Aslan's Weekly Chris Barnes/Joe Slowinski Statistics Nerd Thread: Part IV

[Aslan]

The trouble with leaving the head pin is, that as Aslan said, to make it you just need to throw a strike shot. Well your first ball missed the pocket. How are you going to throw the ball with confidence when you've just missed (for whatever reason) the shot you have to make the spare?

Exactly. If I LEFT a 1-pin...it's because I either missed my mark or my mark was wrong. So...since each shot is independent of the last...I likely will have a 50/50 shot of making an adjustment to correct for it. Probably better than 50%. If I missed my mark...I adjust and hit my mark. If the ball went way right...I know which way to move to have a better chance.

But arguing about the 1-pin is nuts because to leave JUST a 1-pin...is similar in difficulty to picking up a hard split. If we're talking 5-pin...yes, it's fairly easy to pick up. But if you leave one, you likely hit brooklyn. And if you throw that same shot...you'll miss the 5-pin. So it's not automatic. Nothing is automatic.

[Mike White]

Uhhhhh....I don't want to argue semantics...but that "zero"....I mean, based on this classic bowling coverage from one of the greatest bowling tournaments in memory...well, yeah...I'm calculating about 36% of the time you miss the headpin???

I'm not sayin....I'm just sayin.

First off I don't trust your math, but I don't have time now to go back and confirm it.

Lets assume you reached 36% because I missed 12 times out of 33.


Over the course of about 500 games per season (league and practice) those 3 games would represent about 0.6% of my bowling.

So missing 36% on that one occasion, would have an effect on my overall % by about 0.2%.

I'll stick with my "just about 0%"

[MICHAEL]

Are these those tough lanes??? Wood??? Wow, watched the first 5 ten minutes, I think I could have beat all of you LEFT HANDED!!! Did it get better as the video progressed,,, LOL

Tell me it did, and that it was the wood lanes that you beat Mike on!!!

Looked like a nice place other then those huge distraction devises above the pins!! What a crazy place to have a 100 inch TV!!! Is bowling that
boring that a TV the size of a small car needs to be there????

I wonder, during leagues, do they have them ON!?

[Aslan]

Those were the wonderfully distracting lanes in Temecula. No, they are not wood. It's a smaller center that caters to birthday parties and teen non-sense. The billiards area is almost as big as the bowling area.

Yes…the bowling DID get better…especially for MWhite. As has been written in the stone tablets of destiny; Aslan DID WIN the 1st Annual Billy Hardwick Memorial Aslan vs. ZDawg Invitational and ZDawg finished a close 2nd with Mike coming in 3rd. But, Mike made a valiant charge at the end to put some pressure on us.

I unfortunately had to bowl my last round of the VBT there and it wasn't fun. The TVs and environment is mega distracting.

[Mike White]

Are these those tough lanes??? Wood??? Wow, watched the first 5 ten minutes, I think I could have beat all of you LEFT HANDED!!! Did it get better as the video progressed,,, LOL

Tell me it did, and that it was the wood lanes that you beat Mike on!!!

Looked like a nice place other then those huge distraction devises above the pins!! What a crazy place to have a 100 inch TV!!! Is bowling that
boring that a TV the size of a small car needs to be there????

I wonder, during leagues, do they have them ON!?

This was the polish wall condition. Zero ball reaction outside of 10, and if you got it in, it would hook brooklyn.

I "solved" the problem by moving way in, and tried to keep the ball left of 15 board.

If I left a spare shot on the right hand side, it was an adventure.

And yes, you might have done better left handed, because we don't know if the left side (outside) was anywhere near as bad as the right side was.

[Mike White]

Uhhhhh....I don't want to argue semantics...but that "zero"....I mean, based on this classic bowling coverage from one of the greatest bowling tournaments in memory...well, yeah...I'm calculating about 36% of the time you miss the headpin???

I'm not sayin....I'm just sayin.

Ok I went back and counted, and guess what, your math sucks as bad as your bowling.

I threw 32 first ball shots, 5 of those didn't hit the head pin.

Of those 5 times I had a headpin to shoot at again, I missed it once.

That makes a total of 6 misses out of 37 tries for a total of 16% miss rate on that specific day.

I was asked to sub tonight. Under normal (easy) conditions, I missed the head pin a total of 0 times, shooting games of 223, 239, 237, for a series of 699.

[Mike White]

No it's not hard to "fix". You shoot at and just to the right of that darn pin to start every single frame. It is like someone missing the 5 pin for a spare conversion. Some of my team mates on Thursdays miss it regularly.

He doesn't understand the words coming out of your keyboard.

[MICHAEL]

YOUR WAY TO HEAD!
Maybe a lobotomy, or partial Lobotomy
JUST MIGHT HELP!

Maybe before that try Electrical Shock!

YOU THINK WAY TO MUCH for the Size of
YOUR BRAIN!!

I hear tell that even while doing the basic thing below, he makes it more complicated then what it really is, always looking for a way to up his average deposit!! LOL

[Aslan]

I don't keep my stats, but the % of time I miss the head pin, is just about 0%.

That makes a total of 6 misses out of 37 tries for a total of 16% miss rate on that specific day.

??

[Mike White]

??

Ok for the math illiterate Aslan, I showed how even your 36% guess only presented a overall increase in my % of 0.2%, since my activity on that day was less than half as bad as your guess, it would increase my miss % by about 0.1%

My comment said about 0%.

That is not the same thing as saying about 0.0%, or 0.00%.

Look up this thing called significant digits.