Quick Statistical Test with 11 months in...

[Aslan]

Recently there was some "discussion" about spare shooting and such...and it got me thinking..."Why AM I still just shooting 70% at single-pin spares?"

A couple hypothesis:

1) Because I'm stubbornly NOT buying a plastic spare ball.
We'll table that one for now since I can't statistically analyze that.

2) It is somehow tied to strike %.

3) It is the result of my home center changing from wood lanes to synthetics.

4) It's somewhat of an aberration...and has actually been steadily improving month by month.

So, First Test: "What is the "trend"?" Using data from January through June...has the % increased, decreased, or held steady?

Jan. = 69%
Feb. = 74%
March = 51%
April = 64%
May = 75%
June = 77%

Hmmm. It has shown a bit of an increase in the last couple months...but nothing I'd call statistically significant. Trending upward though.

Okay, what about Strike %? Has my struggles being able to strike led to a lower single-pin spare % because I'm forced to shoot more of them?

Jan. = 32%
Feb. = 43%
March = 35%
April = 33%
May = 35%
June = 34%

So here we see that the strike % is actually trending slightly down if not flat...so strike % doesn't seem to affect the spare % much at all. If anything, the slight downward trend in strike % is giving me more opportunities to practice spare shooting and more opportunities to MAKE them as much as miss them.

Okay....one thing that has changed in my game is my transition from a high loft/speed dominant bowler to a more traditional type of bowler. That change occurred after my lesson with bowling coach to the stars "Rob M.". So what affect did that change have on the spare %/strike %??

Pre-Rob Lesson (high loft/speed dominant)
Single-Pin spare % = 59%
Strike % = 36%

Post-Rob Lesson (more traditional stroker style)
Single-Pin spare % = 72%
Strike % = 34%

So, while the strike % might have dipped slightly...if at all...the spare shooting has improved DRAMATICALLY after that change/lesson.

But...there was one more REALLY important change that occurred during this data collection...my home center went from wood lanes to synthetics lanes. That could affect not only my spare shooting by my strike rate as well!! So lets see those numbers:

Primarily Wood Lanes
Single-Pin spare % = 63%
Strike % = 35%

Synthetic Lanes
Single-Pin spare % = 77%
Strike % = 34%

Again...a slight (if any) reduction in strike rate...but a dramatic rise in single-pin spare shooting %!

So what do these numbers mean (if anything)?

Well, one could deduce that the change to wood lanes has had less affect on my reactive resin spare ball and thus it's not moving around as much...thus an increase from 63% to 77%. Yet, I think the change pre/post Rob's lesson has more to do with it going from 59% to 72%. And it would make sense that my focus on accuracy (my Earl Anthony model) post Rob's lesson...as well as the fact that spare shooting takes practice and it SHOULD get better with practice...is more of a factor than wood to synthetic lane variation.

So of the original hypothesis, I feel this data most supports #4...that spare shooting has improved with time...and the 70% number is artifically low due to the fact that I simply wasn't as good at it in January as I am now. And one would expect my single-pin spare shooting to increase 1.33% each month.

Now, what I didn't do (because this was a quick and dirty little test) was break it down to ONLY corner spares. Currently, the single-pin breakdown is as follows (in order of most often left to least often left). The color purple indicates those I would hook into with my strike ball and the color red indicates those I throw my low level reactive resin "spare" ball at (primarily):

10-pin = 58%
6-pin = 73%
4-pin = 72%
7-pin = 60%
5-pin = 85%
3-pin = 76%
2-pin = 81%
9-pin = 81%
8-pin = 80%
1-pin = 71%

Adding those up, that would make me about 72% with the right-side spares and 75% left side. If I adjust them to take out the ones that I don't tend to leave and give more weight to the 10-pin which i leave 2-3x as much as the 6, 4, 7...it's more like 69% for right side spares and 75% for left side. Of all of them...only the 8, 9, and 10 make me nervous. The 8 and 9 because it's sort of an "in between" in my targeting system. But the 10-pin is the scary one...there are nights when mentally I just can't hit it....like it's got a magnetic field around it....miss left, miss left, miss left, gutter, miss left, gutter, etc... Amazed the 7-pin is so low...it doesn't make me nervous at all. Only a "little" because I usually have to loft the gutter to hit it...but still...I would think that one would be higher than 60%.

So...there ya go!! Numbers, numbers, numbers!!! A Mudpuppy nightmare!!

But remember folks...despite have the second most posts (to Iceman)...maybe 3rd behind Bowl1820...I haven't even been bowling one full year yet. If I have been bowling 12 years and still only 60% at picking up 10-pins...THAT would trouble me...a GREAT DEAL. The key for me is when I stop seeing that 1.33% increase per month. THAT is when I need to stop and say, "Okay....whats going on here...I've hit a wall...I need to make that "step change"...maybe thats a better system...better timing...better balance...or even, dare I say it...a PLASTIC SPARE BALL!!!

[vdubtx]

.......Plethora of stufffffffffffff.....

So what do these numbers mean (if anything)?

...........plethora of stuff.................

Means you aren't striking enough. You aren't accurate enough yet getting the ball into the pocket. Keep at it grasshopper. You will get there, you have come a long way.

You already know the answer to the solution. You and a couple others, just don't want to admit that plastic is the way to go for spares. Missing left on 10 pin is sure sign that you can't stop ball from hooking away from it at last second, plastic takes that out of the equation.

Like I said, you already know the answer, you stated it opening up your novella of a post.

[Aslan]

Means you aren't striking enough. You aren't accurate enough yet getting the ball into the pocket.

