Aslan's Weekly Chris Barnes/Joe Slowinski Statistics Nerd Thread: Part IV

[Aslan]

Lemme try to shed some light on the statistical debate here. I needed to get to work where I had my cheat sheet so I could verify.

In the video I attached, MWhite:

1st Frame: Missed headpin on both shots. (0/2)
2nd frame: Hit headpin on shot 1. (1/3)
3rd frame: Missed headpin then hit it. (2/5)
4th frame: Missed headpin then hit it. (3/7)
5th frame: Hit headpin on first shot. (4/8)
6th frame: Hit headpin on first shot. (5/9)
7th frame: Hit headpin on first shot. (6/10)
8th frame: Hit headpin on first shot. (7/11)
9th frame: Missed headpin then hit it. (8/13)
10th frame: Hit headpin on first shot. (9/14)

9/14 = 64%
Which means, in 14 chances he missed the headpin 5 of 14 times = 37% (rounded down to 36%).

Now, MWhite contends that this is an unfair representation because:
1) It's only ONE game.
2) It's not on his usual house condition.

Now, to address point #2 first...he's saying he is at effectively 0% if you don't count sport patterns, tournaments, or the VBT...where he has to bowl outside his comfort zone or on tougher conditions.

As for point #1....I actually agree that this ONE game is not a fair look at his ability. BUT...lets say instead of 36%...we reduce that by 1/3 and say it's 10%. Thats still WELL above 0%. I personally conisder "essentially 0%" to be < 0.6%. Which means, in 1000 games (which I imagine is close)...thats 10,000 frames. In order to reach 0.6%, MWhite would have to throw 60 shots where he misses the headpin. In this ONE game...he threw 5. That leaves 55. That sounds like a LOT...but lets assume MWhite had a really bad game that day...and he actually NEVER misses 5 headpins in a game. Of matter of fact...lets say it's 1/5 of that number. Or better yet..1/10th.

That means, he'd miss 0.5 headpins per game for 999 games. Thats 499 headpins (rounded down). That would mean he missed 504 headpins in 10,000 frames = 504/10000 = 5%.

Even if we assume for the rest of the year...he only misses 2 headpins per SERIES (thats 2 headpins in 30 frames)...thats 66 + 5 = 71/10,000 = 0.71%


So what does all this non-gfit non-IceGod numery gooogily gook actually MEAN!?? NOTHING. It's just that even though....I think MWhite is a highly under-rated bowler....and I take credit for that misperception because much of it is the result of him losing to me at the 1ABHMAVZI and then getting humiliated on the Aslan vs. MWhite Wood Lane Challenge....from what I've seen...based on starting the year with 5 missed headpins in ONE game....and I don't care if he thinks those lanes were crazy or not...the liklihood and probability that he'd be at < 0.6% by the end of the season (and thus could legitimately claim "0%") is highly unlikely. Not impossible. And yes, I guess if you trim away all games on lanes outside your home center or on tournament conditions...then you could theortetically get to maybe 0.4-0.5%

...but since we're having this conversation as part of a larger criticism of MY game...and I've bowled in 20 different centers on 11 different lane conditions in 2 different states and 4 different local USBCs....I think we need a more honest comaprison than "Aslan misses headpins and I never, ever do*!"

* not including any shot not thrown at one center, on fresh oil, and excluding the nights where I disagreed that said oil pattern was applied to my liking...or on nights where I just had a sub-par performance or any type of soreness or anything like an allergy or a head cold or even a small amount of stress.

See...I didn't read the disclaimer. HAD I READ IT...okay...lets just say 0.2%...and thats close enough to zero. So I AGREE!

[Mike White]

Lemme try to shed some light on the statistical debate here. I needed to get to work where I had my cheat sheet so I could verify.

