Probable that more than half of Motiv banned balls exceeded specs

[NewToBowling]

https://www.11thframe.com/news/article/8315

I'm not a technical guy so can't confirm or refute the data but they are saying at least 50% and could be up to 90% of the two balls exceeded the differential specs.

If that's the case, it was not quality control but something more...

[Aslan]

Nice link NTB.

As I've stated before, I am very "worried" that this is more than what people are assuming it is. Not to be a conspiracy theorist...but having worked in manufacturing and having been trained in crisis management...Motiv's response lacked crucial pieces of information that, if this were simply a manufacturing issue, would have certainly been included in their initial statement.

[vdubtx]

That is not good news for MOTIV. Using the mathematical process of analysis shows that up to 92% of balls could have been out of spec depending on which standard deviation was used. Yikes! That has got to hurt MOTIV's QC team.

[Aslan]

That is not good news for MOTIV. Using the mathematical process of analysis shows that up to 92% of balls could have been out of spec depending on which standard deviation was used. Yikes! That has got to hurt MOTIV's QC team.

You're missing the point VDub. 99% of VWs passed emissions testing....because they were designed to pass the emissions test. 92% failure rate indicates an intent. Motiv never denied intent. Motiv never said it was a manufacturing problem nor a QC problem. That's why I warned everyone in the other thread, be careful what assumptions you're working off of. The manufacturing break down was an "assumption". It was a reasonable assumption...especially if you believe there was no way they actually meant to do what they did....maybe the ONLY reasonable assumption truth be told.

But it's getting more and more clear that this was intentional, Motiv knew, possibly their athletes knew, and Motiv just felt that the USBC would never bother checking.

Do you have "X feelings" about it yet?

It was funny reading the Facebook page.....many Motivatiors were trying to use the mathematic argument...that 0.0604 was mathematically 0.060. That's funny if you're a nerd...which I am. But the real analogy is blood alcohol level. If the limit is 0.8....and you blow a 0.85....it doesn't round down to 0.8. Yes, mathematically speaking....using significant figures rules...a 0.05 after an even number rounds down....but try explaining that to the Highway Patrol. It's a "limit"...a "ceiling". It doesn't matter how much OVER the limit you are...if you're over, you get a ride in a fancy police car.

I wish the PBA would have taken the bull by the horns and managed this better. If they got out in front of it early...brought the USBC, Motiv, and the other manufacturers to the table...by now we would be discussing the Motiv slap on the wrist and the new USBC specifications. Now I fear it's too late for that.

[Aslan]

Another thing I found interesting when I was researching this...watch the two majors that Motiv athletes Gary Falkner and Graham Fach won. Watch the ball motion as it goes through the pin deck.

It "SEEMS" as though Scott Norton was making better shots as was Ciminelli...but the Jackal Carnage was hitting light in the pocket....but appeared to almost "accelerate" as it moved through the pins. All the other balls, when they hit light...deflected. The Jackal Carnage never deflected. If Falkner was anywhere near the pocket...the ball would power through and cause a lot of pin action.

I noticed the similar effect with Fach against Ciminelli. Ciminelli made better shots...but was struggling on the one lane. Fach's Jackal Carnage....again...almost accelerated as it moved through the pins...even though of his shots hit "light".

Even against E.J. Tackett...their fellow Motiv bowler. Tackett couldn't get either of his two weaker balls to stay right of the pocket. Maybe the lanes were more beat up over there....welcome to the disadvantage of being a RHer....but when Tackett pulled his shots...the ball went crazy left. If he tried to get it out to the right...it missed the pocket. Not saying Tackett deserved to win...he was really struggling...physically and mentally...it's just strange the way the Carnage was behaving...no deflection...and a ball that almost seemed to accelerate as it made contact with the pins. Not sure if that could be the result of the increased differential or not...probably not...but I had never see so many light hits carry for one bowler yet leave flat 7-pins for everyone else.

[Amyers]

You're missing the point VDub. 99% of VWs passed emissions testing....because they were designed to pass the emissions test. 92% failure rate indicates an intent. Motiv never denied intent. Motiv never said it was a manufacturing problem nor a QC problem. That's why I warned everyone in the other thread, be careful what assumptions you're working off of. The manufacturing break down was an "assumption". It was a reasonable assumption...especially if you believe there was no way they actually meant to do what they did....maybe the ONLY reasonable assumption truth be told.

