: 70% (7/10)
Most common single-pin leave: 4-pin (5x).
Also left a single 10-pin (2x), 2-pin, 5-pin, and 7-pin.

Multiple Pin spares: 40% (4/10)
Most common multi-pin leaves: 2-8 (2x)

Splits: 0% (0/3)

Average over 3 games: 172.00.
Average had I picked up 100% of single pin spare leaves: 183.33.

Embarrassing showing and inexcusable as a sub. Entering with a 192 average doesn't help...but I can't be too hard on myself given it was the first time I threw those balls.

[Aslan]

Aslan how can you develope a first second third out of your bag when the conditions are always changing. You bowl against different people that use different lines every week. Don't forget that each set of lanes are different too. So a person should never be i have to use this ball first this one second.

There's two lines of thinking on this:

1) Use a "benchmark ball".
2) Use a progression.

Even with choice #1, you need a progression to determine which ball is the "benchmark ball" (it should be the middle of the progression).

To go to the lanes and simply lick your finger, put it in the air, and say, "yup...today it's gonna be the Storm Reign of Fire" isn't a repeatable system. Yes, if you bowl the same center every single week...like myself, you will likely find that you don't need to start with "Ball #1" each night...because you know ball #1 is generally going to be too strong. You may start with ball #2.

The more practice time you have, the better educated decision you can make. But when you have 10 minutes of practice and 4-5 bowlers on each lane...you'll have to be almost perfect on your shots (no warm up misses) and already lined up in order to realistically try out more than one ball...or maybe three balls total. There's just no time to use visual observation to pick the best ball out of a 4-6 ball arsenal. You have to have some type of knowledge of the conditions and some idea how your arsenal is constructed.

It also depends on how you view an arsenal. Some view an arsenal as just a random collection of balls...and the more they have...the more options they have. That's great if you get a 1-2 hour warm-up practice session like the PBA folks. But you have 10 minutes. It's true that the more balls you own...the higher the liklihood you'll use one that performs well...but it's still a small percentage chance given that you realistically are only bringing 1-12 balls (out of 80 current models and thousands of retired balls).

So, using a progression allows you to go from the ball that hooks the soonest to the ball that hooks the latest. As the lanes transition, you ball down to the next ball in the progression. If you've bowled at that house a lot...you have an advantage...because you not only have a good idea about the line...but probably know what ball to start with. But if you don't have a "progression"...how do you know what ball to pick next? Most bowlers just grab one that they like, or that is newer, or any number of 'wrong' reasons to switch and select a different ball. And without a progression, you rely on a mix of luck and 'gut feeling' to make that choice. I believe that with a proper progression...you can eliminate much of the guesswork out of ball change choices. You'll require less practice time to figure out which ball to start with/use. And as the lanes transition...you will still have options. What I mean by the last sentence...is you don't want to be throwing a Storm Ride and having it lose energy and hit weak....then switch to a Brunswick Nirvanna. If the Ride is hitting weak and losing energy...there's a 0.0001% chance the Nirvanna will make it down the lane without losing energy.

However, even with a progression...it's still very difficult to tell the difference between not being perfectly lined up, having a variation in your release, or having a ball lose energy and hit weak. So, it's not 'perfect'...and you'll likely need a pro of some kind to assist. Your pro shop operator also is essential because they need to know that progression in order to ensure they drill the balls in a way that fits them into those slots. My two strongest balls are drilled pin up to give them a counter-balance their strong specs....and make sure they don't roll out or lose energy too soon. The weaker ball is drilled pin down, to make sure it'll still make a strong move to the pocket despite it's weaker specs.

Lets say your arsenal is:

Storm Mix, Storm Lock, Storm Tropical Breeze. You could set up this progression one of two ways:

#1 Lock, #2 Tropical Breeze, #3 Mix

or

#1 Tropical Breeze (drilled/surfaced to hook sooner), #2 Mix, #3 Lock (maybe drilled to hook a bit later)

No matter which option you choose...the bottom line is...if you start with the Mix...and the lanes transition...and your only other two ball options are stronger...you are essentially screwed. If the Mix is going through the nose...so will the Tropical Breeze. If the lanes are too dry for the Mix...they'll be far too dry for the Lock. Thats all there is to a progression...it just keeps you from starting with something that gives you no options come game #3. It's quite frustrating watching a fellow bowler leaving 10-pin after 10-pin because his ball is losing energy and hitting weak...so they switch from a Hyper Cell Skid to a sanded hyper cell. I've made that mistake. I argue with Amyers all the time about the dangers of messing with surface. If the Skid was burning up and it's polished and designed to go long and snap...why in the World would you switch to a sanded version of that ball designed to hook sooner? It's not the line thats the problem...it's the transition.