In the video I attached, MWhite:

1st Frame: Missed headpin on both shots. (0/2)
2nd frame: Hit headpin on shot 1. (1/3)
3rd frame: Missed headpin then hit it. (2/5)
4th frame: Missed headpin then hit it. (3/7)
5th frame: Hit headpin on first shot. (4/8)
6th frame: Hit headpin on first shot. (5/9)
7th frame: Hit headpin on first shot. (6/10)
8th frame: Hit headpin on first shot. (7/11)
9th frame: Missed headpin then hit it. (8/13)
10th frame: Hit headpin on first shot. (9/14)

9/14 = 64%
Which means, in 14 chances he missed the headpin 5 of 14 times = 37% (rounded down to 36%).

Here again, I have to question your observation skills.

In the 4th frame I left a 2-4-5-7-8.

That changes the counting to 9 out of 13, or 4 misses out of 13 tries

Now, MWhite contends that this is an unfair representation because:
1) It's only ONE game.
2) It's not on his usual house condition.

Now, to address point #2 first...he's saying he is at effectively 0% if you don't count sport patterns, tournaments, or the VBT...where he has to bowl outside his comfort zone or on tougher conditions.

As for point #1....I actually agree that this ONE game is not a fair look at his ability. BUT...lets say instead of 36%...we reduce that by 1/3 and say it's 10%. Thats still WELL above 0%. I personally conisder "essentially 0%" to be < 0.6%. Which means, in 1000 games (which I imagine is close)...thats 10,000 frames. In order to reach 0.6%, MWhite would have to throw 60 shots where he misses the headpin. In this ONE game...he threw 5. That leaves 55. That sounds like a LOT...but lets assume MWhite had a really bad game that day...and he actually NEVER misses 5 headpins in a game. Of matter of fact...lets say it's 1/5 of that number. Or better yet..1/10th.

That means, he'd miss 0.5 headpins per game for 999 games. Thats 499 headpins (rounded down). That would mean he missed 504 headpins in 10,000 frames = 504/10000 = 5%.

Even if we assume for the rest of the year...he only misses 2 headpins per SERIES (thats 2 headpins in 30 frames)...thats 66 + 5 = 71/10,000 = 0.71%

More bad math.

2 per series is 2/30 = 6.6% that would equate to 666 per 10000 frames


Essentially 0% means < 0.5%

Lets assume I can achieved 0.5% over the course of 1000 games, including the one game in question.

(4 + 46) / 10000 = 0.5%

In 999 games, I would be allowed 46 misses.

So excluding that one game, I would have to achieve a miss rate of about 0.46% to compensate for that one day in hell.

Even one miss per 20 games is probably higher than what I do.

You might have a hard time with that concept because of how much better it is than your percentages.

It's not that I'm better than most bowlers of similar average to myself, it just shows how much room for improvement you have.

[Aslan]

You might have a hard time with that concept because of how much better it is than your percentages.

It's not that I'm better than most bowlers of similar average to myself, it just shows how much room for improvement you have.

Well, yeah.

In that game you left it 4 of 14 times and I left it 6 of 15 times. ZDawg...well, I'm sure he doesn't want to remember it so we'll leave him out of it.

And I do tend to miss the headpin more than you for certain. I don't think you're at 0%...but Sunday morning I missed it 3x, 2x, 2x, and 1x (per game). Thursday league I missed it 4x, 1x, and 1x. So, on AVERAGE...twice per game. If I'm LUCKY...it's a 1-2. But most of the time I'm UNLUCKY and it's a 1-2-4, 1-2-8, 1-2-4-7, 1-3-6, 1-3-6-10, or the ever-wonderful 1-5-8-9. Hopefully my new change in how I figure out which ball to use (using a more aggressive ball to start) will keep me from hitting so light. But so far, the data actually has me missing more in the first game than subsequent games...so we'll see.

[Amyers]

Regardless of the rest of this nonsense. 2-4 misses per game is high but unless were talking about the cure for his missing the head pin what's the point. I don't track my stats the way you do Aslan but I'm pretty sure I miss one once a series maybe twice on a really bad night. I will track it the next time I bowl just to be sure it doesn't happen more often than I think but it takes a pretty bad shot for me to completely miss the headpin.

