Aslan's Weekly Chris Barnes/Joe Slowinski Statistics Nerd Thread: Part IV

[Aslan]

Next Topic: Spare Shooting



Specifically, single-pin spare shooting.

So;

1) Is this a useful stat? Something you pay attention to? Or should? Why/why not?

2) What does the graph say about this bowler's skill/lack there of? Can anything be drawn from it?

Me personally;
Like strike %, this is a key stat I track. There are nights where I'll score well but overall not be happy with my game because my single-pin spare shooting is less than perfect. And there will be other days where my scores will be lower but I won't feel as bad if I went 90-100% on single-pin spares.

Is it useful?

I think it is because overall spare shooting or multi-pin spare shooting can fluctuate a great deal since multi-pin spares all have varying degrees of difficulty. Leave a bunch of 3/4 buckets…you might shoot good. But, you leave some trickier ones and suddenly you're staring at a 30% spare shooting night. Single-pin spares are all generally the same with only slight increases in difficulty as you move towards the corners.

And, as your game gets better and better…single-pin spares should dominate the leaves. Most pros will either strike or leave a single-pin. Maybe an occasional split. But a bunch of multi-pin spares is relatively rare.

As to what the graph shows about MY game…well…I think the graph shows a steady improvement from around 65% to nearly 72% over time. Then there was a bit of a regression near the pink line as I began to make changes to my approach/timing/game/coaching….down to around 70%. The yellow line is where I switched to plastic for spares…which has led to another very slight regression to just over 69.5%.

So…no…it really doesn't shed much light on anything other than me having a very slight average improvement over time and thus far the plastic experiment is not helping the single pin spare %…but only by a hair.

[J Anderson]

What's up with the time scale? Some blocks appear to be one month, others two.

"Single-pin spares are all generally the same with only slight increases in difficulty as you move towards the corners." Only the corner pins are truly more difficult than a five pin. I admit that I know a few bowlers who throw very slow hooks that are only 50/50 on the 6 pin, but for the rest of us it shouldn't be any harder than a five pin.

Would probably be more useful to track percentage for individual pins, i.e. % of ten pins made, % of 6 pins made, etc. But then again the sample size might be too small to be useful unless you're bowling dozens of games per week.

[MICHAEL]

Lion MAN,,,, are you SURE that's not your EKG, or EGG??? I showed it to a doctor I work out with, and he said, Dial 911, and ask for Bowling HELP, like NOW!

[Aslan]

"Single-pin spares are all generally the same with only slight increases in difficulty as you move towards the corners." Only the corner pins are truly more difficult than a five pin. I admit that I know a few bowlers who throw very slow hooks that are only 50/50 on the 6 pin, but for the rest of us it shouldn't be any harder than a five pin.

That is true...BUT...the reason I think a 4-pin or 6-pin is 'slightly' harder than a 8 or 9 which are 'slightly' harder than a 2 or 3 which are 'slightly' harder than a 5...which is slightly harder than a 1 is this:

For a 1-pin...its your strike shot. For a 5-pin, it's basically your strike shot. For a 2 or 3 pin...it's essentially your strike shot with a minor adjustment. Same thing for the 8 or 9 pins. BUT...once you get to the 4 or 6 pins...that is usually where you switch to plastic (if you haven't already) because depending on the pattern, the strike ball may not work. So now you're switching balls and switching lines. And obviously the corner pins are the same but add the difficulty of not hacing the same miss room on the gutter side.

Would probably be more useful to track percentage for individual pins, i.e. % of ten pins made, % of 6 pins made, etc. But then again the sample size might be too small to be useful unless you're bowling dozens of games per week.

You're in luck! For the data displayed, here are the individual pin %s:

1-pin: 6/11; 54%
2-pin: 117/148; 79%
3-pin: 146/183; 79%
4-pin: 199/276; 72%
5-pin: 175/222; 78%
6-pin: 228/303; 75%
7-pin: 181/291; 62%
8-pin: 22/33; 66%
9-pin: 110/141; 78%
10-pin: 330/562; 58%

So, the 1-pin aside which is a rare, rare leave...not sure why it's only at 54%....MOST of the single-pin spare shots are in the high 70s except for the 7 and 8 pins which are in the 60s and the dreaded single 10-pin in the high 50s.

Looking at the results individually like this, I might take the position that rather than track "single-pin spare %"...it might be just as useful to track just the 10-pin because it's the only real "problem child" of the group. My only hesitation with that is, lately the 7-pin has become a real problem for me to hit. so if I go 9/10 on 10-pins and 1/6 on 7-pins...but only track the 10s...then I'm not focusing on a problem.

[Amyers]

I tend to go back and forth with the 10 pin/7 pin shooting if I'm hitting one I'm missing the other it's just wierd

[vdubtx]

1 pin only 54%?? That should be fixed stat!!

[Aslan]

1 pin only 54%?? That should be fixed stat!!

It's hard to "fix" when you've left it 11 times in 9485 shots (0.12%). So I need to take 833 shots in order to leave a 1-pin. And just making it ONCE more...I'd be up to 58%!!

Only other leave I've left exactly 11 times in 9485 shots??? The 6-9. I'm 72% on that one though.

What I REALLY need to fix is leaving the 1-2-8. Left that 132 times and am only 53% at picking it up. Thats a hard leave for a right hander. Lately I've been trying to throw a back-up ball at it with not much luck.

[Amyers]

Yeah I hate the 1-2-8 but don't leave them that often and usually when I do I figure that's what I get for throwing a bad shot and leaving that mess up there. I have to have screwed up pretty bad to leave a head pin standing though maybe once a series for me.

[Aslan]

I leave the headpin a lot more than I should. But as I learn to "stay behind the ball" (rather than up the side), I lose the room for error. If the ball falls off my hand and I can't go "through" the ball...it's gonna miss right. So right now, I leave a lot of 1-2, 1-2-4, 1-2-4-7, , 1-2-8, 1-2-4-10, etc... because I'm "dropping" the ball. It's also because the thumb hole is to big in many cases and my hand isn't under the ball. Add to that mess...that my timing went from early to late...and now my shoulders don't square up to the foul line when I release...another cause of missing right...and you have a recipe for disaster.

The only "good" news is I split a LOT less than most bowlers. If I have a bad release...I miss right of the headpin. If I have a good release...strike or a 6-10 or a single-pin leave. Like, last league night...had one split the whole night. Most nights it's 1-3.

[Amyers]

I leave the headpin a lot more than I should. But as I learn to "stay behind the ball" (rather than up the side), I lose the room for error. If the ball falls off my hand and I can't go "through" the ball...it's gonna miss right. So right now, I leave a lot of 1-2, 1-2-4, 1-2-4-7, , 1-2-8, 1-2-4-10, etc... because I'm "dropping" the ball. It's also because the thumb hole is to big in many cases and my hand isn't under the ball. Add to that mess...that my timing went from early to late...and now my shoulders don't square up to the foul line when I release...another cause of missing right...and you have a recipe for disaster.

The only "good" news is I split a LOT less than most bowlers. If I have a bad release...I miss right of the headpin. If I have a good release...strike or a 6-10 or a single-pin leave. Like, last league night...had one split the whole night. Most nights it's 1-3.

I'm not sure that "I can't hit the pocket consistently so I don't leave many splits" is really an advantage. If your thumb hole is loose add tape. I have to adjust my tape at least once a month sometimes every week. I know we have more temperature variation than you do but still.