Please note that I am only going to address the Kegel article because, quite frankly, I don't know who wrote the bowlingball.com article, nor when it was written. In skimming it I did note some really inaccurate information.
In terms of the Kegel article:
"In addition, as we stated before, carrydown at the end of the pattern with high flaring balls is not as defined as it was in the 1980’s, or when lower flaring urethane balls were in use. Therefore today there is simply not enough defined carrydown to go around and use as hold area. High rev players tend to get their advantage today more from rapid pattern breakdown towards the mid and end part of the pattern, not carrydown. As most know, low to non-flaring balls today are most often regulated to shooting spares and therefore, those long strips of carrydown are more random across the lane surface - sometime you’ll hit a strip, and sometimes you won’t."
"Remember, today you must think different. No longer are we using non-flaring balls on less than 5 milliliters of solvent based lane conditioner like we did in the 1970’s. No longer are we using low flaring balls on 12 milliliters of oil with massive carrydown like we did in the mid to late 1980’s. No longer are we bowling on lanes that are resurfaced every year like was mandated until deletion of the rule. No longer is levelness being maintained regularly like we did prior to advent of synthetic lanes."
Basically, what this article is saying is the same thing that we have talked about on several occasions in the past. Plastic and urethane balls create carrydown. Reactive balls create very little. The carrydown streaks that are created contain less than 5 units of oil, and modern reactive bowling balls do not react to oil volumes that are under 8 units. When you move left on a short pattern and see that your ball does not make it back, it's because it has expended all of its energy early and burned up, not hit the mythical carrydown. For all but the highest speed and highest rev players, the most effective move when the pattern starts to break down on a short pattern is to move right, not left, and keep the ball further toward the outside of the lane. This is why it is not uncommon to see bowlers throw gutter balls on short patterns as they are trying to get their bowling balls to hang over the gutter at forty feet.
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