Aslan's Weekly Chris Barnes/Joe Slowinski Statistics Nerd Thread: Part II

[Aslan]

Above is a graph of bowling ball strike rate (strikes per frame bowled) for the Slingshot, the Frantic, and the less aggressively drilled/surfaced Encounter.

First, the nerd-0-nomics of these balls (Mudpuppy close your eyes!)

The Slingshot is a $57 entry-level ball that used to be the entry level ball for Brunswick prior to the Strike King. It has a high RG (2.594), it's a Pearl cover stock, a symmetric core, and a low Diff./flare of 0.017.

The Frantic is a mid-level hybrid cover stock, symmetric core ball now replaced by Storms Punch Out/Lights Out line. It has a moderate RG of 2.53 and a moderate Diff. of 0.045.

The Encounter is a Pearl but asymmetric core. It is Columbia's old pro performance ball before they changed to the Enigma and Antics lines. It has a 2.50 RG and a higher Diff./flare of 0.052.

The reason for this test is that I've struggled lately with carry in particular and Amyers made the observation that I had switched to using the Slingshot as my benchmark ball and perhaps since it is such an entry level ball…maybe it was contributing to the issues.

The chart above shows that the Slingshot had a strike rate of about 20%. The Frantic and Encounter had a slightly higher strike rate of around 30%.

Now, thats great, but to take this little test 1 step further, I also broke it down in terms of what was left when each ball didn't strike. And the numbers looked like this:

Slingshot:
Strikes: 20%
Makeable Spares: 64%
Unmakeable Spares: 12%
Splits: 4%

Frantic:
Strikes: 29%
Makeable Spares: 52%
Unmakeable Spares: 3%
Splits: 16%

Encounter:
Strikes: 33%
Makeable Spares: 47%
Unmakeable Spares: 1%
Splits: 19%

So this data set shows a few things:

1) The Slingshot didn't seem to strike as well as the other two higher performance balls.
2) The Frantic and Encounter were both 4-5x as likely to result in a split.
3) While the Slingshot didn't leave many splits; it did leave 3-12x as many unmakeable spares.

So, similar to Part I of this NerdFest…

1) Is this statistical breakdown of any value?
2) Could it shed some light on the situation of the bowler in question having a low strike rate and leaving lots of unmake able spares with the Slingshot?
3) Is there some concern that the other two balls are more likely to leave splits?
4) Does this data set lead one to believe that there actually is some significant difference between different levels of bowling balls and ball technology.

[bowl1820]

Suggestion:

Instead of taking a photograph of your screen, Export the chart as a image file or do screen capture (If you have Windows 7 Use the windows snipping tool ((It should be in the accessories folder in the start menu)) or use the Printscreen button and paste it into paint and save as jpg) and upload it.

It would make your charts easier to read.

Example using the snipping tool:

[Amyers]

Pretty much what I expected the slingshot offers less recovery so lower strike and higher washout percentage leading to more unmakeable spares. The downside is being in the pocket more will result in more shots going high and leaving a higher split percentage. Myself I would take the extra strikes and deal with the splits.

to answer your questions

1. Yes this does have value
2. Yes I believe it does
3. Concern not really the difference between a split and a unmakable spare is nil
4. Yes obviously born out by the data displayed

[Aslan]

Suggestion:

Instead of taking a photograph of your screen, Export the chart as a image file or do screen capture (If you have Windows 7 Use the windows snipping tool ((It should be in the accessories folder in the start menu)) or use the Printscreen button and paste it into paint and save as jpg) and upload it.

It would make your charts easier to read.

I actually thought about doing that but was using a Mac and couldn't remember how to do the Print Screen thing on Mac OS. But thank you for the suggestion.

Pretty much what I expected the slingshot offers less recovery so lower strike and higher washout percentage leading to more unmakeable spares. The downside is being in the pocket more will result in more shots going high and leaving a higher split percentage. Myself I would take the extra strikes and deal with the splits.

to answer your questions

1. Yes this does have value
2. Yes I believe it does
3. Concern not really the difference between a split and a unmakable spare is nil
4. Yes obviously born out by the data displayed

Adaboy for answering all the questions.

And I think I may agree with you on all 4 points. Especially your observation that if you consider an unmakeable spare = Split...then the advantage of the Slingshot becomes null.

I remember watching a LOT of Earl Anthony videos and during one of them the telecaster commented that one of the things that made Earl Anthony great was when he left spares, he left very make-able spares with a lower degree of difficulty. His style merged with his accuracy and his lower rev rate wouldn't always be as powerful as the competition, yet if he "missed", it wasn't a big deal because he had an easy spare and was a tremendous spare shooter.

I made the mistake of adopting that same strategy by erroring on the side of coming in light and leaving make-able spares rather than risk going through the middle. However, there was one big problem with that strategy; I am NOT the spare shooter that Earl Anthony was. So leaving 7-9 spares in a game wasn't going to give me a 190; it was going to likely give me a 161. In ADDITION...going more left also means some of those shots strike brooklyn...and even some of the shots through the head leave a 4-7 or a 6-10.