And (I'll use the anti-Norm Duke spare shooting arguement), Pros use progressions. Almost every single pro has their arsenal lined up in a way that they know if they start with Ball X...when the lanes transition, they switch to Ball Y....then Ball Z. If they start with Ball Y, they will switch to Ball Z, then ?... The ball manufacturers even MAKE THE BALLS in 3-ball progressions (solid, hybrid, pearl). They take the same cores and wrap them in different covers to provide you with an instant progression (should you buy all 3-4 of their "line").

[Amyers]

True


The downside to that, is your options are now limited. Not only in terms of what may or may not work for you...but now you're at the mercy of that brand's pricing.

There is some truth to that and if I really thought I needed something they didn't make I would still look outside of those lines but most of the manufacturers have multiple lines under roof (DV8, Radical, Brunswick for example) if I can't find something that fits the bill it must be a pretty specific slot. Pricing to me seems pretty stable across the different companies and I really don't sweat an extra $20 on something I'm going to use for a year or so.

I can't say surface is completely useless...and I have it as a variable in my system...but I struggle with using surface for arsenal selection as surface can be easily manipulated. It's like buying a car based on how good the floor mats look. What's the point? For $75 you can get whichever floor mats you want. Buying a ball because it's a 2000 abralon finish makes no sense...because it can be changed to a 500 abralon surface for $15

I really don't look at it this way when I'm looking at surface I'm not trying to change the overall characteristics of the ball. If I need that I'm usually going to just pick out a different ball myself most of the time. I don't really get too hyped up on a particular ball So I try to pick things that will fit generally what I'm looking for but if that ball comes with 2k on it I'll change it to 3k in a heart beat if that's what it needs but I generally don't purchase high end pearls with a high rg and sand them to try and make it different. I have polished high end sanded balls for people that wanted that ball in a pearl with good results.

Now, I throw differently than you so I like a ball with a lower RG...and I let the pearl cover/polished cover provide the length. I've had very, very little success with the opposite strategy of surfacing the POO out of the ball to try to make a higher RG ball turn earlier

Very true me and you have very different styles and ways of attacking the lanes I think if we blended our strengths we would be a heck of a bowler

I've had most success with symmetric cores...but, in fairness, I think assymetric cores amplify release issues. So, if you're "still learning"...I don't think anyone should buy an assymetric core ball. Like you've (and others) said...once the ball is drilled...it becomes assymetric....I'm just saying the more assymetric that ball is...the less room you have for error regarding your release

I don't know if I agree with this or not and I haven't thrown enough asymmetric equipment to judge it well not because I'm afraid of it just that they tend to be more aggressive and I rarely need that. My one foray with that has been the Storm Virtual Gravity Pearl I've thrown multiple 250+ games with it but finding the right condition for it's hard for me It requires a firm dry spot to hook off of but enough oil that I can control it which is rare to find.

[Amyers]

There's two lines of thinking on this:

(it should be the middle of the progression).

It really doesn't have to be the middle ball benchmark is simply the ball you can read the lanes with best

To go to the lanes and simply lick your finger, put it in the air, and say, "yup...today it's gonna be the Storm Reign of Fire" isn't a repeatable system. Yes, if you bowl the same center every single week...

Correct sticking your finger in the air isn't repeatable but neither is I started with ball 2 last week so I'll start with ball 2 tonight. Different lanes in the same house play differently and if your centers are anything like mine the lane machines don't always put the pattern down extactly the same from week to week. You face different competition each week also which effects your progression you can't simply say it's time to change so I'm going to ball 3 every night. Some nights it maybe ball up to 1 and move inside the next night you need to go to three.

The more practice time you have, the better educated decision you can make. There's just no time to use visual observation to pick the best ball out of a 4-6 ball arsenal. You have to have some type of knowledge of the conditions and some idea how your arsenal is constructed.

