Carrydown is not a factor in modern bowling!

[RobLV1]

Please read the latest article that I wrote for BTM where I give the empirical results of lane tapes which proves, once and for all, that CARRYDOWN IS NOT A FACTOR IN MODERN BOWLING!

[Aslan]

Please read the latest article that I wrote for BTM where I give the empirical results of lane tapes which proves, once and for all, that CARRYDOWN IS NOT A FACTOR IN MODERN BOWLING!

I WANT to read the article...but despite being a subscriber for a couple years in the past...I just can't justify spending another $35 on a bowling website when I don't seem to have the time to keep caught up with it. I chose to bite the bullet and invest in the annual XTraframe subscription...so I could watch the PBA50 and PWBA...and, like 2 years ago, I find myself WAAAY behind and trying to catch up. Last time I had the BTM subscription...I ended up 4-6 months behind trying to catch up on older articles.

And I just don't know how we can debate carrydown...when nearly every professional bowler says carrydown exists. I've heard about carrydown 3 times while watching the PBA50 and PWBA recently. Are the best bowlers in the World wrong? All of them??

And how do we get past the differences in league versus sport environment? On a sport shot...everyone is essentially throwing a resin sponge. I, logically, would agree that carrydown shouldn't be much of a factor. Even if everyone is throwing plastic spare balls at both corners...the "carrydown" would be minimal and pushed towards the corners. But when you change that environment to lesser experienced, house leagues...where as much as HALF the bowlers are throwing older resin, urethane, and plastic balls as strike balls...and that oil is being pushed up the center towards the headpin (as well as everywhere else because these bowlers miss often)?? I can't see the logic.

I dunno. Maybe I'll bite the bullet and get the BTM subscription once the PBA50 and PWBA seasons are over. But something like "carrydown"...it's kinda like "hitting up on the ball" or using 16lb equipment...even IF you're right....it's going to take a LOT of time and effort to really change the minds of the USBC and highest level bowlers. And without doing that, you run the risk of being a Slowinski "Drop Your Shoulder" type of "conspiracy theorist". You, like Slowinski, MAY be right...but there has to be buy-in. Have you considered approaching the USBC and having them look into the carrydown issue? They have the equipment and facilities...maybe after looking at your data they'd consider looking into it?

[bowl1820]

And I just don't know how we can debate carrydown...when nearly every professional bowler says carrydown exists. I've heard about carrydown 3 times while watching the PBA50 and PWBA recently. Are the best bowlers in the World wrong? All of them?

The question is not whether carrydown exists or not, IT DOES! To prove it all anyone has to do is walk down to the end of the lanes after a league and look you'll see it.

The question is whether or not there's enough carrydown present to influence ball motion. That's the debate.

One thing that causes problems in the debate though is, there has not been much empirical evidence gathered on the subject and what there is available has come from limited test samples and/or anecdotal evidence.

[Aslan]

After reading the article...I guess I can definitely see the data and agree with Rob's conclusions (regarding the 2ml and 3ml oil situation).

Granted...again...it's a very "tricky" data set given the data is after X games of league play at a center in Vegas. What was the % of bowlers throwing plastic or urethane as their strike ball? If that % is 0%-6%...makes sense. But is THAT league a fair representation of standard house leagues? Or, is that a fair representation of YOUR league? That's an open question. I've never bowled league in Vegas...but I have bowled in Vegas and watched league play...and I can tell you that the league make-up and centers there are AMAZINGLY different. I'd actually love to see an article where a Vegas league bowler goes to other areas of the country...like the "sweeps leagues" states like California and the bowling purist Midwest areas of St. Louis/Chicago/Detroit and the rural areas of flyover country...the South, the metro areas around New York/Philly/Boston. As someone who has bowled in multiple areas of the country...it is NOT the same environment.

Vegas centers are very well maintained. I know some Vegas league bowlers will disagree and issue their complaints about one center or another...but those centers are mostly in casinos that make millions of dollars a day. They can afford to put in new equipment, buy new machinery, etc...at the drop of the hat. They oil at LEAST once a day...usually multiple times a day. They put down much, much more oil to protect their lanes (from the hundreds of thousands of customers that come through their doors for leagues, sweeps, and open bowling). And from what I've seen of the league bowlers...you see mostly informed bowlers, that see bowling tournaments on a routine basis, host the USBC at least once every few years, with newer equipment. The "fun leagues"...not as prevalent.