But it's getting more and more clear that this was intentional, Motiv knew, possibly their athletes knew, and Motiv just felt that the USBC would never bother checking.

Do you have "X feelings" about it yet?

It was funny reading the Facebook page.....many Motivatiors were trying to use the mathematic argument...that 0.0604 was mathematically 0.060. That's funny if you're a nerd...which I am. But the real analogy is blood alcohol level. If the limit is 0.8....and you blow a 0.85....it doesn't round down to 0.8. Yes, mathematically speaking....using significant figures rules...a 0.05 after an even number rounds down....but try explaining that to the Highway Patrol. It's a "limit"...a "ceiling". It doesn't matter how much OVER the limit you are...if you're over, you get a ride in a fancy police car.

I wish the PBA would have taken the bull by the horns and managed this better. If they got out in front of it early...brought the USBC, Motiv, and the other manufacturers to the table...by now we would be discussing the Motiv slap on the wrist and the new USBC specifications. Now I fear it's too late for that.

How is it that you expect the PBA to take the bull by the horns? The PBA is a much, much, much smaller organization than the USBC and is darn near bankrupt on a going basis. I've said all along this wasn't just a manufacturing issue if you really cared if the balls were over the limit you would have had to have extremely tight quality control to make a ball right at the limit and even if you did the price of that ball would have had to be much higher if your going to throw out a significant portion of each batch. They much like everyone else just figured it would never come to light and for a long time they were correct that core has been in multiple balls before these two. I'm sure motiv at the very least knew some percentage of these balls were over the limit from the get go and I'm sure if anyone goes back and finds some undrilled Raptor Talon's they were over too. As far whether the athletes knew or not I don't really know, will never know for sure, nor does it make any real difference because even if they did know there were no PBA rules violated anyway.
The PBA did the only thing they could by their rule book and that was move along.

I do think it would be very interesting if the USBC ramps up ball testing exactly how many of these .58 diff balls and ultra low RG balls are actually above or below their corresponding limits.

[NewToBowling]

Another thing I found interesting when I was researching this...watch the two majors that Motiv athletes Gary Falkner and Graham Fach won. Watch the ball motion as it goes through the pin deck.

It "SEEMS" as though Scott Norton was making better shots as was Ciminelli...but the Jackal Carnage was hitting light in the pocket....but appeared to almost "accelerate" as it moved through the pins. All the other balls, when they hit light...deflected. The Jackal Carnage never deflected. If Falkner was anywhere near the pocket...the ball would power through and cause a lot of pin action.

I noticed the similar effect with Fach against Ciminelli. Ciminelli made better shots...but was struggling on the one lane. Fach's Jackal Carnage....again...almost accelerated as it moved through the pins...even though of his shots hit "light".

Even against E.J. Tackett...their fellow Motiv bowler. Tackett couldn't get either of his two weaker balls to stay right of the pocket. Maybe the lanes were more beat up over there....welcome to the disadvantage of being a RHer....but when Tackett pulled his shots...the ball went crazy left. If he tried to get it out to the right...it missed the pocket. Not saying Tackett deserved to win...he was really struggling...physically and mentally...it's just strange the way the Carnage was behaving...no deflection...and a ball that almost seemed to accelerate as it made contact with the pins. Not sure if that could be the result of the increased differential or not...probably not...but I had never see so many light hits carry for one bowler yet leave flat 7-pins for everyone else.

Kind of proves that the bowlers didn't know. If they did, EJ Tackett should have had a Jackal Carnage in his arsenal (not sure if he did or not). We know him and Ronnie Russell are their top athletes.

[Mike White]

https://www.11thframe.com/news/article/8315

I'm not a technical guy so can't confirm or refute the data but they are saying at least 50% and could be up to 90% of the two balls exceeded the differential specs.

If that's the case, it was not quality control but something more...

That website is using statics in an improper way.

USBC has stated the average of balls measured was 0.0604, they also stated that anything above a 0.6% of non-conformance was grounds for rejection.

I haven't seen anything about standard deviations.

If you take a sample of 150 balls, where 144 of them measure in exactly 0.060, and 6 of them measure in at 0.070, you get an average of 0.0604, with a standard deviation of 0.002.

There is no way from that data you can expect 50% of all balls to be over 0.060.