Exactly most nights you can't throw every ball you have in 10 minutes especially if your like me and the first 2 balls are just to make sure the body still works. I may take 5 balls with me but I don't really have to throw any of the other 4 if I can get 2-3 shots with my benchmark. I usually start with my Mastermind also my strongest ball but not because of that I know exactly how that ball works and where to move with each of my balls to get it to the pocket so if I can't throw another ball I can get any of them from the bag make my move and start off the game and be highly comfortable the balls going into the pocket. That's not ideal I'd prefer to throw it once to fine tune but rarely am I going to miss the 1-3.

As I mentioned earlier my first set is to get loose the second set if the mastermind goes slightly high I know I can go 2-1 left and be there or I can get the Danger Zone (the danger zone is a little longer and slightly less) stay in the same spot and strike. If it goes Brooklyn I get the Fanatic (lot longer and again slightly less than the VDZ) maybe move 2-1 left just to make sure that I don't put it through the face always adjust so that way I'd rather be light than through the head pin. If it really jumps early then 2-1 left and the Rhino comes out. An arsenal isn't about testing out every ball to see what works it's about throwing a couple of balls with one and being able to go over and get the correct ball from your bag.

It also depends on how you view an arsenal. Some view an arsenal as just a random collection of balls...and the more they have...the more options they have. That's great if you get a 1-2 hour warm-up practice session like the PBA folks. But you have 10 minutes. It's true that the more balls you own...

I see bowlers who do this too and most of them suck.

PBA bowlers don't necessarily use their balls in a particular order their ball coaches help them pick the ball that will allow them to play the portion of the lane that offers the best opportunity to score. I think if you look at their arsenals and watch which balls they throw it will be very rare to watch a telecast where they move systematically from ball x to ball y to ball z. It simply doesn't work that way on league night and decidedly doesn't work that way on tour. I've spent way to much time talking to WPBA and Senior PBA bowlers to believe that for one second.

So, using a progression allows you to go from the ball that hooks the soonest to the ball that hooks the latest. As the lanes transition, you ball down to the next ball in the progression. but probably know what ball to start with. But if you don't have a "progression"...how do you know what ball to pick next? is you don't want to be throwing a Storm Ride and having it lose energy and hit weak....then switch to a Brunswick Nirvanna. If the Ride is hitting weak and losing energy...there's a 0.0001% chance the Nirvanna will make it down the lane without losing energy.

Here where the progression system can let you down. It doesn't really account for how the lanes are set up or how you and your opponents are breaking them down. if you have opponents playing inside of you (in your case I'm sure that happens frequently) and you attempt to move in and ball down your often trading to an even lower oil spot. in an instance like this balling up and moving even farther left may be the best choice or attempting to ball down even farther and stay where your at rarely is bowling as simple as 1+2=3 often you just end up with fish.

The problem with your example is it can work. Say a bowler like you on a house shot with a little oil outside and a puddle in the middle your A game is playing straighter. So I very well might decide my best chance is to start with the Ride playing outside and once that line is dried up ball up to the Absolute and move way inside even though its my B game playing that way.

Your pro shop operator also is essential because they need to know that progression in order to ensure they drill the balls in a way that fits them into those slots. My two strongest balls are drilled pin up to give them a counter-balance their strong specs....and make sure they don't roll out or lose energy too soon. The weaker ball is drilled pin down, to make sure it'll still make a strong move to the pocket despite it's weaker specs.

A pin up drilling does not "counter balance" anything a pin up drill honestly doesn't tell you a whole lot because there are other factors involved dual angle is a much better way of describing the layout of the ball because it tells you all the factors involved with drilling but in general Pin up balls tend towards go farther down the lane and rolling later than a pin up drilling will.

Lets say your arsenal is:

Storm Mix, Storm Lock, Storm Tropical Breeze. You could set up this progression one of two ways:

#1 Lock, #2 Tropical Breeze, #3 Mix

or

#1 Tropical Breeze (drilled/surfaced to hook sooner), #2 Mix, #3 Lock (maybe drilled to hook a bit later)

No matter which option you choose...the bottom line is...if you start with the Mix...and the lanes transition...and your only other two ball options are stronger...you are essentially screwed. If the lanes are too dry for the Mix...they'll be far too dry for the Lock. Thats all there is to a progression...it just keeps you from starting with something that gives you no options come game #3. I If the Skid was burning up and it's polished and designed to go long and snap...why in the World would you switch to a sanded version of that ball designed to hook sooner? It's not the line thats the problem...it's the transition.

