Politcal Ramblings

[fordman1]

Maybe we could get a law to get rid of gerrymandering.
Maybe we could get a law that says no person, organization or corp. can donate more than $100 and all must be sign and open to the public.
Get rid of lobbyist.

[Tony]

Maybe we could get a law to get rid of gerrymandering.
Maybe we could get a law that says no person, organization or corp. can donate more than $100 and all must be sign and open to the public.
Get rid of lobbyist.

Those would be great things but like term limits there is not a chance that any career politicians would vote those resolutions into law, there is a possibility Trump or Bernie would take executive action to limit both of these area's that promote widespread corruption. Hillary and the others no way.

[Aslan]

They already tried what you're suggesting and the Supreme Court over-ruled it in the Citizens United case.

Essentially, for those that don't know, McCain/Feingold limited certain attack adds leading up to an election. David Bossie (the conservative version of Paul Begala) was upset that Michael Moore was able to release Farenheit 9/11 that painted George W. Bush in a bad light leading up to elections so he made a film about Hilary Clinton and wanted to release it. So, fight ensued, and the court narrowly decided in favor of a more hands off approach to campaign finance.

And that is where we are now. There are no real limits on campaign finance...there's just a lot of reporting that has to be done to expose where the money is coming from. But even that doesn't really work because most PACs, instead of calling themselves "PAC supporting Bob Dole" or "Liberals for Environmental Extremism"...they label themselves things like "Citizens United" or "The Freedom Fund". It makes it sound like they're standing up for the people and for freedom....but also attempts to cover up who really is controlling the purse strings...whether it's the Koch brothers or Glenn Beck or some left-wing hippie group or trade unions...they can all hide behind a fictitious name. California does the same thing when naming propositions. They recently made a proposition to let out criminals from jail because jails are over-crowded and they don't want to build more. They called that the "Safer Schools and Neighborhoods Proposition".

The only way around Citizen's United is to go to a publically funded system...but I doubt the supreme court would find it constitutional and there's really no way to get Congress to enact meaningful regulations on campaign finance...much less amend the constitution. Unfortunately.

[fordman1]

Can't argue with what you say because the system is broken. One question how can you compare the Koch Biro's and trade unions? One is a group of people fighting for fair treatment the others are Robber Barron's. Who are the Left wing Hippies?

[Aslan]

HOW CAN EACH CANDIDATE WIN??

I figured I'd post this, because now that the field is a bit paired down, it's a bit easier. And when I saw Trump parade out Palin at a rally recently...I thought, "Hmm...could a Palin VP candidacy be in the cards?" Could a female VP pick for the Republican change the outcome? It didn't work for McCain...but the competition is weaker this time. Hmmm......

Assumptions:
Lets assume the candidates for this exercise are:
- Donald Trump (R)
- Bernie Sanders (D)
- Hilary Clinton (D)
- Ted Cruz (R)
- Marco Rubio (R)

So, what scenario(s) could lead to each of them becoming President? And REMEMBER....winning a primary is MUCH different than winning a general election. And that's why this is such an historic election...because there are no "moderates" in this field. Trump is the closest thing to a moderate and he's further right than any candidate in recent times excluding perhaps George W. Bush.

So lets start at the top:
"The Donald"
Trump needs to continue to use his appeal with angry, non-party-liner, conservatives and folks that see him as an "outsider". If he can paint his Republican challengers as out of touch with the realities most American's face (despite him flying around in a jet with golden bathroom fixtures)...he might be able to continue to the general election...where he can use the same rhetoric to attack either Sanders or Clinton who many moderates are going to see as "too liberal, too socialist". Look for Trump to try and find a black, latino, or female running mate (Palin?) to try and get some support from those groups in the general election.

So how does Trump win?
1) He has to avoid saying "Trumpisms". He's been getting by like he's made out of Teflon...he'll get a lot more pushback with the general election crowd.
2) He has to win back some of the Cruz/Paul type extreme conservatives by picking a conservative running mate...like a Palin, Coulter, or Bachman. Maybe even a Firorina. A female VP will negate some of the edge that Hilary has with female voters.