[Aslan]

Regardless of the rest of this nonsense. 2-4 misses per game is high but unless were talking about the cure for his missing the head pin what's the point. I don't track my stats the way you do Aslan but I'm pretty sure I miss one once a series maybe twice on a really bad night. I will track it the next time I bowl just to be sure it doesn't happen more often than I think but it takes a pretty bad shot for me to completely miss the headpin.

Oddly enough...I bet it happens more than you think (my point to MWhite). I rarely ever gutter on the first ball. But I used to...at least once per series back whn I was lofting the ball up the 4-7 boards. And it's certainly harder to miss the 1-2-3 entirely on a THS than it is on a sport pattern. But we've all thrown that one shot per night where it sticks or we drop it...and then you end up with a 3-5 count.

I think it happens a lot more to me than most bowlers because:

1) I'm more of an outside/in player. I don't split very often. I'd rather come in light and leave a 6-pin or something like that than go through the head and leave a 7-10 or greek church.

2) I also struggle with it more than others because I'm trying to develop a better fit with my bowling balls to avoid "grabbing" or "pinching" in the thumbhole. That causes the ball to sometimes fall off my hand before I'm ready...and unless it's really dry conditions...it likely won't make it all the way back to the pocket.

3) I am still adjusting a bit to a change from older wood lanes to new synthetic lanes. What used to come back despite a 3-7 board miss to the right...it don't come back anymore. Now I'm thankful if I can hit the head-pin when I miss by more than ONE board, but >2 and I'm dead in the water. Especially on sport patterns.

4) Like Mike said...I bowl more league games on sport patterns than I do on THS patterns. I practice 3-4 times as much on THS patterns. But still, about 33-47% of my bowling each week is on a sport pattern. And those are generally a 1-board miss situation. The recent PBA Dick Weber was a bit more forgiving...but the Shark and Scorpion were not.

5) Despite my post total (not yet God level dangit!)...and despite what Iceman claims...I've only been bowling for 15 months. A lot of these "wiesneheimers" like VDub and MWhite have 15, 20, 35 YEARS of experience on hitting the pocket. Even Amyers...a former competitive youth bowler. Even ZDawg might have more years than I do. It's odd that whenever I attempt to spread my wisdom (or lack there of), I'm usually reminded that I'm too new to the sport and therefore my opinion should be taken with a grain of salt...but when I miss 5 out of 11 1-pins (7 out of 12 now...I left one and picked it up in sport league Sunday morning), It's treated as though Norm Duke left and missed 3 single 5-pins in one game. Cut a guy some slack. I still have 10 years before I need to beat Chris Barnes in the 2025 USBC Senior Masters.

[Aslan]

2-4 misses per game is high .

Just for the sake of discussion...the misses the first game last Tuesday were:

1-2-4 in frame 1. 1-2 in frame 4. 1-2-3-4-5-7-9 in frame 7. And 1-2-3-4-5-7-8 in frame 8.

The first 2 I blame on not yet finding the line/ball I was comfortable with. My new "improved" (jury still out) way I decide what ball to use and line to play tends to take longer...and with only 15 minutes of practice and 5-man teams...every shot counts. If I mess up...I might still be trying things out when Game 1 starts...as was the case for Game 1 Tuesday.

The second 2 I just dropped the ball. I switched balls in the 5th frame to see if I should stick with the Rhythm or use the Encounter (A) and the Encounter's thumb-hole is a bit larger (despite about 8 pieces of tape) than the Ryhthm. So I had to do some tape work on that thumb-hole. The Rhythm thumb-hole is the only one that seems pretty good on a consistent basis in terms of fit. The Bullet Train has the "IT" system, but I need an insert that is another size smaller than the smallest one I bought. The other 3 balls have larger thumb holes and the Bill Hall tri-grip...which I "think" has my thumb pitched in a way that makes the ball more likely to fall off.