This might be true if you consign yourself to a fixed spot on the lane but you are not. You've got to quit thinking of the lanes as a 3 board box. The problem in either of your examples is not the ball being used but where they are trying to play said ball. If you consign yourself to playing up ten only and start with the Skid and try and stay in the same spot and throw the Hyper Cell that's not going to work. You move your feet and target left and straighten the line up it very well could be very effective playing with the Hyper Cell after the Skid.

And (I'll use the anti-Norm Duke spare shooting arguement), Pros use progressions. Almost every single pro has their arsenal lined up in a way that they know if they start with Ball X...when the lanes transition, they switch to Ball Y....then Ball Z. If they start with Ball Y, they will switch to Ball Z, then ?... The ball manufacturers even MAKE THE BALLS in 3-ball progressions (solid, hybrid, pearl). They take the same cores and wrap them in different covers to provide you with an instant progression (should you buy all 3-4 of their "line").

Oh Lord where to start with this mess. The Pro's may come in with an idea of how they would like to adjust from ball to ball but that infrequently plays out that way. Pro's always watch where the others on the lanes are playing and how they are scoring from those break points. I can tell you for certain that if they had a few power players on the set before them or if they had down and in players on the set where they play on the lanes and with which balls are going to change it's not going to be x,y,z.

The fact that the ball manufacturers make everything in three form's now is simply marketing and I'm sure the manufacturers would love for us all to be dumb enough to buy them all I've never seen a single person suggest building and arsenal from different variations of the same ball. The only real differences between those balls are the surfaces they come on them anyway. I did see someone post about buying three of the same ball and putting different surfaces on them but in my opinion that would be a really bad way to build an arsenal.

I don't have access to touring PBA pros often but my PSO drills for 3 PWBA bowlers and 4 PBA Senior bowlers. My coach is one of the Senior's I bowl leagues against 2 of the PWBA league Women and one of them is good friends with my wife and we have lunch together every other Wednesday if she's in town I bowl against 3 of the other seniors in leagues so I get a chance to talk with them a lot. The X,Y,Z argument your trying to make is a bad idea at least 50% of the time in league and you wouldn't win much on the tour that way either

[Aslan]

All of your responses, while mostly, technically correct...are not realistic to average bowlers. See below:

Different lanes in the same house play differently and if your centers are anything like mine the lane machines don't always put the pattern down extactly the same from week to week. You face different competition each week also which effects your progression you can't simply say it's time to change so I'm going to ball 3 every night. Some nights it maybe ball up to 1 and move inside the next night you need to go to three.

Wrong. For MOST centers....in MOST environments...not counting Vegas where there is a massively high user volume on a regular basis...or lanes built on hills where one side plays noticeably different than the other...but MOST centers....the differences you're talking about are so minor and miniscule...that to base ANYTHING off of them (including arsenal usage/progression) is rediculous. This isn't the final 5 of a PBA National event. Most of your competition on league night is (or should be) throwing very basic shots up the track. Some are women throwing plastic balls up the middle, maybe a lefty, a couple elderly guys with old equipment up the track...there's no 'strategy' to avoid them messing up your shot. League bowlers aren't good enough to intentionally "mess with your shot" nor are you/we good enough to focus our efforts on messing with their shot (or focusing on ANYTHING other than bowling well).

More later...

PBA bowlers don't necessarily use their balls in a particular order

Yes, they do.

their ball coaches help them pick the ball that will allow them to play the portion of the lane that offers the best opportunity to score. I think if you look at their arsenals and watch which balls they throw it will be very rare to watch a telecast where they move systematically from ball x to ball y to ball z. It simply doesn't work that way on league night and decidedly doesn't work that way on tour. I've spent way to much time talking to WPBA and Senior PBA bowlers to believe that for one second.

The key word there is "necessarily"...which allows you to then say all the rest of that stuff and still be "technically" correct....while also being dead wrong. I don't know who you're talking to or what event you watched....but I can guarantee...GUARANTEE...that every single pro bowler who is using "Ball X" knows EXACTLY what "Ball Y" and "Ball Z" are....and know EXACTLY what they need to see to switch balls. That is actually one of the greatest differences between amateurs and pros...they can see that ball move in all 3 phases and out the back of the pin deck...and know EXACTLY what they need to do next....or at least...at LEAST...have 1-3 options. Absolutely ZERO professional bowlers...show up with 8 random bowling balls drilled to fit their hand and rely on their minimum wage earning ball reps to just "pick one" based on the ball rep's opinion(s). Ball reps make recommendations, they watch how the competitors are bowling, they can scout the lanes before the pro moves to that pair, etc... But if they recommend a ball change...thats always a "discussion"...not an "instruction".