"FeeltheBurn" (Bernie Sanders)
Bernie uses the same technique as Cruz when it comes to his primary voters. He paints Hilary as the establishment/administration candidate who is going to continue Obama's generally unpopular 2nd term. In a primary race, that is easier...but still difficult given the Clinton dynasty. Now, in the General Election...that's where Bernie gets the edge...because he has a populist message that speaks to most Americans. With so much of the Nation's wealth in the hands of 20% of it's population, the populist message has really taken root and moderates can and will get on that ship. Bernie also may choose a black, latino, or female running mate to try and give those a groups a feeling of inclusiveness and if it's a woman...get some votes from those that are only voting for a female candidate because they want to see a female "make it".

How does Bernie win?
- He has to avoid drifting too far to the left. It's not penalizing him now, in front of a left-wing voting block...but most voters in the general election aren't registered Democrats or registered Republicans. Gun control is a good example. Bernie's stance on guns is hampering him in the primary but will be a positive in the general election.
- Elizabeth Warren

Hilary Clinton
I'd have never thought Hilary could lose this election if someone asked me a year ago. And I hate to see her fail in large part because of all the ultra-conservative attacks about Benghazi and all that other nonsense. But Hilary has a like-ability problem. Her base loves the idea of a female President and loves her husband. But very few people "like HER". That was a problem for John Kerry and a problem for Al Gore.

How does Hilary win?
1) She has to paint Bernie as a mad scientist type of socialist that will be so far to the left that Washington will get nothing done.
2) She has to stop defending and go on the offensive regarding the attacks on her. She has tried an approach where she just doesn't talk about it and tries to "ignore it and it'll eventually disappear with another news cycle. But it's not going away until the election is over...so she needs to expose the conservatives and their motives to the American people rather than defend herself by essentially saying, "Well, it's overblown, and I'm not going to talk about it." That makes her seem "superior" and even less likeable.
3) Elizabeth Warren

The reason I'm listing Elizabeth Warren (for both Bernie and Clinton) is that she is actually the "darling" of the Democratic party and of the populist movement. She'd be leading the polls for President right now. A Biden/Warren ticket would have been hard to beat. If she were the VP for Bernie...he could get some of the female vote and many of the more moderate Democrats. Warren on Hilary's ticket would further cement the female vote and give her some legitimacy with the party populists.

The Canadian (Ted Cruz)
Ted should be a lock to secure his party's nomination because he's as conservative as any politician with the exception of Rand Paul...but Cruz is not as far "out there" as Rand Paul on some of the libertarian type issues like drugs and the military.

But Cruz has a problem. He's far, far more conservative than the country is. In a primary, he fares very well. In a general election he is very vulnerable. He's pushing much of the same failed policies that George W. pushed...but too many Americans have realized GW's (actually Karl Rove's) policies were essentially a failure.

Cruz's best bet would have been to moderate his message and add another strong candidate to his ticket like Trump or Carson or Fiorina or Rubio or Paul or Kasich or Scott Walker or Paul Ryan. His problem is, a moderate VP hurts him in the primaries where he's behind. And a pick like Fiorina could help him in the primaries but kill him in the general election.

How does Cruz win?
- Continued unrest and turmoil. The middle east, Iran, Russia, China, North Korea...as long as there is unrest (or worse), he can take the baton from George W and convince the American leader that they might WANT a better candidate...but they NEED him.
- Same as Trump, a female VP candidate will get some female votes away from Hilary.

The Cuban (Marco Rubio)
Marco's problem is, he's a combination of Cruz and Jeb Bush. But, he's running against both Cruz and Jeb Bush. He'd make a great VP choice for Cruz or Jeb....and they'd make a good VP choice for him...but after tearing each other apart...I doubt that's happening.

How does Marco win?
- Trump needs to self destruct
- Cruz needs to be painted as too conservative to be viable
- Cruz could benefit from a female VP choice (Firorina, Palin, etc..)
- And in the general election...he'll need to moderate his message and paint himself as a moderate reformer who isn't George W. Bush...but also is opposed to Obama's policies.

[Aslan]

I had make two posts because of a 10,000 word limit.