But...while there are some "particulars" that I think need further addressing...lemme try to advance the conversation using the data given in the article and it's premise. I guess the biggest question I have is, "How do we use this revelation to change how we play the lanes?" I'll use myself as the example for the sake of simplicity. In the next post is a "hypothetical example" that is typical of the moves I might make on league night (and WHY). Perhaps you can answer a few questions...specifically;

1) When I make a hypothetical move/decision that you think is "wrong" or based on the wrong thought process, tell me what you'd suggest I (or whomever) should do differently.

2) If I make a move/decision that is "wrong"...or based on an incorrect decision (carrydown for example)...and it strikes....what could be the reason(s) for that result?

The whole concept...I find very curious. Because...well...first; hypothetical example for analysis:

[bowl1820]

After reading the article...I guess I can definitely see the data and agree with Rob's conclusions (regarding the 2ml and 3ml oil situation).

It's not 2 or 3 ml's, it's "units" of oil. There's a big difference, there are like about 60 Units in 1ml.

But is THAT league a fair representation of standard house leagues? Or, is that a fair representation of YOUR league? That's an open question.

Thus why Slowinski and Rob put a caveat in their respective articles.

Such as Joe's "Unless you come to a bowling center after hours of open play or a birthday party" or Rob's "Back ends that are cleaned insufficiently to begin with due to lane maintenance issues, back ends that are single-stripped instead of double-stripped, and other such anomalies that cause the back ends to not be as clean as they perhaps could be are different issues entirely and are not considered within the scope of this article."

Those "anomalies" right there describe more houses in this country, than ones that double strip backends and don't have hours of open play or a birthday parties.

[Aslan]

Assumptions:
Standard 4-person League. Three-Game format. One player absent from opposing team.

Arsenal (w/surface details):
Radical Reax Pearl (Surface = 4000 Abralon matte)
Ebonite Innovate (Surface = 2000 Abralon, Storm Step 2 compound, Resin polish)
Hammer Scandal Pearl (Surface = 500 Sia Air, Storm Step 1 compound, Resin polish)
Track 300A (Surface = 4000 Abralon, Storm Step 3 compound, Resin polish)

Warm-Up:
Take 2 shots on each lane. Line seems appropriate...3 strikes, one miss right that left a 10-pin.

Starting Line: Laydown (foul line) = 15. Target (arrows) = 11. Breakpoint (far tracers) = 8-10.

Game 1:
9 /, 7 2, 9 /. Started out with Reax Pearl, hitting target but missing right. Assumed carrydown or my line was off. Moved 1:2 (eyes:feet) RIGHT on each lane.
X, X, X, X, X, 8 /, 7 / 7. Pulled shot in 9th frame. Missed right in 10th frame both times.

Game 2:
6 /. Made good shot, but left a 2-4-5-8 bucket. Assumed line was breaking down. Decided to ball DOWN to Innovate. Moved 1:2 RIGHT*.
Laydown = 13. Target = 10. Breakpoint = 8-10.
* Normally I don't move right, but the switch from Crown Factory compound to Storm Step 2 has caused Innovate to go significantly longer than previous surface.
9 /. Left a 4-pin. Moved LEFT 1:1.
Laydown = 14. Target = 11. Breakpoint = 9-11.
8 1, 6 /, X, X, 5 3, X. Last two frames went through the nose. Moved 1:2 LEFT on both lanes.
Laydown = 13. Target = 12. Breakpoint = 9-11.
X, 6 /. Left 2-4-5-8 bucket on fill ball in 10th frame on good shot. Assume CARRYDOWN. Ball UP to Scandal Pearl. Stay on present line.

Game 3:
X, X, 6 2, X, 7 /, 9 -, X, 8 /, X, X 7 -. Non-strikes were bad shots; one miss right (6 2) and 3 pulled shots. The only pocket non-strike was the 9 - which was a 7-pin.

I tried to use a random data set from actual league play where I averaged "about" my present average and used all three of the usual balls I would progress through.