The problem with your example is it can work.

Uh...yeah....thats the point of it.

This might be true if you consign yourself to a fixed spot on the lane but you are not. You've got to quit thinking of the lanes as a 3 board box. The problem in either of your examples is not the ball being used but where they are trying to play said ball. If you consign yourself to playing up ten only and start with the Skid and try and stay in the same spot and throw the Hyper Cell that's not going to work. You move your feet and target left and straighten the line up it very well could be very effective playing with the Hyper Cell after the Skid.

Again...as I stated above...your concept in THEORY works great....but in REALITY...having 3 distinct lines that you can play and 3 distinct speeds and 3 distinct release variations....all of these are ADVANCED concepts that most pros understand and utilize frequently. PROS. There is only ONE person on this site...that I could see having 3 lines and 3 speeds....and maybe two releases...and thats VDub. Everyone that screams "foul!"...before screaming and whining...write down your:

- 3 distinct lines; examples (Target 10, Stand center), (Target 5, stand 17), (Target 16, stand 23)
- 3 distinct speeds; example (far back in the approach 7-step approach, stand normal, 4-step approach, stand in front of dots, 3-step approach)
- 3 distinct release; examples (90 degrees, 45 degrees, 15 degrees)

If you can't, don't worry...not even every pro can.

You're talking about moving a 6:6 inside with a stronger ball to stay left of two league bowlers? You're going to play a line/style that you KNOW...is your "B-Game"....and just let them play their "A-Games"?? WHY?? OWN THAT LINE!! MAKE THEM MOVE. It's YOUR line too!!

The ONLY thing that happens when you get a rare night where 3-4 bowlers are on the same line....with newer, reactive equipment...is the lanes transition FASTER (not more). I LOVE when this happens!! Because I know...KNOW...that while they may tie me or even beat me in physical ability...once the lanes start to transition...and I follow my progression and know to move and what to look for to move...I'll be a half step ahead of them ALL NIGHT. They will throw the same shots over and over and get split after split....because they don't know what transition is...they didn't take the time to notice all the bowlers on their line, and they don't what to do if they can't stand in ONE place throwing at ONE target. But...to give perspective (which is lacking in your response)...this scenario happens to me, maybe ONCE a league season. This isn't a sport shot league or a travel league or an ABT tournament. MOST league bowlers are horrible bowlers and are just there to have fun. Trying to "outsmart" them by playing my "B Game" is likely just gonna make me bowl worse.

O I did see someone post about buying three of the same ball and putting different surfaces on them but in my opinion that would be a really bad way to build an arsenal.

Not my first choice...but there's technical merit to that approach.

I don't have access to touring PBA pros often but my PSO drills for 3 PWBA bowlers and 4 PBA Senior bowlers. My coach is one of the Senior's I bowl leagues against 2 of the PWBA league Women and one of them is good friends with my wife and we have lunch together every other Wednesday if she's in town I bowl against 3 of the other seniors in leagues so I get a chance to talk with them a lot. The X,Y,Z argument your trying to make is a bad idea at least 50% of the time in league and you wouldn't win much on the tour that way either

Great! Then you can clear this up!

Ask them, at the next ladies tea that you're invited to, "Excuse me ma'am...when you go to a bowling event...

- "...do you take a certain set of bowling balls with you....or do you just show up and they give you whatever they have in the truck?"
- "...and instead of 2 hours of practice...you get 10 minutes...would you start with your ball that hooks the soonest and see if it stays right of the headpin, then throw it and see if it hits right AND carries, possibly ball DOWN to an option that goes longer if said first ball is losing energy? OR...do you just have some hodge-podge gut instinct sort of thing where ya kinda know what each ball does?"
- "...if you're striking and carrying....at what point do you move, switch balls, or go to entire different line. More precisely, if you start out with the front 7...then notice your opponent is now bowling on your line...would you conisder grabbing your strongest ball and bowling 2-handed? Or maybe you throw em a curveball and start throwing urethane on top of that line...settle for 5-6 opens...just to push oil all over their line?"

- "...and lastly, concerning all the previous questions...how good would I have to be...where focusing my efforts on having 2-3 distinct lines and employing strategies to mess with my opponents line(s) is the best use of my time?"