What else could change the dynamic??
- Wars/Conflicts (very bad leaders are usually born out of chaos and war and poverty. GW would not have won a second term if it weren't for 9/11.
- Economy collapse (same as above)
- Black lives matter
- Immigration

Now, the bottom two are interesting because they are new (the top 2 have always been possible game changers throughout history). Immigration is an issue most Americans are torn on. We are a nation of immigrants with a Statue of Liberty that asks other nations to send us their poor, tired people who yearn to be free. Yet, we also as a country are starting to see our entire middle class collapse...where most new jobs created in the last 8 years in California going to illegal immigrants. Each side THINKS they know what America wants concerning immigration; but even most Americans aren't quite sure.

And Black lives matter...but not in the way you think. I'd love to support Bernie. He's my guy. He's the best of 5-15 evils. BUT....in an earlier debate when asked if Black Lives Matter or All Lives Matter. He and Hilary both said "Black Lives Matter". And they, as well as the President, as well as numerous liberal bloggers...have tried to explain that by pointing out what they meant....but their explanations make a couple assumptions that I don't think most Americans agree with.
1. That most Americans are racist.
2. That blacks are being hunted for sport by police officers on a regular basis.

Those SEEM very, very far fetched to most of us...but those ARE the assumptions used to explain why "All Lives Matter" is wrong. Who started black lives matter? It started after the Trayvon Martin killing/trial. But guess what....George Zimmerman was found not guilty in a court of law. Look at the list below:

1) Trayvon Martin- Gunned down by an idiot....but only after said idiot was attacked, punched, and pushed to the ground.
2) Ferguson, MS- Micheal Brown...shot by a cop AFTER Mr. Brown roughed up a convenience store clerk, stole merchandise, then tried to get a cop's firearm.
3) Guy in New York. A record a mile long....illegally selling cigarettes...dies of a heart condition while resisting arrest.
4) Man shoots at a van of black teens during an altercation at a gas station about their music.
5) Baltimore- Guy dies in a van after resisting arrest and carrying a knife.
6) Kid shot by cops because the kid was carrying a toy gun but had removed the parts on the toy gun that make it appear to police as a "toy".

The "problem" is...MOST AMERICANS....(i.e. the ones voting for you in the general election)...would look at the above list and probably not charge ANY of those white/latino men with murder. The general public has very little compassion for criminals, regardless of skin color. It's possible, that Black Lives Matter will cause such a stink during this election cycle that it'll backfire and people like me...will vote for Trump, because he's saying All Lives Matter and Blue (police) Lives Matter...and meanwhile Black Lives Matter is blocking freeways, irritating people, and generally making the same mistakes as were made during Occupy Wall Street. The Democratic candidates are out of touch on this issue...and if Black Lives Matter continue to force them left...they will suffer for it in the general election.

[JasonNJ]

Congrats Bowling God!!!! I know you have some problem being called that but it doesn't mean anything, just think of it this way, without your post a lot of entertainment value on the board would be gone and you would be sorely missed.

[fordman1]

Aslan maybe if you broke that up into 15 posts rather than 2 more people would read and respond to it.

[Aslan]

Thinning the Herd: Who drops out first?

For Democrats it's easy. O'Malley at this point is just spending the rest of his campaign money to promote himself and audition for wither a VP gig, a cabinet gig, or maybe a fun in the future (since he's relatively young).

For Republicans it's a bit more difficult. If I had to guess or I was a betting man...I'd say;
1) Rick Santorum- A solid 1-4 finish in Iowa could propel his campaign into New Hampshire and maybe South Carolina...but his stances are really more designed to excite the middle of the country (the red area, evangelicals, bible belt, etc...) and he's going to be very irrelevant if he can't get traction in Iowa or South Carolina.

2) Mike Huckabee- My favorite "person" in the race...but his crazy religious platforms are not going to get as little traction on the east coast as Santorum's will. He also needs a #1-#4 finish in Iowa...and a good showing in South Carolina to keep trucking along.

3) Jim Gilmore- "Who?" Exactly.