The graph assumes the distribution of "errors" (balls not exactly 0.060) will be 50% high, and 50% low.

A lawyer would say... objection! facts not in evidence.

If on the other hand you sample 150 balls, where 75 measure 0.060, and 75, measure .0.608, you get an average of 0.0604, and a standard deviation of 0.0004.

The smaller standard of deviation indicates that a larger % of balls are close to the average.

[Aslan]

Kind of proves that the bowlers didn't know. If they did, EJ Tackett should have had a Jackal Carnage in his arsenal (not sure if he did or not). We know him and Ronnie Russell are their top athletes.

Actually, no. Tackett has an extremely high rev rate so he was using weaker equipment on purpose.

Remember, just because a ball is strong, doesn't make it the right ball to use. Tackett has a very high rev release...the Jackal and Carnage would have likely WAY over-reacted for him. Fach and Falkner have less revs...Falkner has a higher speed delivery...so they helped him (and Fach).

As to Amyers post...again, I fundamentally disagree with his premise that it doesn't matter if the athletes knew and I would go two steps further and say:

1) Knowlingly throwing equipment an athlete knows is in violation of a rule (PBA or otherwise) violates the PBA Code of Conduct (see the other thread for references).

2) It will change the mindset of may bowlers currently on the side of Motiv. There are thousands of people out there that think this is just some minor mistake that the "poor little company Motiv" made and the big bad USBC is going after them unfairly. If it turns out Motiv KNEW...and their athletes KNEW...then there could be all kinds of very, very bad results.

To answer Amyer's question about the PBA....the PBA is the ONLY organization that can arbitrate this in an unbiased way. They have the authority to investigate the athletes...and to sit down with the USBC and ALL manufacturers....and come up with a suitable path forward that helps the sport.

The USBC CAN'T do that...because it's THEIR rules. Especially after Motiv tried to "one up them" by posting their last press release. And no, they can't use the "we don't have any money excuse"....because if they think they're broke now...imagine how MORE broke they'll be when Motiv goes under, or the other manufacturers sue Motiv, or the fans assume there is no integrity left in the sport.

The PBA has a VESTED INTEREST in shaping the USNC rules, ensuring the survival of Motiv, and making the other manufacturers whole. If it were ME mediating it...just to give you an example...I would do this:

1) USBC re-certifies Jackal and Jackal Carnage and increases maximum differential to 0.065.
2) Motiv pays $32,000 fine to the USBC. No suspensions.
3) Motiv athletes keep their titles they won throwing that equipment, but compensates each competing manufacturer that had sponsored athletes in the last 3 majors. Roughly, $100,000 per company (Brunswick, Ebonite International, Storm Products) per major. Roughly $900,000 that will be split with 50% going to the manufactuer and the other 50% to the competing sponsored athletes.
4) All manufactures and PBA athletes agree not to sue Motiv nor the USBC nor the PBA.
5) The manufactures agree to increased quality control of their products and that if the new 0.065 is ever exceeded in USBC testing (bump failure rate from 0.6% to 10%) again, the manufacturer will face much higher and more severe penalties, first offense being $1 million and a 1-year suspension from the USBC and PBA. Motiv will start out at the 2nd level of that fine structure given this incident.

See...something along those lines...puts this entire issue to bed. Motiv has to pay for their indiscretions...but not as much as a recall would cost and it keeps them in the game. The other manufacturers won't feel cheated, because they're getting restitution without a lengthy court battle. The USBC is vindicated, despite allowing the Motiv balls to stay in circulation. Everyone wins!

But instead...we're heading for a showdown...a wild west gunslinger fight in the street. Where the PBA watches from a nearby saloon window...while one of their vital sponsors gets gunned down. If the USBC backs down, the other manufacturers will sue Motiv and the USBC. If the USBC doesn't back down, Motiv could lose everything...then the USBC and PBA lost a massive income source. Somebody has to step in...and the only logical choice...is the PBA. In my opinion.

[Amyers]

Actually, no. Tackett has an extremely high rev rate so he was using weaker equipment on purpose.

Remember, just because a ball is strong, doesn't make it the right ball to use. Tackett has a very high rev release...the Jackal and Carnage would have likely WAY over-reacted for him. Fach and Falkner have less revs...Falkner has a higher speed delivery...so they helped him (and Fach).