Once I get more confident and consistent with getting my thumb to come out clean...I can tighten up the thumb holes a bit. I'm reluctant to do it NOW because if I get them just right...and then pinch...it'll be carrying me over the foul line.

[Amyers]

Wasn't trying to come down hard on you just you should realize that number of missed head pins is way too high. As far as being light versus high in the pocket not for my self personally cause I don't have the ball speed some of these guys do but they seem to carry the high hits as well or even better than the light ones. I can't talk about sport patterns I intend to try one this summer but my only experience is bowling in practice on some the next day after a sports league this summer and I'm sure that's not really the same thing.

Fit is important and I think more so to those of us less experienced. I went to a demo day and tried to throw some shots with the generic stuff they had out and couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with it. Felt like an idiot then I watch one of my teammates who is a lefty (I'm a righty) and has much smaller finger than me pick up 7 pins with my ball with ease.

I'm not sure if my youth bowling days 20 years ago are a help or an impediment probably some of both. We both have been actively bowling this time around about the same length of time.

My main point is fix whatever is keeping you out of the pocket on a regular basis be it fit or not adjusting quickly enough I'll take the occasional split or light hit but a high percentage of your balls should be at least in the pocket weather light or high I would love to get to where all my shots are dead on in the pocket I'm not there yet but I am getting to where I'm adjusting where I am in the pocket now and not just getting there.

[Mike White]

Well, yeah.

In that game you left it 4 of 14 times and I left it 6 of 15 times. ZDawg...well, I'm sure he doesn't want to remember it so we'll leave him out of it.

And I do tend to miss the headpin more than you for certain. I don't think you're at 0%...but Sunday morning I missed it 3x, 2x, 2x, and 1x (per game). Thursday league I missed it 4x, 1x, and 1x. So, on AVERAGE...twice per game. If I'm LUCKY...it's a 1-2. But most of the time I'm UNLUCKY and it's a 1-2-4, 1-2-8, 1-2-4-7, 1-3-6, 1-3-6-10, or the ever-wonderful 1-5-8-9. Hopefully my new change in how I figure out which ball to use (using a more aggressive ball to start) will keep me from hitting so light. But so far, the data actually has me missing more in the first game than subsequent games...so we'll see.

Bringing ZDawg into it sheds light on how difficult the conditions were.

Unlike you (who throws the ball very straight), ZDawg and I hook the ball into the pocket assuming there will be ball reaction in the back ends.

Since his average is similar to yours, it's safe to assume he hits the headpin at least as often as you do while on conditions considered normal.

You missed 5 out of 13, 8 out of 15, and 2 out of 12,
I missed 4 out of 13, 3 out of 14, and 0 out of 11.
He missed 8 out of 16, 10 out of 16, and 5 out of 14.

I don't have a record of what happened on "bonus" shots in 10th frames, so I count those as neither misses nor attempts unless it's obvious from the score.

[Aslan]

poor ZDawg. Mike just outed him.

The good news is...we all seemed to figure things out by the third game.

I'm not sure if leaving the head pin is bad so long as you know WHY you left it. I see lots of beginning bowlers and the ball is spraying all over the place. You leave a LOT of 1-pins with that lack of strategy. But if you can look at your missed opportunities and realize WHY you missed...then at least it's a learning moment.

[zdawg]

Even ZDawg might have more years than I do.

Technically maybe, the first time I EVER bowled was probably in the early 80's but I was a little kid and it was duckpin bowling (which I think is only a regional thing and doesn't exist in most places outside of where I grew up). After that, I maybe went bowling 10-15 times total throughout grade school/highschool/college using house balls and just trying to throw the ball as hard as I could (like a lot of open bowlers). So, I consider the start of my bowling "career" the first night of league last Fall (2013) which was something like Sept 9th last year? So we have probably been bowling about the same amount of time.

poor ZDawg. Mike just outed him

But I have no problem admitting I bowled horribly that day despite my average being as low as it was at the time, I still bowled one of my worst series ever

That said we should really discuss another SoCal tournament, maybe early next year so I can try to redeem myself