Now it gets trickier;
4) Ben Carson- He likely will stay in past Iowa...but his campaign has completely eroded and he really doesn't have a good "lane" other than the evangelical lane...and again, that lane doesn't start playing well until a little later. A strong finish in Iowa (#1-#4) would likely push Santorum and Huckabee out and those votes will not all go to Ben Carson...and even if they did...he's still about tied with Rubio for 3rd right now. Once Trump took his "outsider" lane away from him and Fiorina...Carson has really struggled. I think he'll finish 5th or 6th in Iowa and be out after South Carolina.

5) Carly Fiorina- At this point even she isn't egotistical enough to see a relevant shot. She'll probably finish < 4% in Iowa...and without any momentum at all is likely just pulling a Martin O'Malley and hoping for a VP nod or some other political relevance she can use to get a political gig of some kind or entertainment gig. She had momentum early, but she's simply a less experienced Ted Cruz clone and can't play the outsider card because Carson stole her thunder early and Trump is now dominating that lane. I predict, IF Trump falters...she would be a strong contender for the VP nod from the remaining candidates; especially Ted Cruz. The RNC knows that there is just too much excitement about a female President and to quell that...a female VP is almost mandatory...despite the horrible result of pairing Palin with McCain last time around.

The it gets really tricky;
6) Chris Christie- My Republican favorite going into this whole thing...but all he's been is a loud, obnoxious guy from New Jersey that is perpetually trying to convince a party that sees him as a moderate...that he in fact a very conservative governor. Very poor strategy. Had I been advising him, I'd have had him focus on his ability to get things done as a conservative in a blue state. I'd have had him constantly talk about police and how they're being treated unfairly due to this racial divide...and instead of going after Hillary Clinton every 6th word...which is just an easy applause line in the primaries...have him go after some of the really unpopular decisions by Obama and Eric Holder and whoever replaced him. It'll cost him the liberal black vote...but guess what? He wasn't getting that anyway!! His attempts to "out Trump Trump" and "out conservative Ted Cruz" have failed miserably. He can't stick around until June and hope that New Jersey gives him a bump. He'll be out sometime in March. He doesn't need the attention because he's already well-known...and he's not on any VP short lists unless maybe Bloomberg runs.

Bathroom break/Post Break for easier reading/digestion....

[Aslan]

Post Bathroom Break (continued);

Now it gets tougher but also easier. Tougher, because this could change depending on momentum. Easier because we know the primary schedule and where these guys are going to get their support (or lack there of).

7) Rand Paul- Big bummer for me as he's my pick for Republican candidate. I think after last night's solid performance, he'll surprise people in Iowa...I predict maybe a #4 finish (see below). But he'll at least let things play out until Kentucky holds their caucus March 5th...but he's just too radical and really...this terrorism focus killed his campaign.

That being said, my advanced prediction of the Iowa results (just to see how close I get vs. the polls) area as follows:
Republicans:
Trump; 33%
Cruz; 19%
Rubio; 8.9%
Paul; 8.2%
Carson; 8.1%
Bush; 6%
Huckabee; 5%
Santorum; 4.6%
Fiorina; 3.3%
Kasich; 3%
Christie; 0.8%
Gilmore; 0.1%

8) John Kasich- March 15th is when Ohio primaries occur. If he doesn't have momentum by mid-March, then he'll wait for Ohio to vote and then hope he gets picked up as a running mate given he's popular in a swing state.

9) Jeb Bush- He'll hold out until Florida votes March 15th...he has the money to let things drag out...but his best shot was to convince Rubio to join him as his VP...an all-Florida ticket would have been great for that key swing state...but instead, in this bizarre-world-election...he got sick of Trump making him look stupid and took it out on Marco...and there ended that bromance.

10) Marco Rubio- Marco's problem is he's soft on the ONE issue that Donald Trump has used to define this primary; immigration. He and Jeb have tried to appeal to conservatives and their sense of welcoming immigrants...but the anger over border security has bubbled over to a point...it really doesn't give Marco a lane to run in. He can't out conservative Ted Cruz...he's definitely not an outsider...and much of his would-be supporters are split between him and Bush. I don't see him sticking it out much into April...the writing will be on the wall by then.

That should make it a 2-way race between Trump and Cruz...officially. It already kinda is...