Had you actually read the super awesome post...instead of mocking it...you may have drawn a different conclusion.

For example, you conclusion was I'm "not accurate enough getting the ball into the pocket".

Yet, there's no statistical evidence to support that conclusion. Since I only portrayed single spare %...60%, 80%, etc.. could have been pocket hits that resulted in a single-pin spare opportunity. Nearly 300 of those opportunities were single 10-pins...wouldn't I need to accurately hit the pocket to leave a single 10-pin??

Keep at it grasshopper. You will get there, you have come a long way.

Aww...whatever...I suck. But...as the title points to...I'm still in my rookie season!!

You already know the answer to the solution. You and a couple others, just don't want to admit that plastic is the way to go for spares. Missing left on 10 pin is sure sign that you can't stop ball from hooking away from it at last second, plastic takes that out of the equation.

Possibly. I can't say you're wrong on that. And yes, there have been a few nights...where I saw that type of reaction. In the VBT this month...we played at a center...and I've never seen this before in my life...but that damn slingshot got out to the 1-2 board area ...and it JUMPED! I don't have the revs to make that happen...so it must have been BONE dry out there! BUT....like I said in the other thread...I DID use a plastic ball for some time late last year. And it didn't really help me pick up more spares. If I missed...I missed because I pulled or pushed the shot.

Maybe NOW...maybe now it would help. We'll see. I have not only NOT ruled it out...but actually PLAN to get a plastic spare ball at some point. AFTER I get my timing/approach/release down.

Like I said, you already know the answer, you stated it opening up your novella of a post.

It's supposed to be ENTERTAINING!!! Chris Barnes would like it. It has numbers and stuff.

[JJKinGA]

I love this post and I hate this post.
I think the effort you make at trying to udnertand and analyze is great. We all need to think about things clearly.
What I hate is the poor and improper use of statistics and statistical phrases. Statistically significant is not an opinion - it is a mathematical construct. Likewise, when you are considering multiple variables there are proepr tools to distinguish if a hypthesis is possible or not. To simply say I think coaching is more likely that a lane surface change is ignoring the data.
(I would have done some analysis for you, but you didn't post the full data, just percentages).

Given the flavor of the posts you make, I do think you would enjoy learning basic statistics.

[Aslan]

Given the flavor of the posts you make, I do think you would enjoy learning basic statistics.

Actually, I've taken advanced statistics.

I "chose" not to do t-tests, z-tests, p-tests, and the full range of statistical analysis for primarily 3 reasons:
1) Nobody (except you or I) would either understand nor care.
2) It was irrelevant to the outcome(s).
3) The sample size (%s) was far too small to make any logical, statistical conclusion.

I said it was "statistically insignificant" because if you look at 6 data points, depending on how certain you want to be (95%, 97%, 99%), 3 of them are in the 70s, 2 in the 60s, and one in the 50s...with no obvious trend...any statistical analysis would be an exercise in futility. Simply graphing the data (which I did) showed an overall positive trend with spare pick-up %...but the strike % trendline was either flat or slightly declining.

Now yes, you could analyze every single score from all 6 months...and then run a statisical test to determine if it's a "normal" distribution (which I'd predict it's not since it should be increasing with gained skill and experience)...or to determine 200 other statistical parameters...but nobody is going to care and it won't change the analysis nor conclusions as far as I can see.

[fortheloveofbowling]

Being a lover of sports and sports history i love statistics. But as the saying goes there are lies, bigger lies, and then there are stats. Anytime we bowl the most important thing is to ask ourselves how did i bowl at the end of the session. I can tell you most of the time i score better than what i think i threw it. Do you keep up with a pocket percentage stat? That would be a good one to keep up with. Anyway, it is interesting to have all those numbers. For me i would have to make notes on some of the single pin leaves as to why i left it.

[Amyers]

Actually, I've taken advanced statistics.

I "chose" not to do t-tests, z-tests, p-tests, and the full range of statistical analysis for primarily 3 reasons:
1) Nobody (except you or I) would either understand nor care.
2) It was irrelevant to the outcome(s).
3) The sample size (%s) was far too small to make any logical, statistical conclusion.

I said it was "statistically insignificant" because if you look at 6 data points, depending on how certain you want to be (95%, 97%, 99%), 3 of them are in the 70s, 2 in the 60s, and one in the 50s...with no obvious trend...any statistical analysis would be an exercise in futility. Simply graphing the data (which I did) showed an overall positive trend with spare pick-up %...but the strike % trendline was either flat or slightly declining.

Now yes, you could analyze every single score from all 6 months...and then run a statisical test to determine if it's a "normal" distribution (which I'd predict it's not since it should be increasing with gained skill and experience)...or to determine 200 other statistical parameters...but nobody is going to care and it won't change the analysis nor conclusions as far as I can see.

Oh goody a statistical argument now where are the post on nuclear physics and I know Iceman and some of the others have the bases covered on theology and politics in another post what next.

[Shaneshu87]

Oh goody a statistical argument now where are the post on nuclear physics and I know Iceman and some of the others have the bases covered on theology and politics in another post what next.

i could do a post on nuclear physics... not sure how i would tie it into bowling but i'll try lmao

[vdubtx]

i could do a post on nuclear physics... not sure how i would tie it into bowling but i'll try lmao

Well, I did hear Hammer was taking the next jump in core technologies and jumping from carbon fiber to plutonium cores in their next release of balls. Sounds like a match for a new thread to me.

[Shaneshu87]

Well, I did hear Hammer was taking the next jump in core technologies and jumping from carbon fiber to plutonium cores in their next release of balls. Sounds like a match for a new thread to me.

nothing hits like a nuke