As to Amyers post...again, I fundamentally disagree with his premise that it doesn't matter if the athletes knew and I would go two steps further and say:

1) Knowlingly throwing equipment an athlete knows is in violation of a rule (PBA or otherwise) violates the PBA Code of Conduct (see the other thread for references).

2) It will change the mindset of may bowlers currently on the side of Motiv. There are thousands of people out there that think this is just some minor mistake that the "poor little company Motiv" made and the big bad USBC is going after them unfairly. If it turns out Motiv KNEW...and their athletes KNEW...then there could be all kinds of very, very bad results.

To answer Amyer's question about the PBA....the PBA is the ONLY organization that can arbitrate this in an unbiased way. They have the authority to investigate the athletes...and to sit down with the USBC and ALL manufacturers....and come up with a suitable path forward that helps the sport.

The USBC CAN'T do that...because it's THEIR rules. Especially after Motiv tried to "one up them" by posting their last press release. And no, they can't use the "we don't have any money excuse"....because if they think they're broke now...imagine how MORE broke they'll be when Motiv goes under, or the other manufacturers sue Motiv, or the fans assume there is no integrity left in the sport.

The PBA has a VESTED INTEREST in shaping the USNC rules, ensuring the survival of Motiv, and making the other manufacturers whole. If it were ME mediating it...just to give you an example...I would do this:

1) USBC re-certifies Jackal and Jackal Carnage and increases maximum differential to 0.065.
2) Motiv pays $32,000 fine to the USBC. No suspensions.
3) Motiv athletes keep their titles they won throwing that equipment, but compensates each competing manufacturer that had sponsored athletes in the last 3 majors. Roughly, $100,000 per company (Brunswick, Ebonite International, Storm Products) per major. Roughly $900,000 that will be split with 50% going to the manufactuer and the other 50% to the competing sponsored athletes.
4) All manufactures and PBA athletes agree not to sue Motiv nor the USBC nor the PBA.
5) The manufactures agree to increased quality control of their products and that if the new 0.065 is ever exceeded in USBC testing (bump failure rate from 0.6% to 10%) again, the manufacturer will face much higher and more severe penalties, first offense being $1 million and a 1-year suspension from the USBC and PBA. Motiv will start out at the 2nd level of that fine structure given this incident.

See...something along those lines...puts this entire issue to bed. Motiv has to pay for their indiscretions...but not as much as a recall would cost and it keeps them in the game. The other manufacturers won't feel cheated, because they're getting restitution without a lengthy court battle. The USBC is vindicated, despite allowing the Motiv balls to stay in circulation. Everyone wins!

But instead...we're heading for a showdown...a wild west gunslinger fight in the street. Where the PBA watches from a nearby saloon window...while one of their vital sponsors gets gunned down. If the USBC backs down, the other manufacturers will sue Motiv and the USBC. If the USBC doesn't back down, Motiv could lose everything...then the USBC and PBA lost a massive income source. Somebody has to step in...and the only logical choice...is the PBA. In my opinion.

You seem to be caught up on this rule thing where the only rule was that the balls have to be USBC Approved which they were at the time of use. Think of it like this because it happens all the time. An athlete is given a list of items that are banned in most sports as performance enhancing as long as what they are taking isn't on that list they can take it even if it is performance enhancing. If the NFL or as recently happened the Women's Tennis Organization adds the item to the banned list you have to quit using it but they don't go back and ban you for using it in the first place. If you continue to use it after it has been added to the banned list you get suspended.

The PBA doesn't want to get involved here and I don't blame them and I seriously doubt the USBC is seriously interested what the PBA has to say about their manufacturing limits. The USBC probably has 50 employees for every PBA employee and the PBA membership is .001 of the USBC's. Why would the USBC seriously even think about what the PBA thinks? I really think your seriously overthinking what the PBA has in employee count. The PBA mostly consists of a few stuffed shirts to talk in front of their board, Some people in negotiating contracts with TV and commercial sales and that's about it.

If the USBC tried to go back and increase the limits to let the balls back in after removing them from the approved list they would get crucified. You don't have to worry about the manufactures suing each other as their is nothing to sue over but I could see the possibility of the people who own the balls filing some class action suit at some point. I'm beginning to think the most likely outcome is a bankruptcy on Motiv's part especially if some of the 4 to 5 million numbers I've heard are true.