So I think trying to stay right and get that "perfect shot" into the pocket...while not risking a split...I think that strategy isn't what I should use. I think I need to be more focused on hitting the headpin...even if not where I want to...rather than continue to leave 1-2s or 1-2-4s or 1-2-8s. I think I will be more successful OVERALL by leaving a 4-7, 6-10, and 4-7-10 rather than leaving a 1-2, 1-2-4, and 1-2-8. Sure, I "could" make all 3 of those spares where I missed the headpin and really have no shot at making the 4-7-10. But the number of 1-2-4s and 1-2-8s I've left and chopped in the last couple months is astounding. I have to go back to the basics of just hitting that headpin. Hammering that headpin and hoping for the best rather than being afraid of it and leaving it standing for a second shot.

[J Anderson]

1) Is this statistical breakdown of any value?
If all the data was obtained at the same bowling center under similar conditions, it would indicate that you shouldn't use the Slingshot when you need that foundation strike in the ninth frame.

2) Could it shed some light on the situation of the bowler in question having a low strike rate and leaving lots of unmake able spares with the Slingshot?
Yes.

3) Is there some concern that the other two balls are more likely to leave splits?
Not really. As Amyers said there's not really any difference between unmakeables and splits

4) Does this data set lead one to believe that there actually is some significant difference between different levels of bowling balls and ball technology.
Yes, but it's the wrong question. What matters in today's game is having a ball that you can string strikes with on the lane condition you're facing. I am not saying that you need to buy more bowling balls, or that you need to buy the latest greatest ball from your favorite company. You do need to find one that works with your abilities on the conditions you usually face.

[bowl1820]

On a mac to Capture a specific window

Press Command (⌘)-Shift-4, press the Space bar, move the camera pointer over the window to highlight it, and then click.

[Aslan]

1) I am not saying that you need to buy more bowling balls, .

Thank God for that.

On a mac to Capture a specific window

Press Command (⌘)-Shift-4, press the Space bar, move the camera pointer over the window to highlight it, and then click.

Thank you. I will try that next time.

[JJKinGA]

I'll throw in my 2 cents...
Based on scoring (and knowing thatyou throuw a first ball average of >8):
Two strikes in a row is +20 in a frame
A strike followed by a spare is +11 or +12, same for a spare followed by a strike
A strike or spare followed by an open is +10

so I think that the best way to look at it is odds of throwing a double:
sling shot: 4%.
Frantic: 8.4%
Encounter: 10.9%

So the encounter is worth about 24 pins per game, frantic is 9 pins per game and the slingshot is 8 pins just based on stringing doubles

Then looking at closed frames (less the double percentage)
Encounter is 80% -10.9% = 69.1%
Frantic is 81% - 8.4% = 72.6%
Slingshot is 84% -4% = 80%

so based on marks, the encounter is worth 75 pins per game, frantic is 79 pins per game and the slingshot is 88 pins per game

Total value: encounter is 99 pins per game, frantic is 88 pins per game and slingshot is 96 pins per game

So there is some value to makeable spares - enough that it overcomes the lack of strikes compared to the frantic.

[Aslan]

Oooo....a 'dorky' "numbers" response!!

If I had a pize giveaway for this thread...you would be the frontrunner!!!

Well done.

[Aslan]

Got to practice with the Slingshot and more aggressive (drilled/surfaced) Encounter tonight and the numbers were a little different:

Slingshot:
Strikes: 33.3%
Makeable Spares: 52.3%
Unmakeable Spares: 8%
Splits: 6.3%

Encounter:
Strikes: 29%
Makeable Spares: 53%
Unmakeable Spares: 7%
Splits: 11%

So this data set shows very different things:

1) The Slingshot struck slightly more often or it was a push.
2) Both balls tended to leave very similar spares in terms of "make-able" and "unmakeable".
3) The only real difference was that the Encounter struck slightly less and split slightly more often.

So, why?

Well, I noticed that the Encounter actually struck less on the right side and had more Brooklyn strikes or strikes through the headpin. When those don't "strike", they tend to split. So the Encounter was behaving more aggressively…it just wasn't giving me the same results as last time.

The Slingshot was thrown up the 11-board with a lay down right around the 10-board. Very straight shot…a small amount of hook at the end. Some shots seemed almost straight into the pocket. When it missed, it usually hit light…lots of 1-2 leaves…and 1-2-4s.

The Encounter was thrown up the 12 and 13 boards but the lay down was more like 14/15. It had better hook and power WHEN I release it well. The Slingshot I release "okay" and fairly consistent. But the Encounter I had some thumb stick problems and that led me to have a very inconsistent release…which with an asymmetric core is going to result in an inconsistent, even erratic ball motion. Some shots would be flat and go straight into the 6-10. Others would get too much movement and cross over.