One of the biggest "QUESTIONS" I have about the theory of "no carrydown"...is that I have had a great deal of success balling UP to the Scandal Pearl in the 3rd game. IF there is no carrydown...balling UP, and staying in the same place...should be devastating or at the least require me to make some significant moves left. Yet, that's usually not the case. Of matter of fact, recent successes aside, the balling DOWN to the Innovate has been the least successful step in the process...WHICH...if the non-carrydown theory is correct...SHOULD be the most successful step....because the lanes ARE drying out...and the less aggressive option is going to be a success.

After reading the article (well-written by the way), there's really no way staying in the same place and balling UP should ever work. Correct?

[Aslan]

It's not 2 or 3 ml's, it's "units" of oil. There's a big difference, there are like about 60 Units in 1ml.

Yeah...I wasn't sure what a "unit of oil" was..."mL was a guess. A "wrong" guess by a factor of '60' it appears!

No wonder lane oil is so expensive. It probably lasts longer than toothpaste and shampoo and shaving cream combined.

Those "anomalies" right there describe more houses in this country, than ones that double strip backends and don't have hours of open play or a birthday parties.

I don't usually consider Bowl1820 "funny"....but that made me laugh.

I actually watched a center recently and the oil machine went down to about where the tracers are, stopped, and came back. Then, next lane. I hope there wasn't carrydown...cuz if there was...the center must be relying on evaporation to get rid of it.

[foreverincamo]

I'm not going to read thru all the posts like I normally do. Im just reacting to the title. Yes, there is carrydown, especially if bowlers are using urethane. Yes, it can make short patterns ( like the PBA Wolf ) play much longer after a while. And something I found out from the head mechanic at my summer league.: reactive resin balls can run over the carried-down oil while in high rev mode and turn the oil into small patches of a very tacky glue-like substance that not only is hard to clean up, but can make your shot turn left if you run it over.

[RobLV1]

I'm not going to read thru all the posts like I normally do. Im just reacting to the title. Yes, there is carrydown, especially if bowlers are using urethane. Yes, it can make short patterns ( like the PBA Wolf ) play much longer after a while. And something I found out from the head mechanic at my summer league.: reactive resin balls can run over the carried-down oil while in high rev mode and turn the oil into small patches of a very tacky glue-like substance that not only is hard to clean up, but can make your shot turn left if you run it over.

There are really two separate issues here:

1. No-one is disputing that you can see streaks and blotches of oil past the pattern. They are there, but they do not affect the reaction of reactive resin balls because they are just too low in volume. Centuries ago people came to the conclusion that the sun revolved around the earth based on what they saw each day: the sun appeared in the east and disappeared in the west. Then along came Gallileo who proved that, in fact, the earth revolves around the sun. The powers that be, the Catholic Church, did not like that because it did not fit in with their long-held beliefs. They threw him in jail, and for as long as they could, they kept their beliefs based on the misleading daily evidence.

2. The reason that short patterns seem to play longer after a while is that most bowlers can't bring themselves to play far enough to the right on the fresh oil: it's simply too scary. So, once the oil starts drying up, the balls start to burn up and lose energy, seeming to go straighter. Since most players cannot move left on a short pattern, the only thing left for them to do is to move right into the scary no-man's land where they should have been playing in the first place.

[Amyers]

It's not 2 or 3 ml's, it's "units" of oil. There's a big difference, there are like about 60 Units in 1ml.



Thus why Slowinski and Rob put a caveat in their respective articles.

Such as Joe's "Unless you come to a bowling center after hours of open play or a birthday party" or Rob's "Back ends that are cleaned insufficiently to begin with due to lane maintenance issues, back ends that are single-stripped instead of double-stripped, and other such anomalies that cause the back ends to not be as clean as they perhaps could be are different issues entirely and are not considered within the scope of this article."

Those "anomalies" right there describe more houses in this country, than ones that double strip backends and don't have hours of open play or a birthday parties.

I spend way to much time in bowling alleys so I'm usually there when the lanes are oiled. In one house I bowled at the lane machine went all the way to the end and then they brought a lane mop out and cleaned the backend again one of the higher scoring houses I've bowled in. Usually I see some mixture of the machine not go to the backend at all or only once and no moping. I have seen the machine run twice on the backends but it's rare anywhere I bowl.