And that race will depend on a lot of things. Mainly, can Teflon Trump continue to say anything and everything about anyone and any person...twitter wars, going after conservative staples like right wing radio and Fox News...yet not go "just a bit too far". If Trump does suddenly exit...the race would become wide open for whomever is left. And to some extent...That's why I think a lot of these folks may ride things out until late March...because the country knows a meltdown is coming...we're waiting for it...we're waiting for that Ross Perot moment where Trump tells some fantastic story about the NSA and FBI threatening his family or something like that. He's already said he could shoot somebody on 5th avenue in broad daylight and still win...don't put it past him to test that.

Theres LOTS of conservatives I know...that are really not liking Trump as their candidate...some even threatening to vote for Hillary instead...which I doubt they will...but they may want to reconsider that. If Rand Paul loses...and John Kasich can't get traction...and Marco trailing Cruz by a fairly sizeable margin...Trump is easily the RNC's best shot at winning the general election. Cruz looks way, way better to primary voters...a Cruz/Fiorina ticket would excite them to no end! But that ticket has almost 0% chance in a general election against Hillary or Sanders.

Why? The tea party and far right of that party are selling something the majority of Americans are not buying. And whats sad is...they don't see it. They are on some kind of island...listening to podcasts of Mark Levin and Sean Hannity and Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh and ignoring every single piece of evidence. Each election they claim their candidate is a lock to win...yet their party was only able to win the popular vote once since 1992. Once in over two decades. And rather than moderate their policies...they actually are doing the reverse strategy...attacking their own. John Boehner, Mitch McConnell, Jeb Bush, Ronald Reagan, George HW Bush, George W Bush, etc... Right wing radio has taken an approach...that if you just elect a guy like Ted Cruz...a TRUE conservative...the country will throw a ticker tape parade. Nothing could be further from the truth.

1) The country doesn't believe in trickle down economics anymore. Karl Rove and George W...they failed at it...BIG time. Government got bigger, the debt went up, the economy collapsed to it's worst point since the great depression and the rich got richer and the poor got poorer. The ole fashion Reagan-esque Republicans could always run on tax cuts and usually win. Then they got rid of a lot of the taxes...now people don't care as much. The idea that if you give a billionaire 100 million dollars and he uses it to build a plant and put people to work...that era is dead. Global trade made it irrelevant.

2) Most people want affordable health care. The Republicans keep attacking Obamacare. What is "Obamacare"? It's the "Affordable Care Act". People don't like it, it's not perfect...but while simply making fun of it is good radio and good for Fox News ratings...the general electorate want an alternative solution. The Republicans don't have one. And even worse...their critique of it as an "entitlement" program ONLY works if seniors don't connect the dots to Medicare. Medicare is also, an entitlement program...it just happens to be the only one the Republicans won't touch...because old people vote.

3) The countries stance on social issues like Gay Rights and fair pay and closing the income gap...these are issues Republicans used to be able to either ignore or make fun of...with no consequences. The country's acceptance levels have changed over the last 20 years. We're a more secular country. The Supreme Court has already ruled on abortion and gay rights and Obamacare. Attacking these things now is not as popular as it would have been in 1990.

How does the "Grand Ole Party" convince young people to vote for their guy over Bernie Sanders? Bernie promises them healthcare, promises them affordable college, promises to close the income gap. And somehow do all of this AND stop global warming. The Republicans need something to sell. And it can't be tax cut, that well ran dry. Trump could win. It's a scary concept...but this country doesn't want the bull-poo right wing radio is shoveling...and once the entire country gets to vote (general election)...uh oh. No more applause from the peanut gallery when you say Benghazi. Your leading candidates are a millionaire investor who has said SO many arsanine things....that he's on the edge of electability...and a congressman from Texas who is part of a Congress with an 18% approval rating. The general electorate doesn't think 18% is something to be proud of...the way Cruz does.

Not sure how I'll vote. I like Bernie...but he's kinda cooky...and like Hillary I'm pretty sure as a white male...me getting gunned down by a homeless black ex-felon who Jerry Brown let out of prison early...will probably be looked at as my fault. And Hillary's foreign policy record is abysmal...and that's the nice way to say it. Rand Paul would be a welcome option, but that ain't likely to happen. Could I bring myself to vote for Trump? My head is starting to hurt just thinking about it.